Just For Fun - An 8-race Virginia Derby Day Contest
by JP Fanshawe on Jul 16, 2010 7:42 PM EDT
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PrintMattG: Bumped to the front because, hey, it's a handicapping contest!
The races for this week's mythical contest are Colonial Downs 8-12, and Monmouth 8-10. Why those races? Because those are the races for which I have done my math! (I love that Colonial puts up its programs two, and sometimes even three, days before the day of the races.) Format is the same as the National Handicapping Championship - $2 to win and place on a single horse. Rather than post all my picks ahead of time, I plan to play this one like a real online contest. The wife and kids are out of town and I am batching it like it's 1996, so why not sit around for a few hours, drink some beers and play the ponies, right? So, contest picks must be in prior to post time. This way, we can note the scratches, get a look at the post parades and see the live odds. You may play two entries.
Post for the first race, the Chenery Stakes, is 3:21 Eastern. I will be posting my picks for that race sometime around then.
By the way, that is Paddy O'Prado pictured above, romping home in the Colonial Turf Cup. The bride and I were there to watch that, and you wouldn't believe how washed out he looked in the paddock. No matter. He was too classy, and may be for this field as well. But an even-money favorite won't help you much in a handicapping contest...now will it?
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Count me in.
I’m making my final pass through the Monmouth card later this evening.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
Scratches/Changes Links
Colonial Downs scratches/changes
Monmouth Park scratches/changes
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
First Leg Post is 3:46
…not 3:21, as I wrote above. I am thinking about goals. It occurred to me during the Belmont Day contest, in which I scored $69 and change, that expecting winning totals from what would be just the mandatory races in a contest might be wrongheaded. It is good practice for the NHC tourneys, where it seems the bankroll x 2.5 formula is pretty accurate (today’s goal by that method = $80). But for the sake of this exercise, I will be pleased today if I can net half that – the thought being that if I am worth my salt I would gain some dollars from my seven optionals.
There is a thought. As the NHC approaches, we should do a couple of trial runs. 8 mandatories, and 7 optionals…what do you think?
Damn, some of these races’ have had their pace scenarios seriously altered via scratch.
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Scratches...the handicapper's stick in the eye.
All the work the night before and then, poof, every thing can change.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I like tyring to mimic NHC play.
It’s such a different format than how you approach a normal day at the track (at least for me), that it’s always good to get in the “Contest” mode of thinking.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Gotta love the live track stream
Colonial doing their Virginia Derby Hat Contest right now. Very nice.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
Yeah, My Brother Is There...
…says it is a great time as usual. We’ve been a few times. Saw Go Between and Kip Deville
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Kip Deville was a personal fav.
Had him at the 07 BC at Monmouth Park.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Colonial 8
9-Watchthiskick has been bet to 7/1 after a ML of 20/1.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
Colonial 8 Picks
A few minutes early, but I think my mind is made up.
Entry 1: #5 Happytheman
Entry 2: #4 Ol’ Man Murph
Two best closing figures in the field and both currenty at double the morning line odds. Hope that holds! I think Z Appeal is being way overbet. I seriously considered #9 Watchthiskick…most money by start off a strong purse in its only race – a two-length win.
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Lots of value in the 8th...if you can beat the 1
Leaning towards the 3 in this spot. I like that the switch to the turf seemed to wake him up last time out.
Entry 1: #3-The Flying Whizzer
Entry 2: #5-Happytheman
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Nice Place Score On The 3
Ol Man Murph gave a thrill, but it is a long stretch. #5 third…of course!
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
He looked completely out of it off the turn..
I was surprised to see him grab the 2nd spot.
That pace went a little quicker than I was expecting.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Ditto....
I mentioned my selections’ having the best closing figures….yeah, well not when they run on the front end!
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
What was that first 1/4? 21+
I was expecting 22-something.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Colonial 9
I don’t care for most of thses in this race so I’m going towards the larger end of the odds board:
Entry 1: #6 Cherry Road
Entry 2: #4 Vivendi’s Verdict
I normally wouldn’t touch a maiden llike Cherry Road in this spot but there doesn’t appear to be any monsters in this race and I think Cherry Road might find the switch to the lawn to her liking.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
Correction
I mean switch to the lawn might be to Vivendi’s Verdit’s liking, since she’s trying it for the 1st time. Cherry Road is just a price play.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Like Your Thinking....
