Saturday Open Thread: NHC, Sunshine Millions, G3-Connally Turf
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 10:15 AM EST
in Handicapping Tournaments
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PrintUPDATE #1: Aqueduct cancels the rest of their card after only three races due to cold weather. AQU 8 was supposed to be the 3rd mandatory race today at the NHC. Don't know if they will find a replacement race or just add an optional play.
UPDATE #2: Official word is one more optional play in place of AQU 8.
UPDATE #3: First leaderboard update and the the gap has closed on the top spot from day 1.
UPDATE #4: Final leaderboard at the NHC is in and day one leader, Brian Troop, holds on to win. He now holds the title of "DRF/NTRA Handicapper of the Year". He also just won $500,000. The title is nice...the cash kicks ass.
There are a bunch of different events taking place in the world of horse racing this Saturday, including a rare graded stake race from Texas. The Grade 3 - John Connally Turf at Sam Houston is our lone graded stake of the day, and it looks like it could be a pretty good betting race. A field of twelve will go 1 1/8 miles on the grass led by the 10-Orientate Express, the 4/1 morning line favorite.
An interesting price play in this spot could be the 11-Pool Play, a Woodbine shipper making just his third start on turf. Pool Play has been running primarily on the synthetics up in Canada but he appears to fit in with this group and has been displaying some nice form in his last few efforts. Pool Play is 8/1 on the ML.
I'm going to spend the day primarily following the tracks and races associated with day two of the NHC where there will need to be a lot of big prices In order for the rest of the field to catch up with the record setting day 1 leader. In an interview with the DRF yesterday, day 1 leader, Brian Troop, said his strategy for today is to keep firing away at big prices, and with an almost $80 lead he should be fine as long as he gets just one or two to come in. It'll be interesting to see if anyone can make a serious dent in his lead.
Finally, today is Sunshine Millions day at Gulfstream and Santa Anita, with both the Filly and Mare Sprint and the Classic part of the NHC's mandatory plays. Six races restricted to California and Florida breds will take place at the two tracks: the F&M Sprint, F&M Turf Sprint, and Classic at Santa Anita; and the Turf, Sprint, and Distaff at Gulfstream.
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Fair Grounds is off the turf today.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
The first at AQU is an ugly little N2L affair
The 6 (3/5 odds) is the standout on speed figures but nobody in here seems to want to win very often. Not a lot to like.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
If the blinkers are effective...
the 4 could be a factor at 6/1. She needs to show more speed to have a chance.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 12:25 PM EST up reply actions
The 7 in the 1st at Gulfstream
interesting play at 10/1 on the board. Her last effort was poor on the grass, but her two previous dirt sprints at Calder were very strong, although she came up short both times. The race two back saw the winner, 3rd, and 4th place horses all come back to win next time out.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
Going to play the 7...
see if I can get a price to start the day.
Late money just pounded my pick from 10/1 to 7/1….give me a break.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 1:17 PM EST up reply actions
ah, flattened out in the lane...
got the set up but couldn’t score.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 1:19 PM EST up reply actions
Everyone is pounding the 2 in the 2nd at GP
I don’t see it…I think the 4 looks much better on paper.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
4 was the clear speed of the speed..
3/2 odds, though…I liked him better when he was at 4/1
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 1:44 PM EST up reply actions
Aqueduct has cancelled the rest of their card today...
Which means the NHC will have to substitute a mandatory race…or give another optional. We’ll see.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
Could be a nice price in the 3rd at GP
Maidens on the lawn going a mile…lots of first time starters.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
And there's your bomb...
80/1 on the winner in the 3rd at GP…80/1. There’s the first cap horse of the day.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 2:09 PM EST up reply actions
10/1 on the winner at Fair Grounds...
so back to back races with some prices. Everyone at the NHC should love that.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
1st mandatory race - 4th at GP on the lawn.
I pity the players at the NHC…this looks like a pretty tough race, at least to me. The fav looks vulnerable but the rest of the field is iffy.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
2 might be the play at 5/1
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 2:26 PM EST up reply actions
Rail at 108 feet...
can’t let the speed get an early lead in those conditions. Do jockeys ever watch these races?
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 2:35 PM EST up reply actions
11/1 on the winner...big price in the 1st mandatory play.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 2:36 PM EST up reply actions
Gonna take a stab at the 4 in the 5th at GP
Stepping up in class but likes the trip. Should get something to run at.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
Photo between 8 and 1...
1 was 35/1…would be another cap horse if he got up.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 2:58 PM EST up reply actions
8 gets the photo...
10.60 and 5.60 on the winner…30.80 on the place horse.
There have been plenty of prices today; can’t wait till the first updated leaderboard.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 3:04 PM EST up reply actions
There is finally and updated leaderboard...
