Just For Fun - An Eight-Race Belmont Day Contest

I was going to wait for the scratches, but they aren’t up yet, and I have honey-do’s to do. So here goes:

Bel 4: Entry 1 = 3-Trappe Shot,
Entry 2 = 7- Ricoriatoa

When it comes to mandatory races in a handicapping contest, I find there is a conundrum. Contests force you to play for value, so I rarely even consider a horse under 5-1. However, what if the favorite, or a low-price horse just looks unbeatable? When everyone is forced to play the same races, isn’t it wiser to just pocket the $10 the low price offers than to try to best that with a long-shot place horse? Hence, one of my picks is the 3-Trappe Shot. He is tops in BRIS Prime Power, winner of his last two by 22 lengths, and runs for a hot trainer and jockey. My Entry 2 choice, 7-Ricoriatoa, is a track and distance specialist who has been running at the end in his last six races.

Bel 5: Entry 1 = 1-Solvent
Entry 2 = 1-Solvent

Another thing I rarely do in contests is play the same horse in a race, especially in a mandatory. There are other horses in here that scare me, but at 6-1, the 1-Solvent represents good value. Owned and trained by George Weaver, he is dropping a class level and stretching out. He is second off the layoff , gets Castellano, and has the best average turf speed figure in the bunch.

Bel 6: Entry 1 = 5-D’Funnybone
Entry 2 = 4-Thank U Phillippe

In 7-furlong races, I usually look for horses that have had previous success at this odd distance. I figure Eightyfiveandafifty will take a lot of play here and go off at even money or below. My Entry 1 choice is D’Funnybone on the strength of 3-for-3 at the distance, 1-for-1 at the track, and Rick Dutrow is 29 percent when moving a horse from route to sprint. Entry 2, 4-Thank U Phillippe, is a value play at 6-1. He, too, has won at this distance, going 2-for-2. Martin Wolfson is 32 percent off the shelf, and 27 percent when shipping a horse in. Also, the shape of the race is fast, and Thank U Phillippe has the highest closing speed figure of these. I do wish he had a bullet work, though…

Bel 7: Entry 1 = 3-Phola
Entry 2 = 3-Phola

Another small field. Again…why try to beat the horse you think is most likely to win if everyone is playing the same race? Take what’s available and move on. The 3-Phola has a 10-point edge in BRIS Prime Power, which means it is a 55 percent chance she will win. She may be improving, as Pletcher keeps moving her up the class ladder and she keeps winning. I worry about a bounce for her career-high speed fig last out.

Bel 8: Entry 1 = 2-Custom For Carlos
Entry 2 = 3-Bribon

Ok, is anyone else starting to think that this isn’t the greatest sequence of races for a contest. Looking pretty chalky. The 2-Custom For Carlos, has the top average speed figure in early, middle, and late pace, and has the top speed fig average overall. Those are the kinds of numbers that, were I playing a Pick 3 or Pick 4, would indicate solid single. So I won’t try to beat them here. The only drawback might be that he hasn’t raced in 57 days, but back-to-back sharp works ease my mind in that regard. Entry 2 choice, Bribon, is right on Carlos’ tail, pace numbers-wise, and he has a lot of class by dollars-earned. Talk about you ice-cold exacta. At least the field is full, so maybe some value can be had. I sort of like the 9-Fantasy Free and the 7-Elusive Warning. Too bad I didn’t give myself three entries!

Bel 9: Entry 1 = 9-Buckleupbuttercup
Entry 2 = 5-Streaker

Finally, a race that presents value. A very fast pace, ensured by the presence of three burners and one of them, the 10-Tidal Pool is the favorite. The contest situation I love best. My first choice is a numbers bet: Pace fast, favorite involved, key the best late pace speed figure, in this case, the 9-Buckleupbuttercup. I also like that she has never been unplaced and won by daylight in her last. Entry 2 gets 5-Streaker, a Phipps/McGaughey connection, undefeated in three starts and now stepping right into a Grade 1. Also, the fifth best closer in the field, which doesn’t sound sexy but means she will be running late and may pick up the pieces.

Bel 10: Entry 1 = 9-Just As Well
Entry 2 = Strike A Deal

Gio Ponti may just be much-the-best in here, but it’s worth it to try to beat him. Court Vision and Take The Points are also both proven. I am shocked by the familiarity of the names of the horses in this one. I didn’t even know that Grand Courturier was still running! He certainly has a shot in here, but I am going elsewhere. 9-Just As Well has the best closing figure, and it is a full six points higher than the second-best closer, so he will be running at the end, so long as Desormeaux doesn’t decide to make his move too early. Entry 2 is 2-Strike A Deal on the strength of three place finishes at this distance in four starts. Maybe a hanger, but maybe about to break through. If I had a third entry it would be between 4-Winchester and 3-Pinckney Hill, both of whom I think could win.

Bel 11 Entry 1 = 7-Drosselmeyer
Entry 2 = 2-Spangled Star

The Test of the Leftovers, as Shadowfax295 called it on another board. Perhaps a fitting description, but a race I think that could go to anyone in here, which means potential box car payoffs. The horse I will be keying is 5-Fly Down, but I am not going to take him in the contest because I think better value might be had. 7-Drosselmeyer is sneaky good and is getting overlooked at 12-1. He really isn’t in any of the early pace numbers, which concerns me since the race doesn’t look like it has a lot of pace, but is 4th in closing figure, and 5th in BRIS Class – two columns I pay particular attention to in marathons. Also, he is 3rd in Tomlinson Rating by distance and he is the only horse to run within four points of the BRIS race par in his career. Entry 2 is a bomb, the 2-Spangled Star. He is a presser, who somehow ranks 4th in both early and middle pace. That might be a testament to the lack of pace in the race, but also might mean that he can sit just off the lead and have enough to be there at the end. He also tops the Tomlinson for Distance numbers by a full 34 points. He has the breeding for this marathon.

Good luck to everyone!

Race 4: 6-Zio Tony
Race 5: 4-Yankee Empire
Race 6: 5-D’Funnybone
Race 7: 4-Fantasia (GB)
Race 8: 7-Elusive Warning
Race 9: 9-Buckleupbuttercup
Race 10: Pinckney Hill
Race 11: 10-Stay Put

-I like Zio Tony’s last effort at the big A and he offers a bit of value at 4/1 (should be higher by post time).

-My top choice in the 5th would be Manhattan Fox, but I’m a little leery of Gomez right now as he just doesn’t appear to be at the top of his game. Dominguez gets on board Yankee Empire who I think Tagg will have ready to roll today.

-Fantasia is a horse that I liked a lot a Keeneland where she was beaten by a neck in her NA debut. I’m tossing that race at Churchill as I don’t think the going was to her liking. A firm course today should get her back to her very best and I like her to upset this small field.

-Race 9 was just brutal for me to come up with a single selection but I’ll go with Buckleupbuttercup due to her value and off-the-pace running style.

-I’m swinging for the fences in the Belmont with Stay Put…If I’m going down then at least I’ll go down with big priced horses.