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Colonial 9 Picks
Entry 1: #8 Funny Side Girl
Entry 2: #4 Vivendi’s Verdict
I like the firster because of that bullet in her second work. Trainer knows she has the speed, eases her off in the next two and now can fire at this distance. Hoping, anyway. Agree on the #4 with you because, there really isn’t any value to be had anywhere else, is there?
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
You're right, it's a tough race for good value..
Especially after those three scratches.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Cherry Road...
…does have the owner/trainer in stakes angle going. I am going to be pissed if that scores…
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Damn, And I Love That Actress...
…guess there was value elsewhere. Argh!
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Can't Find A Single Thing....
…that would have encouraged me to take her, other than the name, and maybe the fact that she is 2 and won her last race….
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Well...I had no clue in that one
I woudn’t have had Winslet if I’d handicapped for a week.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Was Just Saying Same Thing...
That’s horse racing!
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Absolutely!
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Place Payment...
seems like it is half of what it should have been. Either a big pool watcher just scored, or somebody knew a little something about Winslet.
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Monmouth 8 Picks
Entry 1: 6-Life Lesson
Entry 2-6-Life Lesson
The only one worth any value to me here. 7 looks unbeatable.
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Great minds think alike.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions
If the 4 could have drifted a bit higher..
I would have gone that direction but the value just isn’t there.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Agree...
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Well....typical
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Where Is THE WIRE!?!
Can’t hold on for second, can ya LIfe Lesson? Another lesson for me, right? Frustrating.
Colonial’s stretch is grueling, with the heat and the thick grass. And speed is clearly not holding even at such short distances.
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Brutal beat.
I liked Life Lesson last night cause I thought Shaun B. would get out of the gate in good order, which he did, but that was still a tough way to lose 2nd.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Monmouth 8
I’m all over the 7!!!
Since everything but the 7 is at nice odds I’m going to go with 6-Life Lesson.
Entry 1: #6-Life Lesson
Entry 2: #6-Life Lesson
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
7 Rolling Home Wouldn't Bother Me Too Much...
since he was one of my singles in the pick 5. The 5 in the 6th got it done by a nose.
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Southern Anthem
Getting bet as the top last out Beyer. I guess we’ll find out if those figure makers made the right call on his last one.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
Still May Be Appealling To Me
at 6-1. Second best closer by my method behind the 7.
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Monmouth 10
I don’t like taking a short price but I really like Baltimore Bob in this spot. 7/2…ugh…4/1 or 9/2 would make me feel so much better (mainly due to the late money that I know is going to probably knock him down a notch).
Entry 1: #7 Baltimore Bob
Entry 2: #10 Target Sighted
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
Had That Same Battle....
…Bob is my key in the horizontals…
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Man,
I have never really noticed how long Colonial’s stretch seems to be….damn it. At least I am on the board.
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
That was brutal.
10.40 to place…not bad.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Guess Target Sighted Needed A :50.25 half....
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Colonial 10 Picks
Entry 1: #10-Target Sighted
Entry 2: #8-Dubai Review
10 has best closing figure that isn’t a horse also highly rated in early and middle numbers, and the 8 is in no pace figures at all, but is 5-of-5 itm at the trakc, 7-of-9 itm on turf, and 4-of-5 at the distance, so what the heck…
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Yeah, I like that 10
He had a bit of trouble in his last start, as well. Good candidate for an improved performance.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions
You got to be kidding me
Thought we had that one.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Homeister is a great turf jockey
she really times her runs well.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Bam, Just Like That, We Are At The Half....
what’s your $ MG? Me: Entry 1 $10.40. Entry 2: Zilch.
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
So far
Entry 1: 6.20
Entry 2: 10.40
Should have put the 10 on my 1st entry.
Need to pick a winner at some point.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Monmouth 9 Seems To Be
another where there isn’t much value. My top three horses for the contest are all 4-1.
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Similar for me
My top pick is the 5-Miss Honey B. so I’ll play her on the 2nd entry.
Entry 1: #6 Prince’s Pride
Entry 2: #5 Miss Honey B
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Monmouth 9 Picks
Entry 1: #10-Miss Ten Oaks
Entry 2: #6-Prince’s Prize
Miss Ten Oaks was my original top choice for one entry, but I would like it if she drifted up to her morning line odds. Pace seems like it will be unaffected by scratch and she closes well. Prince’s Prize was not a horse I originally intended to take, but I like the price considering his speed figure average is second in this bunch, and Angel Serpa is aboard in a jockey change.
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Um, TVG, do we really need double box for this?
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
Well that's nice...
