Derby Day!
by MattGSeattle on May 1, 2010 10:03 AM EDT
in Triple Crown
128 comments
UPDATE: Here's a list of the under card winners today at Churchill for races on the dirt and their position after ½ mile:
Race 1, 1 1/16 miles: Stay Put (4th)
Race 2, 1 mile: Zimmer (1st)
Race 3, 1 1/16 miles: Sheryl's Melody (3rd)
Race 4, 6 furlongs: Wise Dan (5th)
Race 5, 1 1/16 miles: PIckabocket (4th)
Race 6, 7 ½ furlongs: Buckleupbuttercup (4th)
Race 7, 7 furlongs: Atta Boy Roy (1st)
The only two wire-to-wire winners were ridden by Calvin Borel, and he's the only one that's been able to win on the rail (of course).
------
Lots and lots of rain overnight at Churchill Downs and a lot of changes on the card due to races 3 and 5 coming off the turf (rated as "YIELDING"). Changes can be found here.
A quick rundown of the Derby horses that have run over off tracks and their best finish:
Super Saver - 1st, Maiden Special Weight at Belmont (9/11/09, track "Sloppy/Sealed")
Stately Victor - 2nd, Maiden Special Weight at Saratoga (8/22/09, track "Good")
Dean's Kitten - 5th, Pilgrim Stakes at Belmont (10/4/09, track "Good")
Paddy O'Prado - 7th, Maiden Special Weight at Churchill (7/4/09, track "Sloppy/Sealed")
Devil May Care - 1st, Maiden Special Weight at Saratoga (8/29/09, track "Sloppy")
Mission Impazible - 2nd, Allowance N1X at Gulfstream (1/9/10, track "Sloppy/Sealed")
Discreetly Mine - 4th, Spectacular Bid Stakes at Gulfstream (1/9/10, track "Sloppy/Sealed")
Dublin - 4th, Maiden Special Weight at Churchill (6/11/09, track "Good")
Backtalk - 1st, Sportsman's Paradise Stakes at Delta Downs (2/26/10, track "Sloppy/Sealed")
Homeboykris - 4th, Maiden Special Weight at Calder (6/
27/09, track "Good")
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From the wagering post:
I wish that 11 Devil May Care has someone better aboard because I’d like her in some exotics.
As it is now, I like 16 Awesome Act, 4 Super Saver, 7 American Lion and 15 Discreetly Mine
I think 7 American Lion is going to be my pivot horse in almost everything I bet.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
The rain makes this one brutal to play...hate the slop.
I like your top two a lot.
There was talk this morning on HRTV that American Lion may scratch out due to the rain. Don’t know how reliable that is but just an FYI.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on May 1, 2010 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions
…That would be every so slightly annoying. I love spending five hours handicapping only to have a scratch.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I know, I hear you...
my undercard plays are a disaster right now…have no idea what to do since I spent the early part of my handicapping not thinking about scratches, yielding turf..etc.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on May 1, 2010 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions
There’s not nearly enough info on any of these horses on bad surfaces. This is going to be a complete crapshoot.
I might just grab the longest odds and see what happens.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Most haven't touched slop since they were two year olds..
and in sprint races…doesn’t tell us much, does it?
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on May 1, 2010 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Right now, the longest odds are on Discreetly Mine, which isn’t out of the realm of possibility. If you like Mission Impazable…..
It’s amazing how much money the no-hopers are taking (8,9,18,19). This wasn’t surprising yesterday when lots of dumb money went into the early pool. Maybe the weather and the irrelevant talk about post positions are getting people to chase longshots more than usual.
I like Discreetly Mine on a fair track, so why the heck not in the slop?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
My fear is that one of these frontrunners is going to take to the slop and wire the field, kicking back mud all the way. But I can’t even guess which it would be.
I guess the play then would be the best front runner from 7-14.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I guess the play then would be the best front runner from 7-14.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Conveyance...
I feel like he’s going to be in front after the first quarter but I’m not too confident about him at 10 panels.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on May 1, 2010 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Hey, FWIW-- Discreetly Mine's sire Mineshaft ...
