Saturday Open Thread
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 12:07 PM EST
in Stakes Day Open Thread
115 comments
- Tampa will be off the turf for race four but on the turf for all other events (8, 10, and 12). The Hillsborough stays on the turf, which is labeled "YIELDING" today.
I wrote that Hillsborough morning line favorite Mushka would be vulnerable if the turf course came up anything but FIRM, and the connections seem to be thinking the same thing as she is scratched. Cure for Sale (ARG) looks like the standout at this point but will likely offer little value after all the scratches are taken into account.
The main track at Tampa is listed as FAST but I'm guessing is not completely dry as the connections of She Be Wild have decided to scratch her out of Florida Oaks. In my opinion, She Be Wild would have been another absolute bet against with an off track. -
No track report from Gulfstream yet. Gulfstream will be off the turf today, with many scratches in the originally scheduled turf races. - Changes for Oaklawn are up. Track is FAST.
- Changes for Santa Anita are up. Main track is FAST, turf is FIRM.
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Strong headwind down the backstretch at FG today.
Could hinder early speed in the sprint races.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
Not sure what to make of the FG track so far today.
Apparently, the track was sealed prior to the first race, which generally favors the front runners, but there’s also a strong wind blowing right into the horses as they come down the backstretch. Closers are running well but not dominating.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 2:58 PM EST up reply actions
Nice looking firster for Asmussen/Bridgmohan at FG in race 4
Wire to wire in 1:10.25. That filly was moving awfully nicely in the stretch.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 3:15 PM EST up reply actions
Tampa now listed "WET FAST"
The track doesn’t appear tiring at all with early speed holding well in the first two races.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
Through five races at TAM, winner's position at 1/2 mile:
Race 1: 3rd, -2 (1 mile 40 yds)
Race 2: 1st, +1/2 (6f)
Race 3: 3rd, -4 1/2 (7f)
Race 4: 2nd, -2 1/2 (1 1/16 miles)
Race 5: 2nd, -hd (6 f)
Only one horse leading at 1/2 mile mark, both route winners were a couple lengths back.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 3:05 PM EST up reply actions
Hillsborough on the turf at TAM is next on the card
With Mushka out the Irish-bred Liberally, is taking most of the cash at 9/5. Cure for Sale sits at 3/1.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 3:39 PM EST up reply actions
Phola easily wins the Hillsborough with a big turn of foot off the turn.
Cure for Sale nabs the place spot.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 4:01 PM EST up reply actions
2nd race at Oaklawn
Textbook reason you don’t bet hard on a horse trying dirt for the first time after running well on plastic.
Bafffert’s Broken Tango was the 6/5 favorite when the gate opened, had showed a lot of speed at Santa Anita, and didn’t run a lick the entire race. Broken Tango didn’t even show a work over the dirt….just can’t back a horse like that at short odds but the public sure did.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
Diva Delite taking a lot of money in the Fla. Oaks at TAM (race 9)
Currenly 8/5 fav. Second fav. is Cuff Me at 9/5.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
Looks like 8/5 on Diva Delight as they head to the gate.
She would have been a decent price had She Be Wild not scratched. Hate scratches…
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 4:28 PM EST up reply actions
Half mile in .50....quite slow
Diva Delite too much filly for this field. Impressive. Rallied off of a slow pace.
Horse. For. Course.
Man, it would have been nice to get a price on that filly. Damn you Wayne Catalano!
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 4:34 PM EST up reply actions
About 45 minutes until the Tampa Bay Derby
which kicks-off 2 to 2.5 hours of stakes Derby preps, Rachel, and Zenyatta.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
20 minutes till Tampa Bay Derby
Currently, Odysseus at 9/5 on the board. Super Saver at 2/1.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
I think these odds are pretty well set for this race
Maybe Schoolyard Dreams takes some money right before post at the expense of Uptowncharlybrown, but I doubt we see Odysseus or Super Saver move a whole lot in the next 15 minutes.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 5:18 PM EST up reply actions
Ears pricked on Shoolyard Dreams in the paddock...
looks quite nice. As does Odysseus. Of course, what do I know about physical handicapping? Very, very little.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 5:20 PM EST up reply actions
Not many ways to go betting wise in this race...