I would have been happy if the 6 hadn’t pressured the 5 going into the turn so that either a) the 5 would have more left in the tank, or b) the 6 woulnd’t have moved prematurely.
Big zero on that one.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
Me, Too...
And to think, I like the 6 more with Serpa aboard. I don’t think that was a very good ride. Somewhat of a moot point, though, because the post-time fave was much the best.
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Agreed.
He rolled them in the end.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions
BTW...the Pick 5 will pay is going to blow...
I’d like to be glad that I am alive on three tickets…but let’s see, 4-5 over 5-2 over 2-5 over 2-1 doesn’t mean you are a very good handicapper. I am alive to the 3 on three tickets, and on two of them, also the 1, 4, and 8.
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
I'm guessing you want the 8 to win
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions
You Are Right....
8 pays 979 and I would have it twice. The 1 pays $211, the 4 ,$140, and the 3, $142. So I guess not too bad, considering I only wagered $120. That is, unless someone other than one of these four wins….!
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Good luck...
I hope that 8 brings it home.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Colonial 11
How about a winner? Goodness, if it’s a day of a lot of chalk I always get killed.
The board is pretty much making the decision for me in this race. I had my top four for this race as the 8-1-3-5. There is no value in the 8. The 1 is 9/2…eh, not bad, but no thanks. The 3 is a good 8/1 and the 5 is 8/1. Easy decision. at this point since I don’t have too much in the winnings.
Kilmore Quay got worked up at Arlington last time out which pretty much cost her any chance at the win. I like her to come back with a better effort this time if she doesn’t freak out in the gate. Fingers crossed. I’ll play her on my #2.
Entry 1: #3 Midway Holiday
Entry 2: #5 Kilmore Quay
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
Colonial 11 Picks
Entry 1: #2- Martita Sangrita
Entry 2: #7-Frances Garnder
The 2 because of a top best late figure, which has been exactly wrong every race here so far. The 7 because of a best speed fig at the distance and an inflated price.
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Man, after that 1:16+ for six that she had that.
Colonial….you’re killing me!
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I Know...
Weird race. Best frontrunner closes from last. Magnificent ride. One merry go round horse, the 5, and the best closers back track in the stretch.
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
I Am Telling You...
there is a 5k walk that ends at the finish line on Va. Derby day and I did it once, and the grass was hard to walk through.
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
I've never noticed it before
Just a grueling stretch drive. Punishing.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions
This Is The Kind Of Thing I Always Notice After The Fact...
…but I don’t know how I wasn’t on the 6 in this race. Granted, he finished third, so no loss. But 5-1 on the morning line and goes off at 19-1….
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
I missed the odds drifting up, too
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Monmouth 10 Picks
Entry 1: #3-Blushing Bear
Entry 2:#8-Crew
Came up quick!
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Monmouth 10
Entry 1 #2 Almoradi
Entry 2 #4 Sporting Art
but I’d rather the 8 wins so you can cash at nice Pick 5
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
Thanks.
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Well, I Am Not Going To Complain....
..but for a second I thought the 8 was going to turn this into a pretty nice day. $280 off a $120 wager ain’t horrible….
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
I should say....clearing $160...
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Nice Hit on Entry 2 For You....
I don’t think I am going to get to my goal of $40, unless craziness happens in our last race.
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
That helped out entry #2 quite a bit
Paddy is going to make it difficult to get value out of the last race.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions
NIce work..
Considering all of the chalk it’s a good feat to clear that amoutn.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Stately Victor bet down to 5/2
Yeah, didn’t see that 8/1 ML holding up.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
Me, Either....
Derby horses, even those who have not run well, have usually done well at Colonial.
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Okay, So The Trifecta in Colonial 11
paid $112, so no one in the Colonial online contest caught my wife with that one since she is a about 5 grand ahead of the person in third. She needs a 1200 dollar score off a superfecta wager in theis last racec to win the thing…so fingers crossed.
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
That's great.
I hope she gets it. Regardless, she’s had a great run in that contest.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, Me Too...I Want A Vegas Trip!
I would relish a couple more viewings of “Love” and some great meals.
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
We saw "Love" last time we were there.
Great, gerat show. That was my first time seeing it.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Like You Said Earlier...
great minds think alike. We need to all get together sometime…you got a horse-race lovin’ girlfriend/wife, don’t you?
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Let's Get Qualified For The NHC
..and spend a week out there!
