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2010 Preakness: Wagering Guide

BALTIMORE - MAY 21: Jockey Jeremy Rose celebrates as he crosses the finish line atop Afleet Alex, trainer Timothy Ritchey, to win the 130th Running of the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course on May 21, 2005 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images)

BALTIMORE - MAY 21: Jockey Jeremy Rose celebrates as he crosses the finish line atop Afleet Alex, trainer Timothy Ritchey, to win the 130th Running of the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course on May 21, 2005 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images)

The Kentucky Derby is widely considered one of the best, if not THE best, betting day of the year.  A twenty horse field, the longest distance any of the horses have ever run in their lives, and a mass of 150,000 people creates an atmosphere of the "unexpected".  The Preakness, on the other hand, is a much less hectic affair.  For the horses, trainers, jockeys, and owners, the stakes are no less important.  But for the player, there is certainly a different mindset when trying to make constructing bets for the Preakness as opposed to the Derby.

I've gone through the results charts of the last ten editions of the Preakness and came up with the following chart illustrating the pari-mutual payouts for the various bets offered by Pimlico.

Preak_payouts_medium

The excel file with all of the data from the last ten years (along with the same data for the Kentucky Derby) can be found in this Triple Crown Payouts file.

Some thoughts and points about the data:

  • When compared to the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness has not been a good betting race over the last ten years.  The median $2 Win payout is a weak $7.10 due to the fact that favorites have won 7 of the last 10 races.  A $2 Win bet on the winning horse has paid more than $10 only twice in ten years.
  • One of the worst bets on Preakness day has been the trifecta, which has produced almost as bad of a return as a $2 Win bet.  Exacta payouts have also been low, but it's easier to have an exacta multiple times if you cold punch it.  That tends to not be the case with the tri.

Star-divide

  • A Pick 6 wager ending with the Preakness has only been offered twice in the last ten years and has failed to attract a significant pool or produce a tasty payout either time.
  • The Pick 3 is a very tricky proposition as four times in the last ten years it's failed to pay more than $75 on for a $1 base bet.  The Pick 4 is a little better, but only in comparison to the Pick 3, as it has paid less than $400 for a $1 base bet four times.
  • Favorites have dominated the Preakness over the last ten years: as I wrote above, seven of the last ten winners have won the race, with two more finishing second (Street Sense and Fusaichi Pegasus).  The only favorite that failed to finish in the top 2 was the ill-fated Barbaro.  As much as it stinks to play the chalk, it's tough to toss the favorite in the Preakness if you want to cash a ticket.
  • The highest payouts for a Win, Tri, and Super bet over the last three years all came in the Barbaro year of 2006 when Bernardini won.  But while Bernardini slipped through the mainstream bettors, those that played the Pick 3 and Pick 4s that day had him pegged pretty good as those two wagers only paid $223.10 and $810.40, respectively.  Even though the winners of the previous races affect the payouts, when an odds-on favorite goes down (especially when it's the Derby winner), you'd generally expect to see something a little bigger out of those pools. 
  • The lowest Exacta and Trifecta payouts were in 2007, the year that Curlin edged out Street Sense.  The lowest Pick 3 and Pick 4 payouts came last year when Rachel Alexandra won.
  • Pimlico introduced a Black Eyed Susan/Preakness Daily Double back in 2003; the bet has paid more than $35 only once, when Bernardini won in 2006.

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Preakness exotics...

MattG, more good info. Thanks.

I went back over the weekend and look at this same data but only back 5 years. Consequently I probably won’t be doing a lot of boxing horses or deep tri and superfecta wagering at the risk of losing money.

Two big factors affecting the wagering would be: 1 – How will the betting public perceive Looking at Lucky? [you brought that point up yesterday] and 2 – Is it possible that SS won’t his the board?

Your thoughts?

by Swale on May 12, 2010 7:07 AM EDT reply actions  

I think Super Saver hits the board....

unless he throw in a real clunker…which I think is doubtful.

Lucky….after the crazy Derby betting I really wonder how this race will be bet….I don’t really know where he’ll be, maybe 4/1? That’s just a guess on my part.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

by MattGSeattle on May 12, 2010 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

Thanks For The Info...

…the Preakness, more often than not, seems to go to form. And several times I think the horse that should have won the Derby, bounces back to win the second jewel of the Triple Crown. I think that horse may be Lookin At Lucky. I think you are correct, MattG, that he will be the public’s second-choice behind Super Saver.

