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Preakness Day - Open Thread

BALTIMORE - MAY 14:  Super Saver is bathed after morning excersise in preparation for the 135th Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course on May 14, 2010 in Baltimore, Maryland.  (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)

Preakness Day has arrived! 

A few housekeeping items this morning:

-You can find all the changes for the Pimlico card over at their official site.

-It looks like Pimlico is going to luck out with decent weather today; the forecast calls for sunny skies with only a 15% chance of rain.  Let's hope that Joe Weatherman is right.

-I know there are a lot of new eyes at the site this week, so if you are new to the sport of horse racing and looking to get in on the Preakness betting action, (and, of course, you live in a state that allows advance deposit wagering), you can wager through any number of licensed on-line sites, including our new SB Nation partner, Youbet.com.

-Unfortunately, the Preakness under card will not be available on ESPN today (like the Derby under card was two weeks ago).  If you get ESPN3 through your internet provider, you can watch it there.  Otherwise you'll need HRTV (available on Dish and some cable outlets) or a live video stream through an ADW.  

This is a sad turn of events for the sport as ESPN used to show the entire Preakness under card, as well as a showing several races from Black-Eyed Susan day the Friday before.  But apparently the national cheerleading championships are a better event for them to show...I'm sure it costs a lot less to produce.

-I'll have the results for all of the Preakness under card races at the bottom of this post, including all of the pari-mutuel payouts.

Grade 1 Preakness Stakes
Pimlico Race Course
1 3/16 miles
Three year olds
Purse: $1,000,000
Post time: 6:12 Eastern / 3:12 Pacific

Preakness_field_medium

Turning to the Preakness under card, the Grade 2 Dixie looks like a race where we could have a vulnerable favoritie in the 4-Just as Well (3/1).  This horse just missed winning this race last year and he rattled off three very nice performances during the summer of 2009, but he's been off form for a while now.  His last start came during the Keeneland spring meet where he finished a lackluster fourth in the Grade 3 Ben Ali.  That was his first race since trying the Group 1 Japan Cup in late November.  Seems like a good time to try and beat this one.

Star-divide

Christophe Clement's Grassy (5/1) will be making only his sixth lifetime start after .  He finished fourth beaten only by a length and a half in the Grade 1 Jamaica Handicap at Belmont last fall, so he's flashed some decent talent in his short race career.  The pace might be a little slower than he'd like in this race but I think he could be sitting on a big effort today.

The ninth race Grade 3 Gallorette Handicap will feature a heavy favorite in 4-Rainbow View (Even), a former Group 1 winner in France in 2009.  An interesting upset possibility is the 3-Ave (GB) (5/1), a first time North American starter under the training of Roger Attfield.  This filly was a cut below the favorite over in Europe but sometimes it's best to try and catch these runners their first time off the plane.  The layoff is a little concerning but if Ave drifts up on the tote board like I expect her to, she could be worth a look.    

For the Preakness I'm going to key Super Saver on top of my exactas with probably Schoolyard Dreams and Paddy O'Prado on the bottom....I might toss Yawanna Twist into the mix, as well.  I'm also going to key Super Saver with Grassy in a Dixie/Preakness Daily Double.  I'm not going to decide on any Preakness win bets until the odds board is stabilized and we have a good idea what kind of value we are being offered.

