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This might be one of the more unusual charity benefits I have every heard of.

Read the linked article for more information but the short story is this: a man is going to bet on every race TwinSpires.com offers anywhere in the world in one day with all net winnings going to charity.

about 2 hours ago Emd3_tiny MattGSeattle 2 comments

A great interview with Mike Repole, the owner of Uncle Mo, the impressive winner of a juvenile Maiden Special Weight race at Saratoga last Saturday.

about 7 hours ago Emd3_tiny MattGSeattle 0 comments

2010 Forego: Entries, Post Positions and Odds

The Woodward might be the "big name" race of the day on Saturday but the Forego looks to be the most competitive of the weekend's Grade 1 action. 

Grade 1 Forego
Saratoga
7 furlongs
Three year olds and up
Purse: $250,000
Post-time: 5:14 EDT

#

PP

Horse

Jockey

ML

2

1

Bribon (FR)

Gomez, G.

4/1

1

2

Vineyard Haven

Garcia, A.

2/1

1a

3

Girolamo

Velasquez, C.

2/1

3

4

Big Drama

Coa, E.

4/1

4

5

Here Comes Ben

Solis, A.

10/1

5

6

Charitable Man

Dominguez, R.

12/1

6

7

Omniscient

Borel, C.

12/1

7

8

Starforaday

Maragh, R.

30/1

8

9

Warrior's Reward

Leparoux, J.

6/1

9

10

Checklist

Velazquez, J.

15/1

10

11

You and I Forever

Castellano, J.

20/1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'll update the chart with the morning line odds when they become available.

I haven't a clue as to what direction I'm going to ultimately end up going in this race but here's a quick take on some of the thoughts that popped into my head when I went through the field the first time:

Continue reading this post »

0 comments |

2010 Woodward: Entries, Post Positions and Odds

Quality Road will attempt to bounce back after his defeat in the Whitney when he takes on six rivals in the Grade 1 Woodward at Saratoga.  Mine That Bird will get a pair of blinkers and a new jockey (Rajiv Maragh) for the Woodward, although one wonders if what he really needs is a bit of class relief. 

Grade 1 Woodward Handicap
Saratoga
1 1/8 miles
Three year olds and up
Purse: $750,000
Post-time: 5:48 EDT

PP

Horse

Jockey

ML

1

Convocation

Castellano, J

6/1

2

Mine That Bird

Maragh, R.

10/1

3

Quality Road

Velazquez, J.

1/4

4

Arcodoro

Cohen, D.

30/1

5

Indian Dance

Desormeaux, K.

20/1

6

Tranquil Manner

Garcia, A.

15/1

7

Mythical Power

Garcia, M.

12/1

4 comments |

In the Breeding Shed

AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND - FEBRUARY 01: Lot 320 by Giant's Causeway (USA) out of Champagne goes under the hammer for 875,000, February 01, 2005 at the National Yearling sales in Karaka, Auckland, New Zealand.  Giant's Causeway is the current top ranked sire by progeny earnings in North America.  (Photo by Michael Bradley/Getty Images)

AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND - FEBRUARY 01: Lot 320 by Giant's Causeway (USA) out of Champagne goes under the hammer for 875,000, February 01, 2005 at the National Yearling sales in Karaka, Auckland, New Zealand. Giant's Causeway is the current top ranked sire by progeny earnings in North America. (Photo by Michael Bradley/Getty Images)

It's a bit of a slow week in the racing world following the whirlwind of stakes races around the country last weekend.  After the win by Afleet Express in the Travers I began to go through the current sire lists as I was curious as to how the progeny of Afleet Alex had been performing as we move into the latter half of 2010. As I continued to dig I became more curious as to how various sires have performed not just in regards to total earnings, but as to the overall value they provide.

The Thoroughbred Times has an excellent sire list page (which can be found here) where I went and sorted the top 100 General and Freshmen sires.  (An Excel file of the complete list can be found here: Sire Stats 9.1.10).  The General and Freshmen sire lists were initially sorted and ranked by total earnings.  Of course, just looking at total earnings can be a bit deceptive since one or two big wins during the year can tip the scales in a sire's direction.  So I re-sorted the data and added four different statistics: Winning Percentage, Earnings per Start, Earnings per Win, and a Earnings to Stud Fee Ratio.

The Earnings to Stud Fee ratio was calculated by first multiplying the stud fee (if available) by the total starters (for the General list) or total 2 year olds (for the Freshmen list) to come up with a Total Fee.  I divided Progeny Earnings by the Total Fee in order to come up with the final ratio.  An example of this ratio using Afleet Alex:

Afleet Alex has a $15,000 stud fee and 112 starters in 2010, for a total stud fee for all starters of $1.68 million.  Alex's progeny, lead by Travers winner Afleet Express, have won $3,877,708 for a Earnings to Stud Fee Ratio of 2.31.  While the ratio will skew toward low and high stud fee horses on the extreme ends I think it's a quick, non-scientific way to identify sires that have offered a lot of value based on their stud fee*.

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4 comments |

Arguably one of the top juvenile colts in the country, Kantharos, suffered an injury during training and was promptly retired.

Kantharos won the Saratoga Special on August 18th by 7 1/4 lengths.

2 days ago Emd3_tiny MattGSeattle 2 comments

My favourite memories of the big chestnut are of him breaking into a jog coming out of the post parade, those moments when he literally floated effortlessly over the track. Poetry in motion, as they say.