… won the Grade I Pimlico Special in the slop and his dam Pretty Discreet won the 1 1/4 mile Grade I Alabama by eight lengths in the slop.
Mint Julep
I've noticed that, as well..
I don’t remember exactly how the betting went the next year after Giacomo but my fuzzy recollection is that it was something like this, where everyone wanted to have a piece of the long shots. Barbaro was the second choice at 6/1 that year. I think the defections of a couple big names along with people thinking it’s a Mine That Bird/Giacomo scenario have the long shots taking more money than we’d expect.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on May 1, 2010 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
I think you are right. It just seems like the wrong longshots. I’d put everything on Discreetly Mine before I would ever consider the likes of Dean’s Kitten.
But Mine that Bird was the wrong longshot, too.
Homeboykris, as well.
I suppose he could win…but odds of 21/1 for him (at least right now)? No way.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on May 1, 2010 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Derby Day!
Here’s my analysis that I posted over at my Hoyas site.
I think I’m rolling with a ‘value’ 5 horse tri box with Dublin, Mission Impazible, Super Saver Ice Box, and Paddy O’Prado, though as Sidney’s Candy’s odds keep rising I’m tempted to add a 6th.
Casually.
Good stuff, Hoya...
love your take on the field.
Sidney’s Candy is a colt I haven’t liked at all, but like you, if those odds go up enough I could be enticed for a nibble.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on May 1, 2010 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions
The 2nd race was classic Borel...
broke well, grabbed the lead on the rail, put everyone away in the stretch. Nice price on Zimmer, as well.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
Hope so.
Although, I’d like to see those odds drift back up to about 15/1…
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on May 1, 2010 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Heh. American Lion over Discreetly Mine
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Dutrow on ESPN...
“It might be our only chance if our horse likes it (the track)”….there’s confidence for you.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
I'm waiting for the Pick 4 starting with race 8...
trying to figure out how the track is playing before jumping into the pools.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by MattGSeattle on May 1, 2010 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I just bet each race. I don't even put any thought into it. I pick a horse.
Caught the last 2 races. Lost on the first and I had Pickapocket to win and place last race. This one I got Visavis to win and dontstopdancin to place
I AM SOMETIMES BIASED - Get over it!!!!!!!
I'll start a Pick 3 with this first grass race...
as I like the 3 and 5 a bunch in the 7th.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
She should like the soft ground...
as she’s won over it before…5/1 is nice, as well.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
Got Hot Cha Cha winning and placing and I got Diamondrella winning
I AM SOMETIMES BIASED - Get over it!!!!!!!
Pick 6 starts here in Race 6
If you are so bold to play it….I’d have to empty the bank account to come up a playable ticket. Not happening today.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
Come on! The element of risk! That’s why they call it gambling!
(I don’t actually know anything about horse racing.)
by Benjamin Massey on May 1, 2010 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh, I love the risk...
Just gotta be the right risk.
The quick and dirty on Pick 6 tickets: they can get real expensive, real fast. (cost multiplies by how many horses you play in each race). There are people who will put $500 or more into a Pick 6 and not thing twice about it.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
Pletcher...
he’s got to win one of these year’s….right?
Moss made a good point on ESPN…it’s not like he’s had 24 favorites in the Derby, or even 24 low priced horses. Still, you’d think he’d have won one by now.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
ESPN's coverage...
I love the HD. Moss and Bailey are great. Tessatore drives me nuts….bring back Chris Fowler for these broadcasts.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
that's two for Leparoux today.
Nice race by Buckleupbuttercup…the middle part of the track certainly seems to be the place to be in the lane.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
For the Derby
I like Awesome Act as well as any of the horses in the first 4 positions even though the middle of the track has been running the best.
I AM SOMETIMES BIASED - Get over it!!!!!!!
For the Derby
I like Awesome Act as well as any of the horses in the first 4 positions even though the middle of the track has been running the best.
