Have Trainers Figured Out The Synthetic-to-Dirt Move Yet?
by JP Fanshawe on Apr 17, 2010 11:11 PM EDT
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So, last year I threw out all the Derby horses coming into the race out of synthetic preps, and I was mostly right. I was keyed to Papa Clem and Musket Man with All in the one hole in exactas, trifectas, and superfectas (so, it could have been a life-changing day if Pioneer of the Nile had been taken down, as I think he would have been in any other race)...my question to my esteemed colleagues on this board: have trainers gotten to a point where they have figured out how to use synthetic tracks to prep for dirt races? I mean, I used to key the Bluegrass winner just about automatically, but since Keeneland's switch, that race's winner has become an automatic throw-out for me.
Lookin' At Lucky is in the mix, even with the SA Derby as his last out, because he has demonstrated ability on dirt. But I have serious doubts about Sidney's Candy (no dirt starts), Stately Victor (two dirt starts - 5th beaten 6, and 7th beaten 9), Dean's Kitten (no wins on dirt), Interactif (only dirt win was a 5 furlong dirt sprint, other wins have been on turf), Make Music For Me (only win was on turf and no dirt starts), Setsuko (no dirt starts), Caracortado (only dirt start was a four-furlong maiden), and Connemara (no dirt starts). With the exception of Lucky, I am inclined to say that the Derby winner will not come from this list.
As I peruse the DRF's list of contenders' PP's, it strikes me that a few trainers seem to have moved horses from synthetic to dirt one or two races out from the Derby, and with success. American Lion's win in the Illinois Derby after five starts on synthetics is high on my list for Eion Harty. And he has Flores aboard. Noble's Promise has had his last two starts on dirt after a career on plastic, but it doesn't look like he will make the Derby field due to possible injury. Line of David for Sadler also fits this mold, but I don't think any of us think a frontrunner such as he can win this race, do we?
A horse that might provide intrigue is Pleasant Prince. Bred for the distance and coming off of a poor effort in the Blue Grass, he is sure to be overlooked. Since I am a handicapper that pays some attention to trainer intentions, I am confused by Wesley Ward's decision to run Pleasant Prince in the Bluegrass, when all but one of his prior races were on dirt. I have to believe there might have been method to that madness.
Thoughts? Because I think I still think I feel like I did last year, which leads me to....Endorsement. I know. I didn't mention him above. More on that later.
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Excellent post...
I tell you, I really like Endorsement. Yeah, he’s light on experience but he’s got a ton of upside. He’ll need to get the trip (like everyone else in the field) but he could be a huge overlay at post time. Endorsement at 15/1 or more to win? Yes, please. No way I leave him out of my Pick 4 (which who knows how deep I’ll end up going).
Sidney’s Candy, for me, is a toss in the Derby. If he comes back to beat me and take my money, so be it. But there is no way I’m playing a “synthetic only” front runner in the Kentucky Derby…especially since his odds will likely be something less than fat. I have no problem with synthetic racing (I actually love Keeneland since they went Poly because my ROI finally started going in the right direction), but when it comes to the Derby, the Poly preps are hit and miss.
Here’s the question I’d have for a lot of trainers: what is your desired goal when you switch a horse from dirt to synthetic for a Derby prep (ie, Odysseus, Uptowncharlybrown, and a host of others). Prior success over Poly or turf has been a critical factor at Keeneland since the switch, yet we still see trainers use that Blue Grass to get critical graded earnings for “dirt only” horses. Just doesn’t make sense. Similarly, if you’ve got a “synthetic only” horse, like Sidney’s Candy, don’t you need to find out if he can run on dirt prior to the Derby? That’s something that I’d want to know if I was a trainer.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
I Agree...To Me, It Is All About Understanding The Trainer's Intention...
…what is the goal in going dirt-to-synthetic, because I don’t think the answer could ever be: “Because I am prepping my horse for a major event on dirt.” I think that some trainers may actually just be pointing for the synthetic prep races themselves. Larger than normal purses, and bigger Turf events coming up in the summer.
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
I'm promoting this one to the front page because...
well, it’s an excellent discussion point.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
Thanks...
I have been doing most of my horse writing over at ESPN’s message board, but I just recently discovered you and I am migragting your way. I am encouraging some of the smarter people over there to come with me. I much prefer the SB Nation venue…
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
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