2010 Preakness Stakes: Odds
by Matt Gardner on May 11, 2010 7:00 AM EDT
in Triple Crown
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PrintThe official morning line odds for the 2010 Preakness won't be revealed until after the draw on Wednesday, but I've spent the last couple of days working on my own odds line that I'll use for comparison purposes. Below are the potential Preakness starters and their odds on my line.
Super Saver: Might be a little high for him as essentially I've got him at a 25% chance to win....he could make sense at 5/2 and may get revised following the draw and final field selection.
Paddy O'Prado: I suppose the allure of this colt for me is the possibility that he's a much better runner on dirt than the synthetic and turf surfaces that dominated his pre-Derby career. The danger is that he simply just loved the slop. Still, Romans seems to have him in top form right now.
Lookin At Lucky: I'm fairly certain that this colt will be at least the second choice on the board on Saturday afternoon but I've got him third just slightly behind Paddy. He had to do a lot of work just to grab 6th in the Derby and I'm wondering how much that took out of him. If he were to fire a sharp work in the next day or so that would help alleviate some concerns.
Schoolyard Dreams: Given the right trip, I think he's got as good of a chance as a lot of these colts to score an upset. He might represent some good value on the board.
Pleasant Prince: A lot of comparisons are going to be made between this colt and Ice Box due to them finishing a nose apart in the Florida Derby. Ice Box, however, went directly from that race to the Derby while this colt ran in two more races. I'm a little worried about how much he'll have in the tank and I have questions about how much pace he'll get in front of him.
Jackson Bend: He's a gutty horse that usually runs a solid race but I'm not convinced he's at his best in races at 1 1/8 miles or longer.
Dublin: As much as I like this colt I just can't justify him at anything below 15/1. He's a must use in the exotics, however.
Yawanna Twist: I could see this colt running a big race, but I'd want to get some nice, fat odds before I'd place a win bet on him.
First Dude: He's kind of a tweener to me: there are some things to like (decent tactical speed), and some things to be wary of (his performance declined once he stepped up in class).
Caracortado: Surface questions, form questions. .. 30/1 seems about right for this colt.
Aikenite: This might be a little low...I wouldn't quibble with someone that thinks he's more like 40 or 50/1.
Northern Giant: His best races just have been a step below what we've seen from the top end of his rivals. Like any horse, he could win, but he's certainly not likely to do so.
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MattG thanks for the post!
My thoughts are the betting public will bet-down Paddy O’Prado in lieu of Looking at Lucky who will then be a slight overlay.
I am bullish on Caracortado regardless of surface (see Line of David/Ark Derby) and hope he goes off at 30-1! I am bearish on Schoolyard Dreams who you have at 10-1. His best Beyer is way under Super Saver’s last three averaged.
Now, I have two questions:
1-Who cannot win this race?
2-Super Saver, how can he win this? I see a slow pace which is a bad omen for him IMO.
A couple things I've been thinking...
1. I think it’s going to be a very hard race for Northern Giant and Aikenite…just don’t think they are on the same level. Ditto for First Dude, who will probably also be a toss for me. Pleasant Prince is going to see some action due to his race against Ice Box in the Fla Derby but I don’t know if this is a great spot for him. He’s had to do a lot of running over the last month.
2. I have a different take on Super Saver as I think the pace might set up pretty good for him. I think he’s versatile enough to handle slow fractions on the front end. My concern for him is if he’s too keyed up and gets a little anxious early on…they’ve had a lot of success slowing him down but if he won’t relax I think he’s vulnerable.
I think you’re right on Paddy and Caracortado…Paddy is probably going to get a decent amount of play ….and Cara is probably worth a shot if he goes off at big odds given that the pace shouldn’t be insane.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on May 11, 2010 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions
I should add...
I don’t know what to do with Dublin. I ended up using him in the top part of my exotics in the Derby but I’m thinking of taking a stand against him at this point (mark that down cause now he’ll win by daylight!).
What’s your thoughts on him? Is he a must use or a toss for you?
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on May 11, 2010 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions
The pace of the race..