I AM SOMETIMES BIASED - Get over it!!!!!!!
I think the way the track is playing right now...
would be very nice for Awesome Act since he’ll probably be out off the rail in the stretch. Of course, the track could change drastically between now and the race.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
10 MTP for race 7...
very even betting across the board.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
Not a ton of speed in here..
Tizaqueena should get a clear lead early. We’ll see how things hold up on the front end over the yielding course.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
I'm going deep to kick off a Pick 3...
Pretty evenly matched race and odds….so I hit the ALL button.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
Glad I hit the all button cause Phola would have been my last inclusion.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
He hasn’t been my pick, but people are going to be kicking themselves if Lucky wins this race at 8-1. I know a lot of things can go wrong and the track may be funny, but one of my handicapping principles (usually applied in retrospect) is that sometimes the best horse actually wins the race. The best horse is currently sitting at 8-1. With $9,000,000 in the pool, it’s not going to move very much.
I agree...
the odds are going to probably stay where they are at this point.
I usually go after the P4 on Derby day but the value looks like it’s going to be in the Win/Exotic pools.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
41 MTP for RACE 8
I’ll try to beat Informed Decision in this race.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
I got Dubai Majesty in my P3, so that would work.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
I went with:
Informed Decision win
Dubai Majesty Win
Dubai Majesty Place
I AM SOMETIMES BIASED - Get over it!!!!!!!
I like Pretty Prolific a little in here..
spread to her in my P3 and P4 with the top fillies. Coming off the pace may be a benefit.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
I put in a single ticket for my wife's pick Free Flying Soul to win.
I AM SOMETIMES BIASED - Get over it!!!!!!!
Always a good move...that's probably your winner.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
I always throw in a single ticket on her pick just before the race.
I also remember winning this race last year betting on Informed Decision. I kept picking losers and then I saw the horses name and figured I’d make an informed decision and chose this horse……..
I AM SOMETIMES BIASED - Get over it!!!!!!!
I got a buddy that has a wife that likes to pick horses...
with “Bird” in the name….
Needless to say, last year’s Derby and Belmont, and the Smarty Jones Belmont, were good days for her.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
Tough race....
the 6 was there but couldn’t get up.
Those front runners were worn down at the end
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
There is a neighborhood picnic going on and I just asked a 8 year old and an 11 year old girl to pick my horses for the next race.
They chose Victory Notion and Munnings.
Lets see how they do. I’ll put my money on them.. I thought they would have liked Attta Boy Roy
I AM SOMETIMES BIASED - Get over it!!!!!!!
Funny thing about Atta Boy Roy...
he ran out here at Emerald Downs last year…four times in Seattle and not one race over a wet track.
I can’t remember the last time I saw a Washington-bred horse running on the Derby under card.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
ATTA BOY ROY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Since niether of the girls picked him, he was my pick!!!!!!!!
I AM SOMETIMES BIASED - Get over it!!!!!!!
Missed the last race, but I had to win General Quarters and Pop Tartt
On a streak!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Too bad I didnt do a pick 3
I AM SOMETIMES BIASED - Get over it!!!!!!!
yeah, the Pick 3 is going to pay large to the Derby
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
Which horses in the Derby specialize in turning it up late? Like they were just saying. Horses down the miiddle and late, which is a synthetic trend?
I AM SOMETIMES BIASED - Get over it!!!!!!!
There are several
Ice Box, Stately Victor, Backtalk are off-the-pace types. Plus Lucky, Dublin, Awesome Act have all run races where they came from a decent distance back to be in contention. There’s probably one or two I’m missing.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
Just called in my bets
I’m calling Super Saver wire-to-wire
You don't seem to want to accept the fact you're dealing with an expert in guerrilla warfare, with a man who's the best, with guns, with knives, with his bare hands. A man who's been trained to ignore pain, ignore weather, to live off the land, to eat things that would make a billy goat puke. In *St. Louis* his job was to dispose of enemy personnel. To kill! Period! Win by attrition. Well, *Steven Jackson* was the best.
Good luck to ya...
