2010 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Preview
by Matt Gardner on Oct 3, 2010 2:00 AM EDT
in Handicapping
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PrintGroup 1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe
Longchamp Racecourse
1 1/2 miles (about)
Purse: $5,500,000
Post-time: 4:05pm Paris (10:05am Eastern / 7:05am
Pacific)
TV: HRTV
|
# |
Horse |
Jockey |
Trainer |
Odds* |
|
1 |
Youmzain (IRE) |
Hughes, R. |
Channon, M. |
12/1 |
|
2 |
Marinous (FR) |
Bonilla, D. |
Head, F. |
30/1 |
|
3 |
Fame and Glory (GB) |
Murtagh, J. |
O'Brien, A. |
9/2 |
|
4 |
Pouvoir Absolu (GB) |
Fargeat, S. |
Lellouche, E. |
50/1 |
|
5 |
Weiner Walzer (GER) |
Queally, T. |
Hirschberger, J. |
50/1 |
|
6 |
Calvary Man (GB) |
Dettori, F. |
Bin Suroor, S. |
15/1 |
|
7 |
Nakayama Festa (JPN) |
Ebina, M. |
Ninomiya, Y. |
20/1 |
|
8 |
Timos (GER) |
Fallon, K. |
Doumen, T. |
30/1 |
|
9 |
Duncan (GB) |
Buick, W. |
Gosden, J. |
30/1 |
|
10 |
Liang Kay (GER) |
Pasquier, S. |
Ostmann, U. |
50/1 |
|
11 |
Tullamore |
Blondel, F. |
Koplik, Z. |
50/1 |
|
12 |
Plumania (GB) |
Peslier, O. |
Fabre, A. |
20/1 |
|
13 |
Workforce (GB) |
Moore, R. |
Stoute, M. |
6/1 |
|
14 |
Behkabad (FR) |
Lemaire, CP |
Rouget, J-C |
4/1 |
|
15 |
Cape Blanco (IRE) |
Soumillion, C. |
O'Brien, A. |
12/1 |
|
16 |
Planteur (IRE) |
Crastus, A. |
Lellouche, E. |
8/1 |
|
17 |
Lope De Vega (IRE) |
Guyon, M. |
Fabre, A. |
30/1 |
|
18 |
Midas Touch (GB) |
Heffernan, J. |
O'Brien, A. |
30/1 |
|
19 |
Victoire Pisa (JPN) |
Take, Y. |
Sumii, K. |
20/1 |
|
20 |
Sarafina (FR) |
Moose, G. |
DeRoyer-Dupre, A. |
8/1 |
*Odds are morning line for the North American betting pools.
If you'd like to view free past performances for this race, the DRF has pdf you can download at the following link (DRF.com: Arc PPs)
A field of twenty will contest one of the world's great horse races at Longchamp this morning, the Group 1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.
The ground at Lonchamp has been rated as "soft" for the entire week, while some of the jockeys at the Paris racecourse have stated that the course is "very soft" as of Saturday afternoon French racing officials believe the rain is behind them and that the sun may break prior to the Arc, the course is unlikely to significantly dry out prior to the start of the Arc. With that in mind, it probably makes sense to look for a horse that can handle the soft going and that is fit enough to handle this testing race.
Let's take a look at some of the more interesting runners in this year's field.
-One of the lightest raced horses in this field is Sir Michael Stout's Epsom Derby winner, Workforce. He was so good in the Derby and so bad in the King George & Queen Elizabeth Stakes that you really don't know what to make of him in this spot. The ground is going to be testing and he hasn't had a race since July 24th. Seems like a big ask of this colt but it's not like he's facing one of the toughest Arc fields.
-The probable favorite is the local entry, 14-Behkabad, the winner of Longchamp's Arc prep, the G2 Prix Niel on September 12th. He's proven over soft ground, and more importantly, soft ground at Longchamp. He makes sense on a lot of levels.
-When I first started looking that the field for this race I was really drawn to Irish Derby winner Cape Blanco, who had looked very impressive in winning the G1 Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown. Then the rain came in and turned Longchamp into a bog, something I believe Cape Blanco wants no part of. Unless there is a dramatic change in the going, Cape Blanco appears to be an unlikely winner.
-Another of the French hopefuls is 16-Planteur, a three-year-old son of Danehill Dancer (IRE) that has finished 2nd in each of his last three races - all over soft ground and two of which were at Longchamp. This colt appears to be getting better and better as the season wears on and he could be sitting on a big effort in this race.
-One of the fillies in this field, 12-Plumania (GB) defeated Yomzain in the G1 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud two races bad and finished 2nd to Midday in the G1 Prix Vermeille in her final Arc prep. I don't think it'd be a shock to see this filly run a good race; I don't know that she's the winner but she could be in the mix.
-If you're looking to bet a horse that runs primarily in the Czech Republic, you are in luck! The 11-Tullamore has run his last three races at Prague and Most...which I know nothing about. He's 50/1 so well take that as a sign that he's a toss.
-Tough to know what to make of the Japanese invader, 7-Nakayama Festa; he ran well over soft ground to finish second in the Prix Foy last month but that race doesn't look to be incredibly strong on paper. Seems like a bit of a while card.
-The filly Sarafina has had a lot written about her in the past week; some believe she could notch another win for the females in this prestigious race. I don't believe the ground or the trip will be an issue but I wonder if she's up to the task of winning at this level. At the same time, she only finished a ½ length behind Plumania last time out, so if you like that filly it's hard not to like this one, as well.
