Possible Preakness Runners
by Matt Gardner on May 3, 2010 7:00 AM EDT
in Triple Crown
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The Daily Racing Form had an article yesterday listing out the possible runners for The Preakness on May 14th. Of the horses that ran in the Derby, the DRF speculates that six may enter at Pimlico in two weeks.
Dublin - D. Wayne Lukas
Ice Box - Nick Zito
Jackson Bend - Nick Zito
Lookin At Lucky - Bob Baffert
Paddy O Prado - Dale Romans
Super Saver - Todd Pletcher
Super Saver, Ice Box, and Paddy O'Prado make sense given how they ran on Saturday. Lookin At Lucky should get a better trip in The Preakness just by showing up. Jackson Bend is probably better suited to a race with a smaller field and a little less pace, and D. Wayne Lukas is going to keep firing with Dublin, who you'd think at some point could put it all together.
Other Derby horses that would seem to make sense for a try at Pimlico would be Discreetly Mine and/or Mission Impazible, since they would probably benefit from a less hectic race/pace scenario. Maybe American Lion is worth a shot, as well.
Sidney's Candy backed up so bad that you really got to question either the dirt or the distance for him. It could have been the slop but everybody has that excuse. Likewise Line of David.
I suppose Awesome Act's connections could also reason that he'd do better on a dry track, but when you get beat by that much it's probably best to take a little break and find a softer spot to regain some confidence.
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Preakness Field
I saw that article too. All of it generally makes sense to me. They had other horses mentoined: Pleasant Prince, Hurricane Ike and A Little Warm to name a few.
It will be a different day, a different track and a different race. Looking at Lucky could be an overlay depending on how the hype goes with the top three finishers.
Matt ~ never sure you posted where your money went on Sat. SS and Ice Box put some money in my pocket!
Originally I was going with Awesome Act and Super Saver on top
over Ice Box and a host of others. I ended up flipping SS and Ice Box, much to my chagrin, as I liked Ice Box’s odds better
To be honest, my Derby day took a bath the second that General Quarters won the Woodford, cause that killed pretty much everything I had going (although my Pick 4 died an earlier death a race before.) Most of my betting is usually in the P4, P3, and DD pools on Derby day, and this one wasn’t a year where I got anywhere with those bets.
This year’s Derby is a textbook example of why I should just write down my picks the night before and bet them the second the windows open on Saturday cause by the time the Derby rolled around (and you’ve put down a mint julep or two) it’s not the best time to be fine tuning your wagering strategy.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on May 3, 2010 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions
My Two Keys...
were originally Ice Box and Mission Impazible. I swapped MI for Awesome Act…who managed to finish 19th beaten 60 lengths. So much for wet/off pedigree, huh. I wish I had listened to you more about Super Saver. I really thought that the pace scenario would rule him out as a winner of the race.
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
I'll be honest...
the weakest part of my game is switching off a horse I like the night before. I’ve probably improved the most in that area the last couple of years with my day-to-day handicapping, but on big days it sometimes is hard to stay focused with so much else going on. If I had a nickel for every time my fiancée said to me, “why didn’t you bet that horse, you liked him the best last night”…I’d have a lot of nickels.
Awesome Act…don’t know what happened there but I figure in the Derby there is always going to be at least one or two horses that you like that won’t run a lick for one reason or another.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on May 3, 2010 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Lookin At Lucky
I think he’ll get bet pretty hard at Pimlico…Ice Box, too. It will interesting to see how the mob treats Lucky assuming he gets a decent draw. Even though Super Saver will be the favorite, I don’t think he’ll be a heavy one.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
What if Lookin at Lucky draws #1 or #2? Does he becomes the third choice? At the Preakness I believe there is a 14 horse field limit.
I could see some increased value in Looking at Lucky in the #1 or #2 post at the Preakness with a dry fast track and only 14 horses.
I think he'd probably be third choice...
but I don’t know how great of the 3rd choice he’ll be in terms of what the odds will be, even with the 1 or 2 hole. I could see the crowd pounding Super Saver, Ice Box, and Lucky…and maybe Paddy, and then all the others going off at big odds. I would be shocked if we see anything like we saw in the Derby where the longest shot on the board is only in the mid-20s or 30s. Just a gut feeling I’ve got, could be wrong.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
I agree with your thoughts and you might summarize it in this way: “the betting public is biased to who they know”. Any true overlay will be coming from non-Derby starters such as Hurricane Ike, Pleasant Prince (I like him a month ago but now he seems run down) and A Little Warm.
A Little Warm ran a nice race last time out in the LA Derby.
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