The Racing Post's stateside correspondent Dan Farley lists his five favorite horses of all-time. Number 1 is no surprise.

2 days ago Emd3_tiny MattGSeattle 0 comments

How hardcore of a gambler are you?

Horseplayers come in all shapes and sizes.  Some of us play every day, some every weekend, others every once and a while.  There are times when it can be difficult to identify where you fit in relations to the most die-hard players in the game.  Thankfully, I've come up with a scientifically accurate quiz to help you determine whether you're a novice or a hardcore gambler.  The margin of error for this quiz is 0%.  The quiz determines all.

The Quiz

Question #1: Which statement best describes how you would celebrate Thanksgiving Day:

A) You spend the entire day with your family enjoying turkey, stuffing, cranberry, and pumpkin pie, with an occasional eye on whatever NFL game is on. No betting because, hey, it's Thanksgiving!

B) You are parked in front of the TV switching between football and TVG/HRTV, tossing an occasional spot play bet down before sitting down at the dinner table.

C) Football? Aqueduct in the morning.  Churchill Downs in the afternoon.  Hollywood in the evening.  You eat your turkey in your recliner with your laptop within easy reach.

D) You spend Thanksgiving in Vegas, at the track or at the OTB.


Question #2: Which statement best describes how you prepare for the Kentucky Derby?

A) You pick up a Form a couple of days before the race and spend the next two days handicapping your picks.

B) You start to follow the prep season during the last month when horses are running in the Santa Anita Derby, the Wood, Arkansas Derby, and the Blue Grass. 

C) Derby preparation begins in January with the first three year old stakes races of the year.  You have a file on your computer that tracks all of the winners from the preps, you have multiple Road to the Roses stables, and by Derby week you can name the jockey, trainer, running style, and recent races for every horse in the field.

D) You follow every maiden race during the summer/fall trying to pick out a two-year old that you can place a huge future wager down on when you are in Vegas....on Thanksgiving.


Question #3: You're at the track having a very successful day at the races and as you are waiting in line to make a bet on you big long shot play of the day, a 30/1 first time starter that you are certain is going to blow the field away.  While waiting in line an older man, obviously going through a long losing streak that day, asks you for advice on who to bet in the next race.  Which statement describes your most likely course of action:

A) You tell him about you live long shot in the next race because everyone deserves to cash a ticket.

B) You tell him to bet the favorite

C) You quickly pick a random horse out of the Form and tell him to bet it so you can get back to figuring out how you want to play the trifecta.

D) You tell him you like a different longest shot in the race because you don't want him to bet your horse and drive down the odds.


Question #4: Which statement best describes how you spend your non-betting dollars when you are at the track:

A) You buy hot dogs and soda, perhaps an ice cream cone and a souvenir hat, plus something for the kids if they are tagging along that day.

B) You'll buy a few beers and a hot dog if you get incredibly hungry, nothing else.

C) You sneak in food and pop so you don't have to spend any money on non-gambling items.

D) Your bankroll is like precious diamonds.  When you are at the track you don't eat and you don't drink.  Food is for the weak.

Continue reading this post »

7 comments |

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Del Mar's free Online Contest starts Wednesday.  You get a mythical $100 to play each day of the meet on one race.  You can use the money to make any kind of win, place and/or show bet on any number of horses in the race.

Which brings up a question I would like to discuss.  What is the best strategy for approaching a tourney such as this one?  I know how I like to approach handicapping contests that use the win/place format of the National Handicapping Contest, but tournaments that use live-money formats still find me shaky in my approach.

You are only allowed one entry in the DMTC contest, but I am going to track a few different options.  I sometimes employ what I call the 2-6-12 wager, which is based on the fact that the place and show pools are usually a third, and a sixth of the win pool.  Hence, the ratios.  So, on one mythical entry I am going to bet $10 to win, $30 to place, and $60 to show on one horse.  On another, I am going to bet $25 to win, and $75 to show.  On a third mythical entry, I plan to employ another tactic - two-horse win betting, also called dutching - in which you place wagers of $40 and $60 on two different horses with the lower wager going on the longer-odds horse of the two.  And then finally, I am going to play one mythical entry in which the whole $100 will go on one 8-1 or longer horse to show.  I will be intrigued to see which entry winds up ahead after the 37 races of the contest.

Any thoughts on strategy, because this is something I would like to hash out enough to come to a position where I would be comfortable playing in actual live-money tournaments (which is further complicated by the fact that most of them also allow exotic wagers!)?  This is necessary, because it seems the live-money format is gaining in popularity.  I much prefer the NHC format.
An interesting quick clip illustrating Zenyatta's height as compared to other notable thoroughbreds.
Good news...at the Breeder's Cup site, under Breeder's Cup Challenge, there is a "Breeder's Cup Betting Challenge" listed.  Hopefully, that means a contest coinciding with the win-and-you're in races is in the offing.

Also, my wife is in 310th place in the Survival at the Shore contest, and earned back a life-preserver by staying alive this long.

Also, are any of you playing in the Colonial Downs online contest?  It is free, and it has a very interesting format.  Contestants make four wagers each day, usually on races 4 through 7.  The first wager is a WPS, the second a 3-horse exacta box, the third a 4-horse tri, and the fourth a 5-horse super.  Highest bankroll wins, so even though the contest is a couple of weeks old, one big exotic score can skyrocket you to the top.  What makes it interesting is that everyone is playing the same kind of wager in each race.  Naturally, my wife is crushing me so far in that contest as well!  I trained her well...
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Emd3_small MattGSeattle