Saturday Stakes Open Thread
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 10:57 AM EST
in Stakes Day Open Thread
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PrintThis will be the catch-all thread for today's racing action. I'll be mainly focused on the events in Florida and Louisiana today, but feel free to comment about any racing taking place today. There's no word yet on whether Santa Anita was able to drain the tub. (UPDATED: SA has announced that they will race today.)
I'll try to post any significant changes/scratches in the comments, or you use can use one of the links in the left sidebar to get the info directly from the track.
I've decided to take the plunge on a Pick 4 ticket at the Fair Grounds today, specifically the sequence featuring races 7 -10. My ticket is very skinny as I'm going with a fairly aggressive single in the 2nd leg. Here's the basic layout of the ticket:
1 / 3 / 7 with 4 with 10 / 3 with 1 / 11 / 2
Base bet: $1
Total cost: $18
A couple of thoughts on my selections:
- The first leg appears pretty straightforward, with General Quarters, Friesen Fire and Good and Lucky standing out from the rest of the field. I hate to go three deep just to get a low priced horse (which is what is going to probably happen here) but I'm not comfortable leaving any of those three off my ticket.
- The 2nd leg will probably make me or break me in this sequence as I've singled 4-Bella Medaglia, a 6/1 shot on the morning line. The outside filly, 10-Quiet Temper, is going to take a ton of cash after beating my choice last time out. Two factors, however, led me to believe that Bella Medaglia can turn the tables today. First, there is a little more pace in the field than in that last race when Quiet Temper ran off and hid from the field. She'll have to work a little harder to go gate to wire. Second, there is some speed to her inside and it's possible that Quiet Temper could get hung wide going into that first turn.
When I combined the probability of additional pace along with the potential trip, I felt that Bella Medaglia has a nice chance at an upset. - If I'm lucky enough to get past the 2nd leg I then have to deal with a 5 1/2 furlong turf sprint with a monster field of twelve. Again I decided to keep things skinny and only went with two selections in here: 3-Goldilox and 10-Coy Cat.
Coy Cat is a logical standout in this spot as she's 3-for-3 over the Fair Grounds turf course and 6-3-0-0 overall in turf sprints. In other words, she loves to win turf sprints over this course. I love the horse for course angle when I'm dealing with specialty events like 5 1/2 furlong sprints.
Goldilox is the price play in this spot, with her 20/1 odds on the morning line. Like Coy Cat, Goldilox has done well in turf sprints at the Fair Grounds (3-1-1-0) and she's cutting back in distance after flopping in a 1 1/16 mile turf event on January 2nd. I'm throwing that race out as I think it was purely a race to get some back into this filly before this stakes event. - The final leg of the sequence is the feature race on the card, the G3-Lecomte. I already previewed that race yesterday so I'll just reiterate what I said then: I'm taking 1-Maximus Ruler, 2-Turf Melody, and 11-Ron the Greek to finish off the sequence.
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Changes at FG...just as I hit "publish"
And, of course, one of the changes involves my Pick 4. Here’s are the initial scratches from the track:
Race 3: SCR 4
Race 4: SCR 7
Race 6: SCR 8
Race 7: SCR 6
Race 8: SCR 1, 2
Race 9: SCR 3, 6
Race 10: SCR 6
Race 12: SCR 6
Race 13: SCR 13, 14
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
So 3-Goldilox is out of the 9th
That was my closer/price play in that spot. Disappointed that she’s not gong to run.
I’m leaning towards substituting Goldilox with the 4-Dashel (12/1 ML). Similar type of angle as I was playing on the 3: decent at the trip and can close but is taking a big step up in class. I’d like a little better than 12/1 for that type of play, though.
In addition to the 4 I’m going to add the 8-Lady Chance (9/2 ML)….so now I’m three deep in the 3rd leg.