I’m starting to get leery of any speed with what we’ve seen so far today.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
It might help the speed...
if it were to rain a little harder before the Derby. Seems like they are expecting it to keep rolling in.
This next race is the last one on the dirt prior to the Derby….it will be a long wait.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
It wasn't wire to wire,
but I’ll take it!
You don't seem to want to accept the fact you're dealing with an expert in guerrilla warfare, with a man who's the best, with guns, with knives, with his bare hands. A man who's been trained to ignore pain, ignore weather, to live off the land, to eat things that would make a billy goat puke. In *St. Louis* his job was to dispose of enemy personnel. To kill! Period! Win by attrition. Well, *Steven Jackson* was the best.
by 3k on May 1, 2010 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Nice work...always good to cash on the derby.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
Hey! The Washington-bred wins!!
Nice to see an Emerald Downs horse take a graded stake….
Borel is the only jock to win on the rail today, and now he’s done it twice.
Just when you think the closers have the edge…a horse goes wire to wire.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
Hey Look...
NBC is once again going to ignore the fact that there will be a horse racing prior to the Derby. But at least we get Al Roker cooking!!!
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
He’s not cooking, he’s just saying ridiculous stuff to two other people that are cooking.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Good point...
and I’m sure he’ll be eating what they cook.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
This is why I love the Breeders' Cup...
ESPN keeps this crap to a minimum, NBC drowns us in it.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
Network TV
at its finest…
You don't seem to want to accept the fact you're dealing with an expert in guerrilla warfare, with a man who's the best, with guns, with knives, with his bare hands. A man who's been trained to ignore pain, ignore weather, to live off the land, to eat things that would make a billy goat puke. In *St. Louis* his job was to dispose of enemy personnel. To kill! Period! Win by attrition. Well, *Steven Jackson* was the best.
by 3k on May 1, 2010 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Woodford Turf Classic...
Like Blues Street in here….also using 3 and 6 to doubles to the Derby
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
Exacta Will Pays
Don’t know if anyone has taken a look yet, but they are large, large, large. The lowest exacta will pay, right now, is 1-20 that will pay $88 for $2.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
No one really
Can’t argue against Super Saver or Backtalk in this mess. My exotics will include 6, 7, 11, 13, 16, 18. Mostly exs and tris
I hear ya...
the odds are all enticing but at this point but I’ll just go with what I’ve liked the last few days and stick with that.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
Best of luck to you!
Your work the last week has been tireless and enjoyable. Thanks for the insight
Thank you, much appreciated.
Good luck to you, as well.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
Yep...I'm going to keep it skinny but go for multiples
2-16 w 1-2-4-16-17…
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
That's enough screwing around...
WIN 12
$ 20.00
WIN 10
$ 30.00
EXX 4,7
$ 10.00
EXX 7,15
$ 20.00
TRX 4,7,16
$ 12.00
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Like it...
I went $40 to win on 16..along with my exacta…Hoping Leparoux can bring it home.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And TwinSpires.com has frozen up...
glad I made my bets 1/2 hours ago.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
Hrm. American Lion doesn’t like the crowd. Wonder what that will do.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
yeah, I flipped ice box and supe saver based on how the track had been playing...
but, that’s the way it goes..
It’s good to see Calvin win again. He really loves the game.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
Ice Box overtook the filly at the line, right?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I mistook Paddy O’Prado for the filly.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
The Romans horse ran big...
one of these year’s he’ll get a Derby
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
Super Saver - Ice Box - Paddy O'Prado
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
Yeah, when he came wide off the turn I thought he'd get there...
so close.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
Lezcano had a horrible ride. Ice Box got jammed on the rail and when he off, he pulled up to get around a horse, then went even wider to find a lane and closed.
If Ice Box runs the Preakness, I’m going to bet Zito find a new man at the reins.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
With that pace he should have got there
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
Thanks for all the comments everyone!
We’ll roll to the Preakness in two weeks….or I’ll be betting Emerald tomorrow afternoon…you know, gotta get even!
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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