Schoolyard Dreams looks like the value play at 5/1.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 5:24 PM EST up reply actions
Not a bad play at all
I figured Schoolyard Dreams would take a little more money but that local horse, Uptowncharlybrown, is helping to inflate the odds.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 5:31 PM EST up reply actions
He's worked like a freight train since the Sam F. Davis.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 5:34 PM EST up reply actions
Wow that race absolutely fell apart
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 5:37 PM EST up reply actions
Looks like Schoolyard Dreams won it.
Not sure how fast they were coming home in that one.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 5:38 PM EST up reply actions
He made that big move on the turn
and I thought he was going to be the easy winner then all hell broke loose.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 5:42 PM EST up reply actions
7-5-6-3....
I want to see that photo…I can’t believe the 7 won.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
That was a really ugly finish.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 5:44 PM EST up reply actions
No Such Word just won the Honeybee over at Oaklawn...
too many races at one time.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
Can't understand Beautician going off at even money
Would have picked 2- Decelerator had I been paying attention
I agree...didn't care for her at all.
she’s never beaten winners, never won around two turns, hadn’t run on dirt in a several months….too many questions to play at that price.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 5:49 PM EST up reply actions
Okay, now they are going off at GP
in the Gulfstream Park Handicap. This One’s For Phil the fav at 8/5.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
He'll get there eventually.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 5:51 PM EST up reply actions
Big upset
You and I Forever at 16/1 in the Gulfstream Park Handicap. This One’s For Phil nowhere to be found at the wire.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 5:50 PM EST up reply actions
22 minutes until Rachel's 8.5 furlong workout..
1/9 to win on RA…I’ll be watching the show pool.
Rachel has 97.6% of the show pool right now.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
There is $100,000 in the Win pool
$500,000 in the Show pool. Hmmmmmm.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 5:55 PM EST up reply actions
Pool % for Rachel
91% of Win pool
73% of Place pool
97% of Show pool
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 5:58 PM EST up reply actions
In effect ...
someone is risking $500K to win $25K on a show bet – right? (provided the 500K came from one bettor) Can a $2 show bet pay less than 2.10?
Yep.
Depends on the state…most pay 2.10 minimum….some states pay to the nickel, I believe, but I could be wrong.
That’s not a risk I’d be willing to take in horse racing…too much can go wrong. I rather put 500k down on black at the roulette table.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 6:03 PM EST up reply actions
Assuming, of course, that I had $500k to throw around.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 6:04 PM EST up reply actions
I wonder if we'll see another large chunk of change hit the show pool before post?
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 6:06 PM EST up reply actions
I highly doubt it.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 6:10 PM EST up reply actions
Yep...bigger field and she's a closer...
so much more can go wrong when you got to pass everyone else.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 6:13 PM EST up reply actions
It's not often you see a horse with 95% of a pool.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 6:11 PM EST up reply actions
The track feed from Fair Grounds shows their "computer picks"...
the computer picked the 3 as the top choice. Might need to reprogram that computer.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 6:13 PM EST up reply actions
Yep, Jessica Pacheco.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 6:16 PM EST up reply actions
Here we go...2 minutes to post
I hope RA runs well and is good and healthy in order to move on to the Apple Blossom.
Now $960K in the Show pool, almost all on RA
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
The Show bettors are coming out of the woodwork for this one.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 6:17 PM EST up reply actions
Can I call this race over yet?
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 6:19 PM EST up reply actions
Wow...Jessica Pacheco is a goodess!!!
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 6:20 PM EST up reply actions
Teaches me to question Jessica!!!
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 6:21 PM EST up reply actions
Ears pricked on the backstretch.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 6:20 PM EST up reply actions
Oh my goodness!