1/3/7 w 4 w 4/8/10 w 1/2/11 for $27.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 11:08 AM EST up reply actions
Gulfstream changes now up
No changes in the Holy Bull at this time.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
Bella Medaglia
Her daddy was one of my favorites.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
He's produced some decent horses lately..
hasn’t he?
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 2:18 PM EST up reply actions
God bless the DVR...
I leave the house for an hour and a half and I can catch up on all the races in about 10 minutes. What would I do without technology?
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
First turf race of the day at FG
Tough OC/N2X race. 2 taking all the money at 9/5. I like the firs time turfer, the 3, a little bit. Wild Wonder does okay with his offspring on the lawn some at decent prices. 10/1 might warrant a nibble.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
Check that
She’s 17/1….I like her even more…maybe underneath in an EX.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 2:39 PM EST up reply actions
Eh, maybe not.
she looked asleep in that on-track shot.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 2:42 PM EST up reply actions
Very slow fractions...
:52 for the 1/2, 1:17 for 6.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 2:47 PM EST up reply actions
Marcus Hersh noticing the same thing at FG
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 3:00 PM EST up reply actions
Here's a question...
The 1 in the 6th at FG is making his first career start on the turf after 14 tries over dirt/synthetic surfaces. He’s sired by Dynaformer…how do you wait 15 races to put a son of Dynaformer on the lawn? And it’s not like this horse has dominated on the dirt. Strange.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
5 looks nice in this spot..
draws outside, comes from just off the pace, good closing kick…might get the perfect setup today.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 3:28 PM EST up reply actions
Nobody wants the rail on the grass
must be really slow.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 3:45 PM EST up reply actions
6 goes to the rail...should be interesting
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 3:45 PM EST up reply actions
Horrible ride by the jock on the 6
He went to the rail and immediately started going backwards. There was a reason that none of the other jocks were having anything to do with the rail, it’s dead. Oddly enough that rider is 0-6 on the turf.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
Turf course so far:
rail is death, times are slow, stalkers are killing
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 3:51 PM EST up reply actions
The 4 in race 6 hit the rail, didn’t he?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I don't think so..
I was just watching the head-on replay and he didn’t seem to. It looked like he just backed up badly once they hit the far turn. I could be wrong.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 4:04 PM EST up reply actions
Oh wait..the 4
Don’t know….I was thinking of the 6
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 4:06 PM EST up reply actions
1st leg of P4 is a two horse affair on the tote board
General Quarters: 7/5
Friesen Fire: 6/5
Good and Luck is a decent 9/2.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
Everyone jumping on Good and Lucky
General Quarters now best of the 3 at 5-2.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
just saw that...
Was wondering if that 9/2 would hold.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 4:14 PM EST up reply actions
Let Friesen Fire go 1:12 for 6...
yeah, that’ll do it.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 4:19 PM EST up reply actions
Aqueduct
Kim Karakorum is getting all kinds of love in that 9th race.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Yeah, big price cut.
20/1 on the ML…somebody likes her.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 4:10 PM EST up reply actions
I have 5/4/7 in the 9th at Aqueduct
Let’s run ’em.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Get it done.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 4:21 PM EST up reply actions
Wow. What a run.
Should be a nice payoff.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
$190k pick six payout. Nice hit on the 10 there.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
What got into the 10?
Ran away from them. And a P6 carryover? I think they said $600K in today’s pool.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 4:25 PM EST up reply actions
TVG is saying two people hit the 10
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
oh, okay..
Yep, just saw the tote. 190K? That will do the job.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 4:26 PM EST up reply actions
Karakorum ran second to the 10 there. Someone knew what was up on that horse.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Absolutely...
That tote action was telling. I didn’t catch the early flash, did she take a big chunk early?
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 4:29 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t know either. I just caught it as I was skimming the opens.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
where do you follow all of this?
is there one website that has all the lines for all the different tracks?
www.nwfan.com
Couple of different places...
HRTV is on DishNetwork…they have Fair Grounds and Gulfstream, which TVG doesn’t carry. Then there are the ADWs like TwinSpires.com, Youbet.com…they all have live streaming of the tracks they carry (assuming they aren’t in some kind of dispute with each other).
