One to Win
by Matt Gardner on Apr 29, 2010 5:00 PM EDT
in Triple Crown
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PrintWith such an assortment of horses and wagers to chose from we all tend to have a multitude of bets going during Derby in which any number of results could trigger a payout. However, sometimes we get away from trying to figure out which is the one horse that we like the best (a hard task to do in a wide-open twenty horse field). With that in mind, I'd thought I'd open it up to a very simple question:
If you could only make a single win bet on Saturday's Kentucky Derby, who do you bet and why? Would you go for the horse that's been winning a lot of races, a pedigree play, pace scenario, or value on the board? Whatever the reason, what would be your one horse to bet to win?
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Inside Scoop
I will have to go with Lookin at Lucky. Bad post position for sure, but think Lucky and Garrett can position themselves correctly by the first turn, settle in, watch them burn out up front and use their experience to be right there at the end. Blinkers are off – tells me Lucky will handle his long wait in the gate and has learned to pay attention down the stretch. all that aside – my boss owns this horse so I have been following Luckys path.
A single bet from me would go to...
Awesome Act – I don’t think he’s the most talented (all things equal, I’d take Lucky) but I think his draw, the pace, and his odds would make him the horse I’d choose if I only had one bet to make.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
Believe it or not -Awesome is my second choice. But I think Lucky has been labeled as one who gets into trouble. I prefer to look at what he has done repeatedly after he has been in trouble. Garrett has been his only Jock, knows the horse very well, and has alot to prove (and gain) by this next ride. I truly believe that we have not seen Lucky at his best yet, and that he is the type of horse that is very adaptable to any situation handed to him (synthetic to dirt) and would do very well on a muddy track – almost a certainty on Derby day.
I'm a big Leparoux fan, as well.
that’s kid’s won me some money in the past, especially on the lawn.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Apr 29, 2010 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Value Play
I like Ice Box at 12+-1.
Excellent closing speed and that Florida Derby Beyer figure (99) and stretch run were impressive.
Casually.
Great Question...
I don’t know yet, but I think it will be between Ice Box and Mission Impazible….
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
A single bet -
how much money this single bet is would make a difference to me.
for a $2 win bet I would put that on Super Saver – great speed figure already at CD and Borel owns the track right now.
however, if i had $50 or $100 i would bet it to show on #10 Paddy O’Prado.
I love the Borel/CD angle on Super Saver...
it’s the main thing that has him high on my board.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Apr 29, 2010 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Hope you made those bets!
Nice picks!
by JenniFenniBenni on May 2, 2010 2:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Borel/CD/Super Saver
MattG ~ let’s just hope everyone else doesn’t jump on!
i can sense Ice Box dropping to 5/2 at 530ET tomorrow the betting opens. everyone is talking about him and Andy Beyer picked him in his exacta.
Isn't Andy Beyer Derby picks the kiss of death now?
I kid, cause Andy has made more money in this game than I could dream of, but still, the last few years Derby picks haven’t been kind.
As I said earlier, if I had one bet it’s probably Awesome Act but Super Saver is the colt I really like this week. I know he appears to be pace compromised but I have this feeling that the pace may not be as fast as we think. I don’t know that Sidney and Line of David will try to run with Conveyance into the first turn. We’ll see…whatever happens, it will be fun as susual.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Apr 29, 2010 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions
My two cents on a single bet
Exacta on Super Saver and Ice Box. Super Saver is improving with each race and with Calvin aboard they’ll be hard to stop. Ice Box will hopefully be less than 5 wide coming up the outside gobbling up ground like it was the last bit of real estate on the planet.
by JenniFenniBenni on Apr 29, 2010 8:09 PM EDT reply actions
Ice Box is working so well these past two weeks...
he really looks good, doesn’t he?
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Apr 29, 2010 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions
$2 exacta = $152.40
Woohoo! Super Saver and Ice Box made my day! I couldn’t believe the trip Ice Box made. What an incredible horse!
by JenniFenniBenni on May 2, 2010 1:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Borel
I see where he had a tough day yesterday – no winners, one 2nd and mostly he was in the bottom half. hope it’s not the beginning of something!
Jackson Bend
Like the PP, like the horse, and don’t necessarily think he needs to run the race of his life to win. Most of the preps have fallen apart in the stretch and expect the Derby to do the same, especially in the slop. Also – there are no “Mine That Birds” running this year. Anyone can win.
Jackson Bend is ultra consistent, you gotta give him that...
seems to always be right there.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Apr 30, 2010 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions
I sense old man Lukas lurking in the weeds. If you like wise-guy Super Saver, how can you ignore Dublin at a price?
Good bottom from last year, three solid races this year (not two), speed figures that put him in the top tier. Obviously, the two CD efforts are weak, but DWL has been known to get a Kentucky bump when he needs it.
A little concerned about the slow work on the muddy track, but tomorrow’s rain will likely mean a wet-fast track, not a gooey one.
This is a good Derby to swing for the fences.
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