#

Winner

Win

$2 Ex

$2 Tri

$1 Super

$2 DD

$2 P3

$2 P4

1

Primary Witness

$8.20

$32.60

$329.00

$523.20

2

Virsito

$14.00

$35.60

$435.40

$1,511.10

$77.40

3

Convey Ahead

$6.20

$58.60

$307.20

$2,423.40

$52.40

4

Northpoint Costas

$4.80

$65.80

$526.00

$2,208.30

$15.00

$152.60

5

Lighthouse Sound

$9.40

$73.40

$1,491.40

$3,758.90

$29.20

$129.00

6

Comedero

$3.40

$25.00

$50.20

$117.10

$19.00

$57.20

7

Beau Choix

$6.80

$29.40

$103.80

$103.90

$11.60

$70.00

8

Blame

$4.40

$67.20

$517.20

$1,233.00

$18.00

$28.20

$174.40

9

Rainbow View

$3.80

$25.60

$104.80

$147.90

$8.20

$35.40

10

Taqarub

$28.60

$252.40

$1,794.80

$12,065.30

$94.40

$164.20

11

Strike a Deal

$30.20

$131.20

$831.20

$4,469.50

$424.80

$1,112.40

12

Lookin at Lucky

$6.80

$188.60

$2,771.00

$17,126.00

$117.20

$1,643.60

$3,594.80

13

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Race 1

Julien Leparoux bounces back from that spill in yesterday’s Black-Eyed Susan and picks up the win on 4-Kurbat (Chi) in today’s first race.

Looks like an objection, however.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

by Matt Gardner on May 15, 2010 10:52 AM EDT reply actions  

Check that...

Kurbat was second…Primary Witness got the win and survives the objection.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

by Matt Gardner on May 15, 2010 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

Race 2

Virsito and Dominguez score at 6/1 on the lawn. The early DD pays a nice $77.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

by Matt Gardner on May 15, 2010 11:38 AM EDT reply actions  

Race 3

4-Convoy Ahead scores a fairly easy win going 6f on the main track at 2/1.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

by Matt Gardner on May 15, 2010 12:07 PM EDT reply actions  

Race 4...

last race before the early Pick 4 kicks off in Race 5.

Maryland bred starter handicap…eh, this could be a 10k claiming race, actually, it could be 7.5k claiming race. so-so form on a lot of these animals.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

by Matt Gardner on May 15, 2010 12:10 PM EDT reply actions  

Wire to wire for Northpoint Costas...

They went six furlongs in 1:13.65…not exactly lighting it up on the front end.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

by Matt Gardner on May 15, 2010 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Tough to get a read on the track with these early races...

Need to see some stakes quality horses run to gauge how effective speed might be today. 7.5k starter handicaps with a horse leading through slow fractions doesn’t tell me anything.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

by Matt Gardner on May 15, 2010 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Race 5

9-Work for a Cure sits at a nice 11/1. Hasn’t done much lately but should like switching back to routing on the lawn. Leparoux is up.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

by Matt Gardner on May 15, 2010 12:53 PM EDT reply actions  

A nice 20/1 on Hold Your Money...

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

by Matt Gardner on May 15, 2010 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Assamakoffolis

I AM SOMETIMES BIASED - Get over it!!!!!!!

by ViolentMike on May 15, 2010 12:58 PM EDT reply actions  

Dominguez with his second on the card...

Nice run by the 13-Lighthouse Sound.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

by Matt Gardner on May 15, 2010 1:01 PM EDT reply actions  

Race 6 in 27

Comedero is going to get hammered in this race after winning 6 or 7. Perhaps the Baffert horse, Quiet Invader, can spring a mild upset at 3/1

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

by Matt Gardner on May 15, 2010 1:11 PM EDT reply actions  

The 6th race is delayed due to Ken's Cape being late to the track...

haven’t seen that before.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

by Matt Gardner on May 15, 2010 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Comedera runs them into the ground...

Quiet Invader got the trip but didn’t have the legs to run down the 3/5 favorite. A nice race from the Arkansas bred.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

by Matt Gardner on May 15, 2010 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

"Comedero"...I should at least spell his name right

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

by Matt Gardner on May 15, 2010 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

I like Kera's Kitten a little bit...

I think this distance suits him nicely after a couple of tough races last time out.

And I think Ponzi Scheme has a shot with the scratch of the some of the other speed horses in here. Should lighten up the pace a bit for him. 15/1 is nice, too.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

by Matt Gardner on May 15, 2010 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

This race appears to be pretty competitive...

a bunch look to have a good shot at the win.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

by Matt Gardner on May 15, 2010 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Top 2 so far.........

I AM SOMETIMES BIASED - Get over it!!!!!!!

by ViolentMike on May 15, 2010 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Taking a shot with Kera's Kitten in this spot at 5/1

If Leparoux can get him placed well early on he should be in good position coming into the stretch.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

by Matt Gardner on May 15, 2010 2:14 PM EDT reply actions  

wow....a little quick on the front end...