Troop still leads but it’s down to $32…it’s going to pretty wide open all the way to the end.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
Just got in – what am I betting and watching?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
It's Gulfstream and SA for me today...
oaklawn, AQU and laurel all cancelled.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 4:01 PM EST up reply actions
Said it was something like 15 degrees at the Big A.
That’s not good for anybody.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 4:05 PM EST up reply actions
I love the Roman's horse here in the 7th at GP
- at 6/1
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
whoops.
that should be 4 at 6/1. gotta get used to these tags
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 4:02 PM EST up reply actions
2nd at GG scores a nice price
19.40 and 7.20
You gotta wonder, if you’re the guy that was the day 1 leader at what point are you just trying to get anything to come in in order to add to the score? He said he wanted to be aggressive today but he needs winners to close this thing out.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
How has the rail been at either place?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Some really fast times at SA, though.
Seems to be really quick today.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 4:15 PM EST up reply actions
I haven't noticed anything too out of the ordinary...
the turf at GP has been all speed, however.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
Big price at FG...4 at 25/1...3/5 shot goes down.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
check that...I was off on the odds.
just a 2/1 shot
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 4:20 PM EST up reply actions
The Sunshine Millions Sprint have very little value in it
I like the 4 but 2/1, eh.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
Wait, the 4 is ridden by Coa...
I’m off Coa…he’s killed me lately. Guy doesn’t have a right arm.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 4:30 PM EST up reply actions
I can’t find anything I like anywhere.
And what channel is this on?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
HRTV
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 4:33 PM EST up reply actions
Not much to like in here
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 4:33 PM EST up reply actions
head bob...
those two were far and away the best in this field. The EX will probably pay $4.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
4.70...missed it by 0.70
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 4:44 PM EST up reply actions
The 11 in the 5th at SA looks worth a shot
obscure jockey and trainer combo…niiiiice.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
come on!
the 7 just destroyed the 11 on the turn…took him about 7 wide.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 4:47 PM EST up reply actions
Formulator, which I usually love, is just awful today
Way too slow changing cards.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
Gulfstream Race 9
What’s wrong with the 5? I like it.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
At 8/1...yeah, don't see why she's not getting any play
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 4:56 PM EST up reply actions
Not a ton of speed in here...
if she can avoid dueling with the 7 she’s got a good shot to take it w2w.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 4:57 PM EST up reply actions
The 6 likes GP...
maybe an EX with her and the 5…that would pay nicely if it hits.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 5:08 PM EST up reply actions
FG 8 goes off, 4th mandatory of the day
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
Chalk...2/1
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 5:05 PM EST up reply actions
The lead at the NHC is down to $20.
Could come down to the final races.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
Like the 7 at SA in the FM Sprint
8/1
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
21 and 2...ugh.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 5:23 PM EST up reply actions
well that race fell apart.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 5:24 PM EST up reply actions
This is a brutal day. Nothing interesting. I’m off to looking at TBD.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
These Sunshine Millions races have been pretty bland
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 5:28 PM EST up reply actions
I hit that 2 in race 11 at TBD for $16.40
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Gotta love Tampa.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 5:46 PM EST up reply actions
There is no speed in the 9th at GP
the 11 is at a weak 5/2 but he appears the likely winner, especially the way the turf course is playing.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
That should be 10th at GP
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 5:33 PM EST up reply actions
Wolfson is 5 for 11 first off the claim
He doesn’t claim often but wins when he does.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 5:47 PM EST up reply actions
Slow. it. down.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 5:48 PM EST up reply actions
How do you let julien get away with this lead?
That was free money in my pocket.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 5:49 PM EST up reply actions
$8 winner 10x...that's helps make up for some losers.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 5:55 PM EST up reply actions
Excellent call and that may have been the worst run race for 11 jockeys that I’ve ever seen.
Did Jet Propulsion ever go to the whip?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I don't think so.
The jocks did the same thing earlier today at GP, nobody went with the speed. With the rail at 108 and the firm course the speed is just killing. Can’t belive the closer was the fav at 9/5.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 5:58 PM EST up reply actions
Big price in the 5th at GG
37.60 and 15.00 on the winner, the 12.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
The last four races on the GP card are simulcasts from Chile.
I can honestly say I haven’t bet a race from Chile. So far.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
If you have numbers, let me know!
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I like Gary Stevens but he doesn't think surface matters for the 7 at SA
He’s 0-for-4 on synthetics…that has to matter. And it matter in terms of value; I won’t take a horse at 4/5 that is 0-for-4 lifetime on the surface.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
Bold Chieftain at 6/1 looks like the value play for me.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 6:12 PM EST up reply actions
8th at Santa Anita
Who is the speed here? I like the 1 and the and the and 9
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
1 looks good...I love the 9.
