Kentucky Derby Post Positions and Odds
by MattGSeattle on Apr 28, 2010 11:52 AM EDT
in Triple Crown
38 comments
The draw for this Saturday's Kentucky Derby will occur at approximately Noon Eastern / 9am Pacific live on HRTV. I'll provide a running commentary in the comments section below plus a Post Position / ML odds chart immediately following the draw.
UPDATED: Below are the post positions and the morning line for Kentucky Derby 136.
Feel free to comment on your thoughts regarding the draw or the morning line. The story of the draw, obviously, is the brutal post for favorite Lookin At Lucky. I'm already trying to decide how this will change my odds line.
(click on the image for a larger version.)
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It seems official at this point...
Backtalk and Make Music for Me are both expected to draw into the Derby to take the places of Endorsement and Interactif.
Make Music for Me will now scratch out of the American Turf on Friday.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
There were two exclusions
Pleasant Prince and Setsuko
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
Equipment changes
Blinkers off for Lucky…blinkers on for Devil May Care.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
eh, not a great post for him.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Apr 28, 2010 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
another tough draw
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Apr 28, 2010 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
20 Sidney's Candy
well, he’ll can gun from there.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
16 Awesome Act
good post for this colt.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
2 Ice Box
good draw for the closer
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
9 Make Music for Me
Rosario on the mount
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
So Lucky and Sidney's Candy got tough draws
Lucky especially. Bad draw from Baffert.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
Lucky made the fav at 3/1
Sidney’s Candy 2nd choice at 5/1…
Three at 10/1: Awesome Act, Ice Box, and Devil May Care
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
No Endorsement...?
…well, cuss…
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Yeah, that stinks, I liked him.
I’m surprised they even tried to work him this morning, there was a lot of murmuring that he wasn’t loving it at Churchill.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Apr 28, 2010 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Based on the draw
Would you consider tossing Lucky from an tri/super box?
I like Talamo and I know Big Brown rumbled from the 20, but do you think Sidney can? I haven’t been all that impressed with his Beyer numbers.
Casually.
I Think Sidney Can't Help...
…but get caught up in a speed duel from that post. And I don’t think he has the stuff to wire. Lucky figures to get caught with a bunch of traffic in front of him, but he has dealt with traffic issues before. I can see him dropping back and looking for a clean trip toward the end of the race.
I would use both in the three and four holes, but only Lucky any higher.
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
That's probably my thought, too.
Lucky seems to always get into the top 4 no matter how bad the trip….of course, the Derby is so much different.
This draw is just insane, I never would have imaged it falling like this. It’s a bad draw for Noble’s Promise, as well. There’s a horse that can’t stay out of trouble to save his life and he draws #3? Ugh.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Apr 28, 2010 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm dealing with that right now..
I really like Lucky but I just hate this draw, especially given his tendency to get into problems in races. I really don’t know what I’m going to do with him yet.
I agree with you, I haven’t liked Sidney at all this spring, mainly due to the soft fractions in his races. People say he can rate but it’s tough to take 5/1 on a horse in the Derby that we’ve never seen rate except for in a 7f maiden race. My plan with this horse is to probably toss him from my tris and supers, but play him in the Pick 3 or Pick 4 as coverage. I can’t bring my self to toss him completely.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Apr 28, 2010 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
maybe we can start there...
I don’t want to jump the gun on your Derby predictions post, but which horses are you tossing right off the bat so we can begin to narrow the field?
Casually.
Well...
I’ll toss Homeboykris, Line of David, American Lion, Dean’s Kitten, and Make Music of Me right off the bat. I’ll probably toss Jackson Bend (primarily due to pedigree and stamina), and Mission Impazible (just didn’t like the La Derby this year). I’d probalby throw Discreetly Mine in there due to the pace (although I think he gets a good draw for a speed horse). I’m going to keep Conveyance in the mix as the speed horse that I think might hang around the longest.
So that’s, what? Seven horses I probably won’t touch (although I make sneak Mission Impazible into the back half of a super wheel.)
I guess the easiest idea is who I like on top. I think Ice Box, Super Saver, Awesome Act and Dublin would be my four top choices based on drawn, odds, and expected pace.
Noble’s, Stately Victor, Paddy, the filly, Lucky and Sidney are all horses I’m trying to decide what to do with.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Apr 28, 2010 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions
narrowed field to 8?
I think #2, #4, #16, #17 & #20 got the best draws. Threw #20 in there only because he is a speed horse. But I have the field narrowed down to 8 horses that I think have a great chance to win the derby. Let me know how you think these picks stand and the best way to bet on these 8. Thanks! My top 5 are : Lookin at Lucky, Awesome Act, Nobles Promise, Super Saver,and Sidney’s Candy. Then my next three: Ice Box, Jackson Bend, and Dublin. Had Endorsement in there but now with the injury I put Dublin in the top 8.
I was all set to play Lucky, Super Saver, and Noble hard...
and then the draw came and blew all those ideas out of the water. Typical.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on Apr 28, 2010 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions
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