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 4:18 PM EST up reply actions
I think on TwinSpires
you have to have an account. I’m not sure if you have to have money in there, but that’s how I’m watching.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
You are right...
need an account but don’t have to bet to watch their TwinSpiresTV…I do the same thing. I like being able to see the track feed.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 4:22 PM EST up reply actions
The odds on Bella Medalia are going in the wrong direction
Started at 6/1 and now 3/1. Not the value I was looking for.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
4/1 now on Bella Medaglia...
10 getting crushed at 3/5. I love trying to beat an odds-on favorite in the Pick 4 (sarcasm).
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 4:43 PM EST up reply actions
So...apparently the 4 doesn't want to show any speed today.
Great.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 4:47 PM EST up reply actions
Oh....come on!
Wow…give me an inquiry…Please!!!
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 4:48 PM EST up reply actions
Inquiry between the 4 and 8
but not with the 3. Oh well. Had the right idea but beaten by a 23/1 filly.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 4:51 PM EST up reply actions
Seven scratches in the 3rd at Santa Anita...
I’m guessing a lot of trainers want to see what’s up with this surface before risking their horses. Smart move on their part.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
I hate scratches...
they can just kill a night of handicapping.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 4:39 PM EST up reply actions
I need more TVs/computers
Got split screen on the TV of HRTV and the Coug/UCLA game, and TwinSpiries on the laptop with the Fair Grounds live feed.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
do you know if TVG is available on comcast in seattle?
i’m bouncing around between the cougcenter game thread, coug game on tv, checking in on this from thread from time to time, playing poker online. busy day :)
www.nwfan.com
It is available but on the Sports Pack..
I used to have it when I was with them.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 4:55 PM EST up reply actions
Ten minutes to the Holy Bull
Jackson Bend at 5/2. Winslow Homer and Homeboykris at 7/2.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
Jackson Bend 9/5 at Post Time
Gonna go with Homeboykris here…and an EX over Winslow Homer
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 5:10 PM EST up reply actions
Gutty race by Winslow Homer...
and the jock had a ton of horse on the turn, he was just cruising. Homeboykris might have had a chance if he hadn’t made that big move into the pace in the 2nd quarter.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 5:13 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed.
I expected better. When he moved him all the way up and it’s :45 for the 1/2…ugh, not good.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 5:17 PM EST up reply actions
Hit
On the $5 exacta straight in #10 at Tampa Bay.
:)
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Nice work...
That’s a nice bit of change for a hard day’s work.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 5:04 PM EST up reply actions
Tampa is a great track...
big fields, decent turf events…solid track.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 5:04 PM EST up reply actions
What do you think about the 11 in the 11th at Tampa?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Wow...that's some serious beaten lengths.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 5:16 PM EST up reply actions
But hey, they are moving her up from Md $10K!
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 5:18 PM EST up reply actions
I’m trying to find a runner on the back end of a tri there.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
that's a tough field
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 5:20 PM EST up reply actions
Who you got on top?
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 5:21 PM EST up reply actions
Maximus Ruler taking the action for the Lecomte at 2/1
Turf Melody has drifted up to 11/1. Big price on a pretty good colt.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
Leaning towards a 1/2-11 and 2-11/1 EX play here.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 5:39 PM EST up reply actions
The 5th at Santa Anita
I love the 4. I’ve put him with the 7.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Here he comes
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 5:37 PM EST up reply actions
Great race.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 5:37 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks!
4 across the board and 4 with 7.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Loading at the FG
Maximus Ruler will go off as the Fav.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
6th at Santa Anita
5 scratches, including my two picks, and 4 horses running.
Boo.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Ended up with an Exacta
1 over 2/11….and 2/11 over 1
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
Finally get to cash a ticket today...
I feel like I’m running around rubbing two sticks together while everyone else is using a Zippo.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 5:54 PM EST up reply actions
Two in a row for the And Down The Stretch They Come crew :)
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Hey, that's a "streak".
