2010 Royal Ascot: Day 2
by Matt Gardner on Jun 15, 2010 11:35 PM EDT
in International Racing
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|
Post |
Race |
Condition |
Dist. |
Purse |
|
2:30 |
Group 3 Jersey Stakes |
3yo |
7.0 |
£ 80,000 |
|
3:05 |
Group 2 Windsor Forest Stakes |
4up, Fillies |
8.0 |
£ 125,000 |
|
3:50 |
Group 1 Prince of Wales's Stakes |
4up |
10.0 |
£ 450,000 |
|
4:25 |
Royal Hunt Cup |
3up |
8.0 |
£ 100,000 |
|
5:00 |
Group 2 Queen Mary Stakes |
2yo, Fillies |
5.0 |
£ 90,000 |
|
5:35 |
Sandringham Stakes |
3yo, Fillies |
8.0 |
£ 50,000 |
You can find a a complete list of the races and runners for the second day of Royal Ascot at Timeform. Brisnet.com and TwinSpires.com also have free basic past performances, although they do not contain any Timeform or Racing Post Ratings.
Group 1 Prince of Wales's Stakes
Only one Group 1 race on the card for day 2, but it's a big one: the Prince of Wales's Stakes at a mile and a quarter.
Twice Over (GB) ran a strong third to Zenyatta in the Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita but did little to inspire much confidence with a disappointing 10th of 14 in the Dubai World Cup. He's been a solid runner on grass his entire career so it's not a stretch to think that he's going to enjoy making the switch from running over an all-weather surface.
Byword (GB) finished only a ½ length behind Goldikova (IRE) in the Group 1 Prix d'Ispahan at Longchamp last time out; the next closest horse was 10 lengths behind. That result certainly proves his class and puts him as a legitimate horse for top honors in this race. Perhaps the only chink in the armor is the fact that he's seems to be at his best at a mile and an eighth rather than a mile and a quarter. It's not a huge difference in ground, and it's possible his class will overcome the extra furlong, but it is something to consider as his only win at this distance was in a listed stake at Compiegne against only three other horses.
Shalanaya (IRE) came up a bit short in the Group 1 Prix Ganay at Longchamp in early May, but she's a solid filly that is tried and true at this distance. For the most part, she's run well over yielding, good, and soft ground, but performed at her worst on the firm turf in Kyoto, Japan. Betfair's betting forecast lists her as the probable fourth choice in the field while Timeform rates her as third best behind Byword and Twice Over. She could be the value play in the field.
4:25 Royal Hunt Cup
There are 30 horses going a mile...good luck trying to figure this one out. And we think handicapping the Kentucky Derby is hard!
Timeform likes Mull Of Killough (IRE) in this race. That's good enough for me.
If anybody has some insights as to how you handicap a race with 30 horses, I'd love to hear about it. From what I understand, these are pretty popular betting races in Europe for the simple fact that the huge field creates an opportunity to cash huge tickets. If you're really lucky you can win a s*^t load of money!
5:00 Group 2 Queen Mary
While it's not quite the mess that the Royal Hunt Club is, the Queen Mary is another tough race to decipher. Eighteen two year old fillies will spring five furlongs in search of Royal Ascot glory.
Dress Up is coming off a couple of nice performances at Chester and Royal Windsor but will be facing a stern class test in this spot.
Meow (IRE) blew the doors off of her seven competitors in her maiden breaking win at Tipperary on May 20th and is tabbed by Timeform as the top runner in this field. I love the pedigree on this filly - sired by Storm Cat out of an Air Express mare.
Any James Bond fans out there will probably like Ladies Are Forever (GB), a filly sired by Monsieur Bond out of the dam Forever Bond. You can never have too much Bond.
5:35 Sandringham Handicap
Handicaps in Europe are a completely different breed than those in North America for the simple fact that they actually assign weight in Europe, as opposed to the U.S. where we simply pretend to assign weight. How else can you explain the fact that Rachel Alexandra was asked to "carry" 124 pounds in the Fleur de Lis last Saturday. 124 for Rachel? It's ridiculous to think that assigning Rachel to carry two pounds less than what horses in the Triple Crown carry is some kind of handicap. The 129 for Zenyatta was a little bit better but if we are talking about a real handicap then both horses should have been at 130+.
For a quick snap-shot at the type of weight regularly assigned in Europe, check out the weight to be carried by the field in tomorrow's Sandringham at Royal Ascot:
Lolly For Dolly - 133 lbs.
Blue Maiden - 131
Timepiece - 131
Pollenator - 131
Marie De Medici - 128
Song Of My Heart - 128
Siyaadah - 128
Berg Bahn - 126
Sweet Sonnet - 126
Kinky Afro - 125
Mudaaraah - 125
Za Za Zoom - 122
Safina - 122
Miss Zooter - 119
Clairvoyance - 119
Miss Mittagong - 119
Dubai Media - 119
Well over half the field will carry more than Rachel carried in the Fluer de Lis and the top 4 will all carry at least two pounds more than Zenyatta carried in the Vanity. The separation from the top and low weight horses in the Sandringham is 14 pounds, with the low weight horses in this race carrying six more pounds than the low weight in the Fleur de Lis and seven more than the low weight in the Vanity.
