Saturday Racing Action
by Matt Gardner on Feb 13, 2010 11:53 AM EST
in Handicapping
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PrintSome thoughts on a few of the races taking place around the country today:
- Races at Gulfstream have been taken "OFF THE TURF" and the main track is listed as "GOOD". (UPDATE: Gulfstream now listing main track as "FAST".)
- At Tampa Bay Downs, the main track is listed as "GOOD" and the turf is "YIELDING". Pay particular attention to the early dirt races to see how the speed is playing on the off track. Races 1 and 9 are the only two route races on the dirt prior to the G3-Sam F. Davis. (UPDATE: Tampa now listing main track as "FAST".)
- No matter how many times I look at the G3-Endeavour Stakes from Tampa (Race 11, 1 1/16 miles, turf), I keep coming back to 5-Krista's Quik Chic, a 20/1 shot on the morning line. Two likely speed horses have scratched out of this race (4-Romacaca and 11-Meadow Saffron) which should ensure a lighter pace on the front end, a pace that I think Krista's Quik Chic can and will be able to stalk all the way around the track. Her finishing kick in her last effort was superb (her first try over the Tampa lawn) and she runs for a trainer that has been placing his horses well.
- The 3rd at Santa Anita, the Baffle Stakes at 6.5 furlongs on the downhill turf, features six of the seven entries that have yet to try this particular race configuration. I always like to see horses that have run and won over the downhill course due to it's uniqueness as compared to any other turf racing in this country. The only horse in this field that meets that criteria is 7-Via Verde (6/1 ML).
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Fair Grounds is now also "OFF THE TURF"
Don’t you just love winter racing?
Additionally, Gulfstream Park just Tweeted that their main track is “FAST” but they are still “OFF THE TURF”.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
Race 1 at Tampa
The track didn’t look tiring at all as the 1 (6/1 odds) wires the field after going the opening quarter in 22 and 4. The 2/1 favorite made a move on the turn for pull within about two or three lengths but could never get to the winner. Speed looks to be holding, at least for the first race.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
Stalking win for the 10 in the 9th at TAM
Speed seems to be doing well around two turns which makes Rule exceptionally dangerous in the Sam F. Davis.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Feb 13, 2010 4:33 PM EST up reply actions
# Races at Gulfstream have been taken “OFF THE TURF” and the main track is listed as “GOOD”. (UPDATE: Gulfstream now listing main track as “FAST”.)
It doesn’t seem fast.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
It doesn't at all. I'm not sure what to call it.
Seems GOOD, at best.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Feb 13, 2010 2:45 PM EST up reply actions
That was a decent group of 3yo Maidens in race 4
Yet they go 23.38, 46.64, 1:11.43 and 1:24.58 for 7. Not exactly lighting up the board with those fractions. Final 1/8th of a mile in 13?
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Feb 13, 2010 2:49 PM EST up reply actions
GP race 5 looks like some of the SA turf races today
It’s a turf sprint that has a field of horses that generally have never tried to sprint on the turf in their lifetimes. Throw in the fact that it’s an N3L and it’s a freakin’ mess. Tough race, at least to me.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
Then throw in that it's off the turf...probably should remind myself of that.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Feb 13, 2010 3:00 PM EST up reply actions
Speed held nicely in the 2nd at SA
The even money favorite goes W2W while pressed through a half in 45.36.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
The G3-Hurricane Berttie about to go off at GP
5-Warble looks best and she’s taking the action as a result at 2/1.
The 9-Turn Away is an attractive 9/1. If the pace falters she could pick up the pices.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
Yeah, 9's my play in here ... 10/1 on the board.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Feb 13, 2010 4:14 PM EST up reply actions
Well, not so much.
Speed is certainly holding in sprints at GP as that was essentially a merry-go-round race. And the fractions were fair, not insane, but it wasn’t a stroll down the backstretch.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Feb 13, 2010 4:17 PM EST up reply actions
Sam F. Davis now on tap at Tampa
6-Uptownchralybrown and 4-Middle of the Nite taking the early action.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
Big three taking all the cash
Uptowncharlybron 6/5
Middle of the Nite 2/1
Rule 2/1
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Feb 13, 2010 4:50 PM EST up reply actions
Rule down to 4/5
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Feb 13, 2010 5:00 PM EST up reply actions
Rule takes it wire to wire...
The bettors that played Uptowncharlybrown weren’t paying attention to the track at all today. Early speed, especially quality early speed, is not tiring.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Feb 13, 2010 5:09 PM EST up reply actions
will be interested to see
if you hit that 20 to 1 shot at tampa in the 11th that you mentioned(or how close the odds stay to 20 to 1)
www.nwfan.com
I'm hoping so. I hope he doesn't get hammered at the window.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Feb 13, 2010 5:05 PM EST up reply actions
Looks like the 1/5 fav. got up by a nose in the Las Virgenes at SA.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
I've been waiting for the 11th at Tampa all day
5 was 20/1 on the ML…early betting and three scratches takes her to 11. I’ll take that if I can get it.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
My only hesitation with the 5 is the result of the previous turf race today...