6/1…like the plastic stuff…and the distance…should get a great trip.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 6:15 PM EST up reply actions
Went with both of them and decided to throw the exacta down. Should be a huge number given that 4/5 on the favorite.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Same thought to me...get that 4/5 down and it will pay.
Went with win on 9 and EXs with 1,4,9
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 6:23 PM EST up reply actions
That's what i'm talking about.
Man, I didn’t think Baze would get through….please no inquiry.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 6:31 PM EST up reply actions
He was hung up twice trying to push through. And Jeranimo couldn’t find a slot to get there. Plenty of horse left though.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Wow, wow. the 1 lost by less than a nose.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
$37 for a $1 on the will pays.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 6:33 PM EST up reply actions
9,4,5,1
We were all over this race in every way. Ha.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
That super paid huge.
7 was such an overlay…horrible at 4/5, just horrible.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 6:37 PM EST up reply actions
excuse me, underlay
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 6:37 PM EST up reply actions
Dude. When we agree….
good things happen!
The 9 with a helluva close!
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Great ride by Baze...
went outside when he got boxed in and forced his way through…
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 6:32 PM EST up reply actions
We should be in that championship today :)
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
No doubt.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 6:34 PM EST up reply actions
Leaderboard unchanged at the NHC
Troop still leads by $23.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
How big of a lead did Troop have after day 1?
He’s only hit $16 worth of winners today and still leads by $20+.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 6:52 PM EST up reply actions
65/1 on the 3 in the 10th at SA
Of course, he’s coming in off a 3 year layoff. Don’t know if I’ve ever played that angle.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
His speed figures don't dazzle,
but I like the 7 a little bit at 11/1 in this spot.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 6:50 PM EST up reply actions
The 5 at 25/1? Hmmm.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 6:55 PM EST up reply actions
I was looking at that 6...
like the move back to sprinting.
This race could produce another price.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 6:57 PM EST up reply actions
went 5,6,7 exacta...should pay nice if it comes in.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 6:58 PM EST up reply actions
Love when 3/5 shots win for fun...just love it.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 7:15 PM EST up reply actions
Only three races left at the NHC. (2 at SA, 1 at GG)
Everybody will be going after bombs to close it out….the leader will be praying for chalk
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
Word from the NTRA is that the top 3 players all have optionals left.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 7:09 PM EST up reply actions
Gonna go with a late DD at SA
1,6 with 6.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
Example #1 million why I should just stop playing the late daily double.
8/1 winner.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 7:32 PM EST up reply actions
Penn Nat.
$62.80 to win for the 3rd race.
wow.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
you all over that?
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 7:36 PM EST up reply actions
Oh yeahhhhhhh, I had that all figured out.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Sam Houston starts soon
Can’t believe they actually have a graded stake tonight.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 7:46 PM EST up reply actions
Last race of the tournament, the 11th at SA.
Latest word is that the 2nd place guy had all three bullets left for the last three races. Of course, the race at GG saw an 8/5 winner so I’m guessing he needs something like 10/1 or higher in this last race at SA in order to win, otherwise Troop takes it wire to wire.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
Looks like 2/1 on the winner...
I’ll be shocked if Troop didn’t hold on for the win after posting a huge lead in day 1.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 8:02 PM EST up reply actions
Actually...as 23.20 place horse...
there could be a change at the top.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 8:07 PM EST up reply actions
Memo to NTRA:
I need to shower, eat, and otherwise make myself look presentable this evening. Please post final leadeboard. Thank you.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
Okay, NHC is "official"
Troop holds on to win and takes home $500,000. How quickly will that get put back into the windows?
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
SH
You looking at this one at all?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Thinking about it. Just clicked back over to TVG.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 11:20 PM EST up reply actions
I know nothing about this track.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Neither do I...but I like the action
or, at least I did until the horse I liked went from 8/1 ML to 5/2.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 11:29 PM EST up reply actions
The two coupled entries, 1/1a and 2/2b are 10/1
That’s four price horses for the price of two!
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 11:35 PM EST up reply actions
I hate 3/1 on the 11...
but I can pass up an opportunity to play a race at Sam Houston. Good way to cap the evening.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 11:45 PM EST up reply actions
I mean "can't pass up" a bet at SH.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 11:45 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe the Pitts horse, the 12 at 5/1
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 11:49 PM EST up reply actions
Is the cameraman at SH drunk?
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 11:50 PM EST up reply actions
And with that my day of handicapping comes to an end.
I’m guessing that will be my last bet at Sam Houston for the year…but you never know, it does run an evening card.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 11:53 PM EST up reply actions
Dammit! I went 10/12 exacta!
Stupid 7!
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
It serves us right for playing SH
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jan 30, 2010 11:56 PM EST up reply actions
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