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Weights
You know, I’m not sure when we in North America started being so easy on our horses. Back in the day we also would really “handicap” the favorites too, but somewhere along the line that practice seems to have disappeared. I recall reading about champions of yesteryear carrying nearly 140lbs
I don’t really think weights really make that much of a difference unless the gap is 15 pounds or more between horses.
I know...somewhere it just faded away...
now it seems like the handicap is on the low end where racing secretaries think that they are evening things up by have the long shots on the board carry 113 or so. Not sure that accomplishes the task.
I have no problem just going with weight for age at this point. If we’re going to run handicaps, then run real handicaps with real weight. I’ll give the Vanity a little bit of credit, there was a pretty big difference from Zenyatta (129) to the two low weights (112).
I wonder how many races John Henry would have won if they assigned weight like they do now?
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jun 16, 2010 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions
I wonder ....
If it has to do with fear of a PETA public relations war if a horse that had 140lbs or so broke down.
Thanks for the link. Great information.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jun 16, 2010 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions
You can never be sure until after the Hunt Cup has been run
There is normally a track bias at Ascot – and this year it appears to be (as was presumed from the going stick reports ) in favour of the far side. Admittedly most of the pace was over there, but the first four all drawn 22 or higher.
Track bias
I’ve always wondered about the bias on courses in Europe. On our dirt courses, the bias tends to be related to the way the dirt is packed at the rail, etc. Is the situation similar at a course like Ascot? Is the ground harder/faster along the far side or are there other factors that contribute to the bias?
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jun 16, 2010 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions
To be fair to Ascot (and particularly for the Royal meeting)
They have some of the best ground staff in the country and the track is like a carpet at the start of the week. But despite their best efforts – by the end of the week there always seems to be one side more favoured than the other (and very occasionally down the middle is deemed to be fastest)
The last few years the stand/near side rail has been the best place to be at the Royal meeting. Seems like this year it’s the far side.
Only really comes into play in the big field handicaps (Hunt Cup, Britannia, Buckingham Palace, Wokingham) as for other races the stalls are in the centre of the track to eliminate this as far as possible and to let the jockeys decide
(This is just a guess but in the last two furlongs the shade from the stands mean that the far side will have see more of the good weather each day in the run up to the meeting and is probably a touch quicker. And our weather recently has meant watering of the course not hugely necessary in the run up to the meeting)
Bizarrely this may all change if they water the ground overnight – as traditionally it is thought this favours the stand side. A check of the on site reports tomorrow morning at the RPost website normally best advised a usually the Clerk of the Course will have detailed what they have been up to overnight.
Excellent information
Thanks!
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jun 16, 2010 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Replay of the Group 1 from BBC
No idea if geo-restricted – doesn’t say it is (and the BBC do usually state if it is) so here’s hoping
and if that doesn't work
This you tube channel has the group races from yesterday and the PoW stakes (and presumably more to follow).
One more that may be of interest
I have no idea if you get TV coverage in the US. But this is a VLC address that will get you BBC2 UK – coverage of Royal Ascot first five races each day – 2pm to 5.15 pm UK time Thur and Fri, and 2.20pm – 4.45pm Sat (-5hrs east coast, -8hrs west coast)
TV
We actually do get good coverage of Royal Ascot as both of the U.S. horse racing networks (TVG and HRTV) are showing all five days of the meet, which is really nice.
Most of the time we get coverage for the Guineas, Derby, and Royal Ascot, and I seem to remember coverage of Goodwood, as well. After that it gets a little thin…there is usually some Arc coverage but it’s generally pretty poor (I believe last year’s Arc coverage on HRTV was essentially Longchamps internet feed).
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jun 16, 2010 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Having read your next next post re the results
And your remarks re the spectacle that is the Hunt Cup, it was obvious the races were on your TV! :)
If you liked the Hunt Cup – just wait for Wokingham on Saturday. 6f sprinters, 30 wide, going flat out, in three groups (far, middle, near) – a fabulous sight. (Stewards Cup at Goodwood the same). Finding the winner is just an added bonus.
30 going 6f?
That has to be a sight. Looking forward to it.
How key is early position in a race like that? Over here, with everything run around a turn, breaking poorly or getting stuck behind a wall of horses early is pretty much the kiss of death. I’m guessing that running on the straight, and on what seems to be a pretty wide course, that horses are more likely to overcome early problems?
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jun 16, 2010 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Of all the straight course big runner races
The Wokingham is the least (but still) affected by any track bias, much more important to have some sound pace around you early on.
Your assumptions are correct. Unless drawn very low or very high – and the field moves to your rail the straight course is wide enough that usually most horses that are good enough get the chance of a run at the line for the reasons you state.
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