A stone cold closer won going 1 1/8 miles and the early fractions were slow as can be. The favorite in the 11th will also be coming off the pace. I’d like to see the 5 forwardly placed but not too involved early on.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Feb 13, 2010 5:17 PM EST up reply actions
pound it man
i’m rooting for you
www.nwfan.com
Thanks for the encouragement
I rarely play 15 or 20/1 shots so we’ll see how this goes. I’ll probably go win/place/show…want to make sure I at least get a nibble if she comes up short.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Feb 13, 2010 5:26 PM EST up reply actions
a horse you like in this spot
at a great price….that’s why i like horse racing :)
www.nwfan.com
The ability to essentially find your race or your horse at your price is a great part of the game.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Feb 13, 2010 5:30 PM EST up reply actions
31/1 now...longest on the board...
can’t remember the last time I played the longest on the board.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Feb 13, 2010 5:31 PM EST up reply actions
Well, that didn't help...
just got crushed in the front stretch.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Feb 13, 2010 5:32 PM EST up reply actions
Ah, good lord...
She moved into a nice position on the turn along the rail but came up empty when switched out in the lane. Not the best trip but still didn’t have that final kick. Would have liked to see her just a little big closer to the pace.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Feb 13, 2010 5:35 PM EST up reply actions
meh
that sucks. still though 31 to 1, you almost have to take that shot with a horse you have a good feeling about don’t you?
hope i didn’t encourage you into a play you didn’t want to make
www.nwfan.com
No, no...I was going to play that all day long.
Gotta take a shot in those situations.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Feb 13, 2010 5:39 PM EST up reply actions
Coming off the turn I thought for sure she would be in the top 3
She ran better than the ML favorite, so I can solace in that.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Feb 13, 2010 5:41 PM EST up reply actions
Race 5 at SA looked like a mess when I handicapped it the other day..
and it just ran like a mess a second ago. Looks like the 7 at 9/1 in the first leg of the Pick 6
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
The re-scheduled Derby Prep, the G2-Bob Lewis, is up next
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Feb 13, 2010 5:44 PM EST up reply actions
is this the one with the horse from e.d.?
www.nwfan.com
No, that will be the Strub...which will be Race 9 today.
Gallant Son is the ED horse.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Feb 13, 2010 5:47 PM EST up reply actions
ok cool
always like watching local connections
www.nwfan.com
He's kind of up against in the Strub...
really more suited to the Turf course at this point. But it’s still nice to see a local on the big stage.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Feb 13, 2010 5:49 PM EST up reply actions
was just about to ask if you think he's got any chance
did this horse with the Longacres Mile? the name sounds really familiar
www.nwfan.com
He ran in the 2 year old stake races...
He won the Gottstein Futurity in 2008, then shipped down to Santa Anita to run in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile that fall where he finished 7th of 12. Since then his two best races were 1 mile events on the grass. He’s a deserved longshot as I’m not sure this is his best distance. But at the same time, if the pace were fall apart he could have a shot to get a piece of the action.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Feb 13, 2010 5:55 PM EST up reply actions
great game between wazzu and cal right now by the way
www.nwfan.com
I know, every game seems to come down to the wire this year.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Feb 13, 2010 5:48 PM EST up reply actions
I need more TVs and computes...too much action on Saturday afternoons
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Feb 13, 2010 5:51 PM EST up reply actions
5 is the only horse in the Lewis not taking at least some cash...
I think 1-Dave in Dixie could be sitting on a nice effort if he gets a clean trip, which he should with this small field.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Feb 13, 2010 6:04 PM EST up reply actions
If 2-Tiz Chrome were to win this race he become a very interesting Derby possibility...
Very few of the West Coast Derby contingent will have shown any form on conventional dirt. Tiz Chrome already has a dirt win over the Chruchill Downs main track…that’s a nice bit of information to have.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Feb 13, 2010 6:10 PM EST up reply actions
Caracotado stays undefeated and wins the Lewis.
Dave in Dixie was running hard in deep stretch but came up a length or so short to finish second. Both of those two look like Derby contenders; as for the rest…eh, Tiz Chrome and American Lion really came up empty when it came time to run.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Feb 13, 2010 6:15 PM EST up reply actions
8th at SA is up featuring Life is Sweet...
I thought this would be a good chance to beat what will probably be an overbet favorite…but instead my pick, the 3, gets pounded down to 6/5 at the opening flash of the odds board. I’ll take the 3 at 5/2 or higher.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
6/5? that's all i'm going to get on the 3?
Come on betting public, the 8 won the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic…throw money at her!
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Feb 13, 2010 6:54 PM EST up reply actions
9/5...this race looks like a pass to me.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Feb 13, 2010 7:08 PM EST up reply actions
Yep, 3 by a length over Life Is Sweet.
6/5 on the winner….meh; the betting public let me down in this one as I was hoping they would hammer Life Is Sweet a little harder.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Feb 13, 2010 7:16 PM EST up reply actions
Last Stake of the day at Santa Anita, the G2-Strub
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
Currently 5/1 on my top choice, the 9-Eagle Poise
Misremembered (apparently a Roger Clemens hore) has been bet to 4/5.
The former Emerald Downs horse, Gallant Son, a current 20/1
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Feb 13, 2010 7:20 PM EST up reply actions
I'm fine with the 1 as the favorite...but at 2/5? Who bets on this horse at 2/5?
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Feb 13, 2010 7:35 PM EST up reply actions
Jeranimo upsets at 10/1
Misremembered 2nd at 4/5…ouch.
9 weakens late and Gallant Son never really got into the race.
…and that’s the way it is.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Feb 13, 2010 7:49 PM EST up reply actions
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