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

by Matt Gardner on May 15, 2010 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Went way too fast early on...

that got ugly. Thought they would slow it down a bit on the front end.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

by Matt Gardner on May 15, 2010 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

I can't pick a winner today....... Two weeks ago I was on fire.

Super Saver/Paddy/Schoolyard Dreams Exacta and then the same with 2nd and 3rd swapped out.

I AM SOMETIMES BIASED - Get over it!!!!!!!

by ViolentMike on May 15, 2010 2:25 PM EDT reply actions  

It's a cruel game...

Pimlico is not a track that I ever have much success at. I do okay on the Preakness itself, but the under card seems to always kick my butt. Of course, that doesn’t stop me from playing it every year.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

by Matt Gardner on May 15, 2010 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

The payouts are really thin these last few races...

The last two Pick 3s paid less than $100. In the last race the $2 tri paid 103.80 and the $1 super paid 103.90. Really, really light payouts.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

by Matt Gardner on May 15, 2010 2:34 PM EDT reply actions  

Race 8

The crowd seems to have this one pegged pretty good with Blame at 7/5. If he’s going to get beat it’s going to be off the layoff like today. I like Bullsbay a little bit but I don’t know that a closer is they way you want to go at Pimlico.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

by Matt Gardner on May 15, 2010 2:44 PM EDT reply actions  

Chalk city...

The Pick 3s and Pick 4s are going to continue to be brutal today.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

by Matt Gardner on May 15, 2010 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Pick 4 kicks off with race 9 in approx. 20 minutes

Rainbow View the strong favorite in the first leg at 8/5.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

by Matt Gardner on May 15, 2010 3:26 PM EDT reply actions  

Rainbow View

scores at 4/5. Just simply a much classier horses than the rest.

I’m alive after the first leg of the pick four…but with the heavy chalk.

Five deep to the 1-5-7-9-11 in the second leg, race 10.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

by Matt Gardner on May 15, 2010 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

wow....one of those days....

five deep and the freaking 8 goes wire to wire at 13/1.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

by Matt Gardner on May 15, 2010 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

26 MTP for the 11th, Dixie Stakes

Grassy the luke warm 7/2 fav.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

by Matt Gardner on May 15, 2010 4:46 PM EDT reply actions  

Of course, NBC would have to acknowledge there is a freaking race on for that to happen...

just brutal coverage once again by NBC. Just brutal.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

by Matt Gardner on May 15, 2010 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

57 MTP for the Preakness

If NBC can pull away from their heart touching stories and hard hitting interviews to actually show a horse race.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

by Matt Gardner on May 15, 2010 5:23 PM EDT reply actions  

Current Odds

1-Aikentie (35/1)
2-Schoolyard Dreams (14/1)
3-Pleasant Prince (23/1)
4-Northern Giant (25/1)
5-Yawanna Twist (15/1)
6-Jackson Bend(11/1)
7-Lookin At Lucky (5/2)
8-Super Saver (9/5)
9-Caracortado (18/1)
10-Paddy O’Prado (8/1)
11-First Dude (25/1)
12-Dublin (9/1)

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

by Matt Gardner on May 15, 2010 5:33 PM EDT reply actions  

Both Lucky and Super Saver now 2/1

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

by Matt Gardner on May 15, 2010 6:09 PM EDT reply actions  

That's where I'm at, too.

except no tris.

good luck.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

by Matt Gardner on May 15, 2010 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Lookin At Lucky...

over Jackson Bend and First Dude.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

by Matt Gardner on May 15, 2010 6:22 PM EDT reply actions  

check that First Dude is 2nd, Jackson Bend 3rd.

Super Saver faded at the top of the stretch to finish out of the money.

2/1 on Lucky.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

by Matt Gardner on May 15, 2010 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

That was some race!!

Love Jackson Bend and First Dude’s effort. They’re both improving nicely.

by bones_boy on May 15, 2010 6:25 PM EDT reply actions  

I thought JB was going to get there.

Nice ride by Garcia on Lucky. He got it done.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

by Matt Gardner on May 15, 2010 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

First Dude ran a huge race

Super Saver backed up off that pace but First Dude held on gamely. Huge race from the Romans horse.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

by Matt Gardner on May 15, 2010 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

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