The chart points out a couple of things to me: given that the tri has been a poor-paying bet, but the median payout of the exacta is actually about $10 above average. One might be better served to try to hit the exacta multiple times rather than get a $1’s worth of the tri. Also, low payouts in the horizontal wagers indicate that not only is the Preakness formful, but the preceding races seem to be as well. Two viable singles in the Pick 4 mean the play is more than worthwhile, even if the life-changing score isn’t available.

Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.

by JP Fanshawe on May 12, 2010 7:45 AM EDT reply actions  

I with you...

I’ll try to hit the EX multiple times on Saturday…that seems like the best place to get your value.

I hit the super in the Preakness several years ago…of course, it was the second lowest payout year when Curlin won. Typical.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

by MattGSeattle on May 12, 2010 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

Question

How do you appraoch the strategy of ‘hitting the exacta multiple times’?

Can you give me an example if say, you were willing to wager $100 on the race? Is it just a bunch or random $2 exacta bets?

Casually.

by CasualHoya on May 12, 2010 4:56 PM EDT reply actions  

If I was betting $100 on the Preakness..

and I’m centering my bets around an exacta play that I’m trying to hit multiple times I would probably break it down like this:

First I rank my top three…let’s say 1-Super Saver, 2-Schoolyard Dreams, and 3-Lucky, just for an example. Then I’d probably break my bets up this way:

$50 Win: Super Saver
$30 Exacta: Super Saver over Schoolyard Dreams
$20 Exacta: Super Saver over Lucky

So when I say multiple times what I mean is that my above bets would pay multiple of the $2 EX if they were to hit…the SS/SD would pay 15x and the SS/Lucky 10×. Instead of just betting a lot of different $2 exactas I am trying to hit one (or two) $20 or $30 exactas. If I think an exacta will pay a lot I’ll just play a $2 bet, but if I think it might pay a little light (like the Preakness has recently) but it also seems to be a very likely result (a couple of low odds horses), I’ll try to hit it in multiples.

This strategy works decently with Daily Doubles, as well.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

by MattGSeattle on May 12, 2010 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

I should add...

Steve Davidowitz has a great discussion of these types of plays in his book Betting Thoroughbreds. The way I approached constructing my bets changed dramatically after reading the original edition of that book.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

by MattGSeattle on May 12, 2010 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

I Think All Good Handicappers...

…come to live, eventually, by the following statement, originally crafted by Brad Free…“be bold, or be wrong.” Once you internalize this maxim, you will find that you wager less, and, when you win, it is all worthwhile…

Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.

by JP Fanshawe on May 12, 2010 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

And...

…great pic, MattG…I LOVE Afleet Alex. I think he was one of those should-have-been TC winners. And, if you remember, he clipped heels at the top of the stretch due to Dominguez’s reckless ride and nearly went down. His ability to recover in that moment makes him one of my all-time favorites, and even now I favor his progeny…and I still dislike Dominguez a little bit because of that race, and I am still waiting for Jeremy Rose to supplant Gary Stevens in my pantheon of jockeys I take without a thought.

Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.

by JP Fanshawe on May 12, 2010 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

To Me, There Are Two Ways To Approach "Multiple Hits" Of The Exacta...

Some would go this way…

AB with ABCD, which on a dollar base, you might play, say, five times. Each wager costs $6 times the number of times you play it, so, in this instance, $30. You hit it twice, if your two keys come home 1, 2. I prefer this strategy: A with BCDE times four, and BCDE with A times three. The A horse must be 5-1 or longer, and your second tier horses should not include the favorite. If the favorite appears so strong that he won’t win or finish second, pass on the bet…I have had great success with just this strategy. The ability to hone the discipline NOT to bet a race has made all the difference to me….

Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.

by JP Fanshawe on May 12, 2010 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

"appears so strong that WILL win, or finish second, pass on the bet...."

…what I meant to type. I really should proof more before I post!

Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.

by JP Fanshawe on May 13, 2010 8:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

Good strategy...

I like that you demand the odds on your A horse. That’s not something that I usually do in exactas but it makes a lot of sense.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

by MattGSeattle on May 13, 2010 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions  

Agree 100%

So true.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

by MattGSeattle on May 13, 2010 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions  


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