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 6:20 PM EST up reply actions
I'll second that. Great call.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 6:21 PM EST up reply actions
Rachel beaten by a horse trained by John Shirreffs...Zenyatta's trainer.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
Seven minutes until Zenyatta
will both lose today?
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
I really wonder now if that will happen.
Rachel’s connections haven’t seemed really eager to run in that race to begin with. Hell, they really haven’t seemed interested in running her much at all this year. Won’t be surprised if it doesn’t happen now.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 6:29 PM EST up reply actions
I saw that....
that surprises me . I don’t think she’ll lose but what if a horse breaks down in front of her and she gets a horrible trip? Awfully risky prop with that kind of money.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 6:31 PM EST up reply actions
The Rebel is coming up ... that's why I'm here ... well that and the Tampa Bay Derby
Did you see that photo yet? Wow.
I haven't seen the photo yet...
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 6:26 PM EST up reply actions
The Rebel is going to be a hell of a race. Just loaded with talent.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 6:27 PM EST up reply actions
15 minutes till the Rebel
Dublin at 6/5 right now.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
Lookin At Lucky at 6/5 also
Hate those odds on him. he’s a nice colt but too many questions to take that short of a price.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 6:34 PM EST up reply actions
Uh Oh Bango at 8/1
Great price on a very talented colt. Lots of betting options in this race.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 6:37 PM EST up reply actions
Post time at Santa Anita for the Santa Margarita.
Zenyatta at 1/9.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
Pace is a little faster than I expected.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 6:43 PM EST up reply actions
Ha, good lord....
Tough to beat a mare that just knows where the finish line is.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 6:45 PM EST up reply actions
Hard to pick Noble's Promise vs. Lookin At Lucky
but Noble’s Promise working well and battle tested. Maybe today’s the day? I’m passing on Dublin until he can show he knows how to come out of the gate.
That's my feeling on Noble's Promise..
I think him and Lucky are very close but I like the dirt works.
This race could go in several different directions.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 6:42 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I mean, he still didn't get to the bottom of her.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
Never hit her with the stick. Think about that.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
Noble's Promise at 5/1 is awfully enticing...as does Uh Oh Bango.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 6:47 PM EST up reply actions
Uh Oh Bango in a nice position on the rail.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 6:48 PM EST up reply actions
Okay....Rebel...1 minute to post...
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
This will be close.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 6:51 PM EST up reply actions
That was a very good race.
The California horses have looked really good this spring.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 6:52 PM EST up reply actions
Baffert's move certainly pays off.
and now I don’t have to wonder about Lucky’s dirt form when he starts in the Derby…which is something I didn’t want to have to do.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 6:55 PM EST up reply actions
Lost two graded stakes trifects by two noses.
I’m going to leave the house for a while.
Thanks for the conversation MattG – appreciate the work you do on your blog. See you again.
No problem...have a good one.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 6:59 PM EST up reply actions
And thanks for stopping by.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 7:00 PM EST up reply actions
Last stake of the day, the San Felipe, in 35 minutes.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
16 to post in the San Felipe
Caracortado at 6/5.
Been a long, and for the last couple of hours, a hectic day of racing. Time to finish it off with a winner. I’m going to stick with Dave in Dixie…liked the way he finished up in the Lewis and think he could improve a bunch in this race, his second off a long layoff.
Interesting that Interactif is getting zero play in this race (13/1). Yikes!
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
Post time in the San Felipe...
Caracortado 6/5…Dave in Dixie still 3/1.
Won’t be surprised at the winner of this one unless it’s the 1 or the 3.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
And there you go...
Sidney’s Candy get’s it all his own way on the front end and puts away the field in the San Felipe. Interactif made a bid inside the final furlong but couldn’t get to the leader. Caracortado loses the first race of his career.
Good point made by the talking heads….the leader won’t go 6f in 1:13 in the Kentucky Derby.
"A bad day at the race track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Mar 13, 2010 7:51 PM EST up reply actions
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