2010 Breeders' Cup: Day 1
by Matt Gardner on Nov 5, 2010 2:16 AM EDT
in Breeders' Cup
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PrintI made it to Louisville without losing a bag or missing a plane. That's a good return on investment right off the bat.
So...Louisville during the Breeders' Cup. Kinda insane.
I can't remember a time in my life when I've been in a town that is so focused on horse racing. Everything in Louisville right now is Breeders' Cup...and it's fantastic. The hotel bar was filled with people holding racing forms or with folks just talkin' horses. Where else would you see that?
If you're a horse racing junkie, Louisville is the destination you should be striving for.
Now that the pleaseantries are out of the way, let's talk Day 1 of the 2010 Breeders' Cup.
My five hour flight from Seattle to Louisville gave me plenty of time to peruse the Form another two or three times, and I think I finally came up with my top picks for Day 1.
Marathon: Precision Break is 15/1 on the morning line and I really like his races on the synthetic surfaces in Europe. That seems like an overlay to me...I'll take Precision Break to win at anything above 10/1.
Juvenile Fillies Turf: If you've read anything I've written this week you already know where I'm going in this race. Kathmanblu won impressively at Keeneland on the grass, has Julien Leparoux in the irons and is a big, fat 10/1 on the morning line. I'm all in.
Filly and Mare Sprint: This is the toughest race of the day, in my opinion, but I'm going to go after a price and play Switch on the cutback at 20/1 on the ML. Stamina won't be a problem and this filly can really run. I figure a 20/1 shot in a race I don't have a great opinion about will work.
Juvenile Fillies: I think A Z Warrior is the standout and I'm going to play her hard in my Pick 4 but I really like Awesome Feather as an upset play. 6/1 ML isn't great but I have a hunch she's going to drift a bit higher.
Filly and Mare Turf: Midday (GB) is the logical choice but I'm going to go with the Japanese horse, Red Desire. I love her last effort and I think she might be sitting on a big one.
Ladies' Classic: Blind Luck is the logical choice but the Breeders' Cup is no time to be picking chalk. I'm all in on Malibu Prayer as I think she might be able to grab an easy, uncontested lead. If she can't, then Havre de Grace is my "B" play,
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Did you see the Good Luck Zenyatta Poster
They had a huge 25-30 foot canvas poster at HP that you could sign that they were sending to Kentucky for display.
Anyways, glad you’re having a good time so far. I’ll probably post a few thoughts in the morning.
Preliminary picks
Marathon
Alcomo.
Juvenile Fillies Turf
Winter Memories.
Filly & Mare Sprint
Switch
Juvenile Fillies
Joyful Victory
Filly & Mare Turf
Hibaayeb.
Ladies’ Classic
Seeking the Title
Seeking the Title
I like the longshot angle on her. Big value.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
Yeah, I mean what the heck right?
I also am going with a longshot in Switch, but I was impressed with her against Z, so I figured that’s a big price on an apparently credible filly.
BTW – even though he’s not my choice, I’d love to see Awesome Gem win and go out a BC Champ, old warrior that he is.
A lot of people are talking about Switch here
Seems to be a popular pick.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Nov 5, 2010 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions
LC/C DD
Matt, glad you made it safely to Louisville.
What’s your Ladies Classic/Classic DD ticket look like?
I'm going to see what the will-pays look like but I'm thinking something like this
$4 Malibu Prayer / Havre de Grace w/ Blame ($8)
$10 Malibu Prayer / Havre de Grace w/ Zenyatta ($20)
I may substitute Looking At Lucky depending on the value on the will-pays.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
Classic - QR
I know this sounds crazy but I don’t see how QR can win without a “super human” effort.
-I don’t think he can break alterly, take the lead, give up the lead to First Dude and Haynesfield, then sit for a bit and expect to take command of the race with 3f to go and get it done.
-I don’t think he can break poorly, be patient, get back in position on the backstretch and then fire.
-I don’t think he can break alertly, take control of the race in the first 2f and hold everyone off.
The fact is QR does need help against a quality field.
by Swale on Nov 5, 2010 11:00 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I think he's got a tough task ahead of him...
Of course, he’s run huge races in the past so I suppose it’s possible he’ll uncork a big one tomorrow. But like you, I just don’t think the race sets up like it needs to for him to win.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Nov 5, 2010 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions
Silly Question
My work blocks out most racing websites and I don’t have access to the websites. What time does the first BC race go off today? I was going to make a run to Turfway on my lunch break and place a few wagers.
Yeah I ran up on my lunch
It didn’t start until 4:10 eastern time. I got all my bets. Doubles and Pick 3’s. A couple of win bets too. I did a pick 4 too, but because of my bankroll and the timing of the bet, I actually had to single Midday in the Pick 4. Hope that doesn’t come back to bite me, but doubt I’ll be alive 3 races in anyway lol.
I noticed Noble’s Promise is running on the undercard. Wasn’t sure how that horse has done since Derby Day, but I almost bet him. Held off to make all my other bets. Good luck guys, hopefully we cash some tickets today.
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