Yeah, I know Super Saver can run on the front end but he’s never done it at this distance -he would get the rail though! He only won on the front end in G2 and Mdn races. Saver made me money on 1May but I don’t feel he’s the winner on Saturday. There are fresher horses who stand to improve.
Logically, it’s hard to bet on Dublin. He’s not won in 7 months though his workout yesterday (4f in 48.2) looks sharp. His Beyers are up there on average but there are also up and down as a trend (up this week!) I read a lot of ’he’s got so much talent’, etc. I just don’t see his will to win.
My throw outs (i.e.,can’t make the superfecta) are currently:
- Northern Giant
- Schoolyard Dreams
- Dublin (maybe)
Then there is Jackson Bend and Looking at Lucky. Why does a guy like Zito send JB to this race? I’m sure it’s not so Zito can go eat crabcakes. Yes, he just posted a bullet workout so he’s not on my throw out list but that’s the only reason why. I want to think Lookin can win this race because I like the horse – I think what he did in the SA Derby was incredible – to come from a near dead stop to third place but I tend to like “improvers” who targeted this race.
I'm starting to question Dublin's ability to go more than a mile...
regardless of his breeding, he’s just not getting it done out there. I agree with you, he doesn’t really seem interested in winning, at least not in the races he’s being placed in right now. This colt could probably use a break and a drop into a softer G3/G2 mile race where he can regain some confidence.
Immediately following the Derby I was pretty sure that Lucky would be at the top of my odds line as I wanted to see him get a shot at a good, clean race. But the jock change and Baffert’s reluctance to confirm him for the Preakness made me a little edgy on him. I still think he’s one of the top contenders given his race record and the relative softness of his rivals, but I’m iffy at this point. I’m very curious as to how the crowd will treat him on Sat.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on May 11, 2010 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions
I just re-watched the Derby a few times and Dublin did make a nice move after 6f but then flattened out. I was also looking at Paddy O’Prado and trying to envision him dual with Super Saver in the mid-stretch. Saver did in Nobels Promise but Paddy went with him albeit too late after the move. Desormeaux has to be in a better position on Sat (remember this was his home track for a long time).
When the Brisnet PP comes out with that LF rating – that will be very helpful.
Brisnet
In the Brisnet PP you get a speed rating at the first call, second call and the Last Furlong. I use the LF as a basic indicator of runners who are trending on finishing better.
The Brisnet pre-Preak PPs
I pulled the Bris PPs the other day and they got the following last call rating for the Derby (link: Bris Preak PPs):
Dublin: 75
Jackson Bend: 53
Lookin At Lucky: 83
Paddy O’Prado: 84
Super Saver: 86
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on May 12, 2010 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Yep, he lived up here in WA for a number of years...
he’s originally from Kentucky.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on May 12, 2010 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions
As Long As Lucky...
is lucky enough to be drawn inside, I think I will give him the nod. Of course, I haven’t really looked at anything yet.
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Baffert Cracks Me Up....
…did you read where he said Lucky should be named" Lookin at Aluminum…" Seriously, if he isn’t in the 1 or 2 whole and Garcia gives him a good trip…I think he might be the best in the field.
By the way, when was the last time a big-time trainer and an elite jock have split the way Baffert and Gomez have?
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
You don't see it very often.
I’m trying to think of the last big trainer/jockey split.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on May 12, 2010 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions
I had my doubts on Pleasant Prince already...
but this quote from owner Ken Ramsey doesn’t exactly inspire a lot of confidence on his chances:
We’re probably not going to win the race. If I was betting, I wouldn’t be going in with both hands," he said. "I try to be realistic. He’s probably not going to be the first, second, third, or fourth choice. He’s running against some very good horses, many of them more accomplished than us.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
Pleasant Prince
You don’t read that every day in the horse racing business. MattG already mentioned that some will look at the Fla Derby and how Ice Box nosed him out and put their money down – but he is not as good as Ice Box.
Had he won that Fla Derby he’d have easily been in the Derby – probably finished in the top half and right now Ice Box would be in the Preakness at 10-1. It’s a game of inches.
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