Selections
I'm going to stick with the local entries and the "horse-for-course" angle for this year's Arc and take Planteur and Behkabad. I'll play Planteur to win and then toss the two of them into an exacta with Plumania and Youmzain. I don't think Youmzain has a chance to really win this race but the horse has finished 2nd three years in a row and I'm not about to lose an exacta by not including him.
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The Arc
is this a Breeders Cup Classic qualifying race? also, is there anywhere on the internet to watch it? i looked at fromsport.com but it is not listed.
The Arc is not, the l'Abbaye, the turf sprint, is a BC qualifying race.
I’m not sure on where to watch on the internet. Sadly, coverage of French racing in the US is beyond abysmal, even for the Arc.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
Cool.
Just noticed that TwinSpires.com also has it (which makes sense since they are both owned by Churchill)
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
I Am Totally At A Loss...
..handicapping international racing. At The Races took the 17-Lope De Vega.
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
I try to keep it pretty simple
the best class I can find and horses that can handle the ground. That’s about the extent of my analysis.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Oct 3, 2010 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Sounds Reasonable...
I would probably just favor earnings-by-start, couple with BRIS’ class figure…
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
me too
I am eyeing the 13, 14 and 20 but will probably just pass on it – I just don’t know enough to spend my money.
I'm going with 16 here.
Think he should like the trip.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Oct 3, 2010 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions
I Am Making Win Bets On
1,9,13,14,15,16
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Huge run by Workforce
he bounced back to his Derby from.
Huge run from the Japanese colt. Wonderful race by him.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
Workforce...
3rd in Bris Class…
Inquiry.
Does anyone else hate the way everybody else televises racing? There is no perspective…
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
a bit of argy-bargy 200 yards from home.
I have to start using that phrase….
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
sorry, not yards....meters!
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Well, they don't have the same angle from the grandstand
The track configuration makes camera placement more challenging, unless they were to just put cameras in towers around the track.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Oct 3, 2010 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Would Be Better From Towers, I Think
…as it is, one gets little idea where the horses are on the track, so it just feels like you are watching them run from one lens to another.
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
At least they are starting to use basic fractions in France
this is the first Arc I’ve watched where they put up any kind of splits.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Oct 3, 2010 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Winner should survive the inquiry I reckon
But the French stewards are capable of anything, very strict
The more they show the film
It looks like the horses behind caused the trouble for themselves and winner was clear of it.
Looks like somebody took a couple of horses wide in the stretch
They seem to have lost the audio here so I have no clue who they are looking at.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Oct 3, 2010 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions
I couldn't even tell who they are looking at on the replay
I could see Workforce wasn’t involved but all I saw was a mass of horses behind him.
Are the stewards going to eclipse the amount of time they took when Dylan Thomas won?
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Oct 3, 2010 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions
French stewards known for taking absolutely ages!
There is a trouble on the last bend. Midas Touch the pacemaker has started to stop, there is a bit of bumping when the first horses go round, and Serafina runs right into the back of him, loses her back legs and a decent amount of ground (great run in the circumstances for third), then a lot of tired horses seem to start wandering about in the last 2f. Lot to look at.
Ryan Moore’s run through on the winner almost charmed but he also seems to take every correct decision when it matters
Thanks. That's what I was wondering.
A very nice run by that filly with that kind of trouble.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Oct 3, 2010 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions
And How About The Fact That They Will Have An Inquiry?
…in a major race? We never see that happen, even when it should. (Pioneer of The Nile, I am looking at you and your Derby bump….)
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Yeah, they seem much more apt to take a look
They also punish jockeys over there for dangerous riding and overuse of the whip…something we rarely do at all here.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Oct 3, 2010 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Wish This Would Go Official, So I Can See If I Dutched Correctly....
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
While waiting for the Stewards
you may want to watch the Prix de la Forêt - from earlier today at Longchamp. Goldikova trying to become the European Group 1 record holder
They actually showed that race here on HRTV.
I was expecting Goldikova to be a bit off her game with the ground being as soft as it was. I guess she had other ideas.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Oct 3, 2010 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Great. Thanks.
The first race went off at something like 4am out here … a bit too early for me.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Oct 3, 2010 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions
This Is Ridiculous....
How long are inquiries in France? Are they waiting to run the next race?
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Did you watch the 07 Arc when Dylan Thomas ran?
I think Kieran Fallon was back at the hotel having dinner by the time they called it official.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Oct 3, 2010 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions
No, Really?
Well, what happens to all the other races on the card? Do they not get run?
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Next race not due off until 17.35 CEST
or an hour and a half after the arc (or half an hour from the timestamp on this post. It’s the one race of the year where such a delay hardly matters.
Long time till the next race.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Oct 3, 2010 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions
Ah, us impatient Americans.
We’d be rioting at Churchill Downs if the Derby took this long to make it official. : )
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Oct 3, 2010 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Exacta comes back at $600+
Payouts are huge.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
The Goldikova-Workforce Daily Double
paid $45 for $2. That’s pretty nice for Goldikova and the Derby winner.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
Not Too Bad...
won $40. I’ll take it, considering I really knew nothing about the race!
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
The great thing about betting these international races
is the fields are so huge you are really guaranteed a decent payout if you get a piece, unless the winner is a horse that was absolutely pounded by the NA players…which seems to be rare.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Oct 3, 2010 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Longchamp
actually had fractional times this year. I don’t know how new that is but I love it.
I’m in the process organizing the pace splits for all of today’s Group 1s but I’ve already noticed some really fascinating numbers, especially for Goldikova, who put up fractions that are impressive considering the going.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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