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
That's my goal
I really want to make Vegas one of these years. I was close a few years ago at the Emerald tourny but haven’t been close since.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions
She's not as hard core as me...
but she likes to go to the track with me at times and she lets me sit in front of the TV/computer whenever I want to play so it’s a good situation.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Got To Think
that Krypton is outstanding value at 10-1.
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Or, Two Notch Road at 18-1!
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
I was just looking at Two Notch Road
Seems like that’s way too high on him.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Well He Certainly Doesn't Deserve To Be The Same Odds As The 4....
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
That was my thought.
Either the 1 or the 2 as value plays for me.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Still Some Time To Go...
but if those odds hold, my picks are made, especially since my first entry needs about 10-1 to get to 40, and Entry 2 needs a cap horse, so 18-1 is close enough…
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Any Reason To Like The 5...?
Not that you really need one when you need the price late in a contest, but how about the ol’ "what-the-hell-is-he-doing-here angle? Deficient in speed figs, and coming what, four or five steps up the class ladder from a maiden claiming 16k. Notice that the trainer owns him? Graded stakes…a maybe…
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Check That....Meant the 4....
and trainer does not own…but did win that MC race by 6
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Prep race
I guess that 16K maiden claimer was a “Win and You’re In” for the Va Derby.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Here's a question
How is that horse only 30/1? Should be like 50/1…or 100/1, if we are talking true odds.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, Good Question....
…but it looks like the odds maker did a good job, because he was close with his number. I like it when the oddsmakers try to nail the public perception of a horse rather than being statistically accurate…
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Me too.
Surprising because I would have a hard time making that horse 30/1 on the ML, even if I was trying to predict the public. I guess he has a really good insight as to what the mob will do.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I can't figure that one at all.
Although, I like Homeister in the irons on the lawn.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Interactif
He’s a horse I like quite a bit but I don’t think a mile and a quarter on this type of course is going to suit him today. Seems like he’d be better suited for something at a mile. If he was 6/1 or 8/1, I’d be tempted to take the plunge.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Colonial 12
I think Krypton has a good shot to hit the place so I’ll play him on my #2.
Entry 1 #1 Two Notch Road
Entry 2 #2 Krypton
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
Again, Great Minds...
…think we posted simultaneously there!
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Colonial 12 Picks
Entry 1: #2-Krypton
Entry 2: #1-Two Notch Road
Odds seem to be holding, and are now drifting back up. So, I will take ’em…
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
TVG and HRTV
Disappointing that neither are carrying this race, or any Colonial races today. This has been a very nice card it deserves more exposure.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I spoke too soon
HRTV just went to Colonial and are going to show the Va Derby…it’s the only Colonial race they’ve shown today.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Agree...
CBS used to carry it…they were doing the Grand Slam of grass for a couple of years.
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Direct TV
I don’t have HRTV…dammit.
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Paddy Is Just Too Good
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
3 yo division
Considering how open this divison is, he could be the top dog by the end of the year, especially if he keeps rolling on the lawn.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Stately Victor....
…did he run in the race. I will tell you one thing…if that horse doesn’t have any pace to run at, toss him.
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
He's an odds colt...
I’ll have to watch the replay and check the chart on him. I forgot he was in the race until you just mentioned him. Complete no show.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions
You and I...
3rd and 4th…of course….!
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Story of the day, right?
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah....
but I love exercises like this. I had three thirds on entry 1, and a 3rd and 3 4ths on entry 2. So, it was close, and we were both playing for value, which is what you have to do to win these things. I have talked to a lot of guys at tourneys through the years and to a man they all say that in a 15-race contest, you are only trying to pick 4 winners….
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Agreed. Good times and good practice for tournaments
Entry 1 finished up at 12.20, entry 2 at 36.80. Two 2nds on entry two, both were good priced horses that wore down at Colonial. I’ll have to remember that in the future.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Great Job On Entry 2....
I think you would be in the thick of things with a few optionals left to play….! Tell you what….next week is the onlone NHC tour…want to use those as the mandatories and pick 7 races from the other tracks they use as optionals? We could mimic the actual NHC?
Of course, wife is out of town, so I don’t know if I can do all that math…!
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
I only had the $10.40 on entry 1
…so not a day to remember for me, tourney wise…..
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Yeah, that sounds good.
I’m in.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Col 12 Dollar Super Paid 41 bucks...
…so my wife nets $250 for her efforts in the online tourney. Breeder’s Cup Fund is growing….
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Always good to add to the bankroll.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Fun Excercise....
…talk to you soon.
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Absolutely!
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Jul 17, 2010 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions
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