I shoulda bet that horse to win.
There’s my first “shoulda” of the day, the Horseplayer’s favorite word.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 5:59 PM EST up reply actions
I loved that horse the other night...
Tom Amoss knows how to win at FG.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 5:53 PM EST up reply actions
Santa Anita Race #7
Matt, thoughts on the 3?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I stayed away from Santa Anita today...
wasn’t sure what to make of the track with all the weather.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 6:05 PM EST up reply actions
Plus...I hate when races come off the turf.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 6:05 PM EST up reply actions
Euroears is the standout in the 11th at FG
but I’m going to box him with Sok Sok in an $5 EX and see what we can get.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
:21 and 1...yeah, they are moving.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 6:21 PM EST up reply actions
I'll be interested to see the Beyer from this race
Cash Refund just ran Euroears into the ground…Euroears is a really nice colt and he got destroyed.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 6:22 PM EST up reply actions
The last two at FG are for Louisiana breds
I don’t touch those.
I gotta go buy a birthday present and do things like eat, shower, and generally try and look like I haven’t been betting the horses all morning/afternoon. Keep cashing tickets.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
On 2nd thought...
I need to see what happens in the Palos Verdes and what this Pick Six pays.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 6:33 PM EST up reply actions
Yep. It's highly overrated.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 6:42 PM EST up reply actions
Santa Anita #7
I like the 3 here. Need to wrap him in some exotics.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I like the 3 and the 11, so I’m going 3 with 7/11 and 11 with 3/7
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
That will pay nice if you hit it.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 6:34 PM EST up reply actions
Thought that 3 was going to get there
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 6:40 PM EST up reply actions
First four legs of the SA Pick 6
26.20
28.60
3.60
23.40
Highly doubtful that this thing pays out today but if it does it’s got to only be a ticket or two.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
How often does Garrett Gomez ride the longest shot on the board?
Can’t be too much but he is in the 8th.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
I haven't even looked at this race...
but Gomez at 17/1 feels like something I need to be a part of.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 7:07 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe that's why
11/1 on the winner with Dancing in Silks losing….that should kill off this Pick 6.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 7:11 PM EST up reply actions
9/1 final odds on winner...another $20 horse.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 7:12 PM EST up reply actions
A couple of those at Santa Anita today.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Apparebtly, the Pick 6 is alive to the 5, 8, and 11
for $87,781.80. Everything else is a carryover.
Gotta say, 87K seems a little light for this P6. Didn’t see what the final pool was.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
The 2 just destroyed the field in the finale at FG.
Dropping from a MdSpWt last time out to a 15K MdClm…must have won by 10+
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
Race #9 Santa Anita
I like the 11 on the back half with both 1 and 8. I took the 11 WPS too.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Rosario has been hot today.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 7:24 PM EST up reply actions
Sam Houston
is starting. blech. nothing like 4 horse fields and $29 exacta pools.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I love it when a $5 bet jumps the odds.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 7:29 PM EST up reply actions
You know you’re either desperate or an addict when SH is the last track running and you’re trying to find an exacta
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I have to say...
I end up playing these tracks more than I’ll admit.
“Just one more bet. Just one more!”
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 7:33 PM EST up reply actions
Sam Houston does have a 12% take on their Pick 3s
so they got that going for them….
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 7:31 PM EST up reply actions
Finale at SA...25K MdClm, of course.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
Man, that 11 hung in the lane for a while
but I think he got up.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
Rosario read the track most of the day.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
He was all over it.
Nice call…you were dialed in at SA, even your misses were right there in the end.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2010 7:42 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks!
Thanks for the tips and the conversation! Fantastic job!
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Okay...
now I got to shower, eat, leave my house…
Derek, thanks for the comments, tweets, and great handicapping.
Same to everyone else, even if you were just reading along, it’s much appreciated and we’ll keep doing this every weekend.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
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