Pictured above, Sweet Goodbye with jockey JD Acosta aboard, my key horse for leg 1 of the Pick 3, races 11-13, on Black-Eyed Susan Day.
Ticket 1: 2 with 1,4,5,6 with 1,2,5,11
Ticket 2: 2,6,8,9 with 4 with 1,2,5,11
Ticket 3: 2,6,8,9 with 1,4,5,6 with 11
It's a tough little sequence. I had difficulty narrowing down to just four horses in all three races. Thoughts?
about 2 years ago
JP Fanshawe
2 comments
0 recs |
Comments
That first leg is a killer for me...
Can’t disagree with the 2-6-8-9 in the first leg. I do like the 10 a little bit in this spot. I’m throwing out that brutal trip on the ProRide at SA in her last race. Without that debacle, I think she fits in this group nicely.
In race 12 i’m wondering if there might be enough speed to give the 2 something decent to run at? I don’t love Kent D. but he knows Pimlico.
What’s your angle on the 2 in the last leg? Are you thinking she might be the controlling speed with the stretch-out on the lawn? That’s a nice long shot play.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
Looked Hard...
…at the 10 in race 11, but three months on the shelf, and and Fenneka Bentley is only 12 percent at 90+ days away, so Rate of Exchange was one of the last to get winnowed. You are right, though…the three races prior to her last were all speed figures that could win this race.
In race 12, BRIS’s summary shows an 80 percent speed bias, so frontrunners have done well at 9 furlongs or longer so far. Granted, that is from a sample of only 5 races, so I think Tidal Pool might be sitting in a pretty spot. I am trying to beat her though. It was tough for me between the 4 and the 5 for key-horse status. I wound up on the 4, Acting Happy, even though she isn’t in the top 5 of any of the categories I look at, math-wise. But she flashed speed for Richard Dutrow in her last out, moving from 7th to 2nd, and now he moves her up into a G1 stakes company? That seems like a solid hint to me. The other horses were the three highest in class, and I had a tough time eliminating the 9, Diva Delite. I fear her, if for no other reason, she’s never been off the board.
In the last, a few things point me toward including the 2. First, she is owned by her trainer, and I always pay attention to any trainer that puts one of his/her own in any stakes race. They don’t do it to get the horse a start. They usually do it because they think the horse has a shot at some dollars. Added to that, the horse won last out at a much lower level, and does have a work last week. And finally, even though she doesn’t really fit on class, she has the best late pace figure average in this field. All that talk about the 2, but my top choice is the 11, who is way classy for this field and I think will win from the front-end…
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.











