Rachel Alexandra upset by Persistently in the Personal Ensign
by Matt Gardner on Aug 29, 2010 6:09 PM EDT
in Saratoga
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PrintRachel Alexandra, 2009 Horse of the Year, ran an all-out and gutsy race in the mile and a quarter Personal Ensign but was run down in the final furlong by 20/1 long shot Persistently. Life At Ten, the strong second choice, finished third.
1st: Persistently (45.00, 8.10, 3.60)
2nd: Rachel Alexandra (2.30, 2.10)
3rd: Life At Ten (2.10)
Splits: 23.66, 47.73, 1:12.02, 1:37.54, 2:04.49
Chart (via DRF.com)
UPDATE: According to the DRF Formulator charts, Persistently earned a 95 BSF, Rachel a 94.
I'll have a larger post on this race and all of this weekend's stakes races later on, as there is a lot to talk about, but just a few thoughts on the Personal Ensign:
- Rachel ran her butt off in this race. She had to do all the dirty work on the front end and she put away a very formidable opponent in Life At Ten. That, in and of itself, is very impressive. She ran fast and she ran hard.
- It's hard not to watch Rachel run in that race and not come to the conclusion that she would be extremely vulnerable in the Breeders' Cup Classic at Churchill Downs. The pace in the Classic isn't going to be any lighter than the Personal Ensign (most likely), and she would have to deal with much classier closers, like Zenyatta and Blame, as well as a longer stretch drive. Unless her connections can turn her into a horse that can rate much more effectively (which somewhat eliminates her biggest strength - her high cruising speed), I think she is going to have trouble getting a mile and a quarter.
- It's always tough to compare times from different days but the final time of 2:04.40 for the Personal Ensign is not good. Perhaps the track isn't as fast as it was on Saturday but that is a full second slower than the Travers and that wasn't one of the quicker Travers we've seen.
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They needed another horse to track
Hard to be the speed for that far. Either that or the distance is just too long period for RA.
Yeah, they both pushed each other pretty hard.
The final half mile split was really, really slow. She really hit the wall in the final quarter.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Aug 29, 2010 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions
They Need To Face It....
She was at her outer limit in her Preakness win….she is built for a mile and an eighth. This year has kind of confirmed that horse of the year went to the wrong filly last year, don’t you think? I mean, even if she did run a gutty race, the others in here weren’t that classy…
…and I don’t really follow the logic on Rachel being compromised by being on the front end when the times were so dawdling. If anything, that should have helped her. 2:04 and a half and caught in the stretch? No way Rachel should be pointed toward the Classic.
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
I'm a HUGE Zenyatta fan
But I don’t think you can make the case based on this year that last year they got it wrong, because 2009 and 2010 are different animals.
I DO think Z should’ve won last year, but RA’s recent struggles don’t show that.
RA peaked last summer
I agree completely on her preferred distance: a mile and an eighth or a sixteenth is her sweet spot. Even her Preakness win at 3/16ths she was being asked quite a bit by Borel. In my mind, she hasn’t been the same since she started facing older horses. Check her PPs, her races against older have all been hard fought wins or really soft fields.
Rachel’s greatest asset is that high cruising speed but in a mile and a quarter race, where she’s clearly going a bit too far for her, that speed is also her greatest weakness. So I think she was compromised by the pace but in conjunction with her limitation at the distance. If she wants to win at a mile and a quarter (based on what I saw today) she needs to get the half in something like 49+…and I don’t even know that would have gotten it done.
I agree about the Classic, I just can’t see them entering her in that race. Quality Road on the front end. Probably First Dude on the front end. Lookin At Lucky stalking. Blame and Zenyatta coming late. She’d be something like 5th or 6th choice on my odds line if she was in the Classic, at best.
I can’t say the voters got it wrong last year – I would have voted for Zenyatta but Rachel had an outstanding year. At the same time, I think that Zenyatta is clearly the better horse right now, on any surface.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Aug 29, 2010 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions
If We Don't Think That They Got It Wrong About Last Year,
why do all three of us write that we would have voted for Zenyatta last year? Her high speed figs aside (5-10 points better on average than Zen), Rachel has really underwhelmed against open company this year, which just makes me doubt her accomplishments of last year, because I think it is also becoming clear that last year’s 3-year old crop was pretty thin….
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
I Do Think...
we should be happy that they brought her back for a 4-year old campaign, which they probably regret because I bet it has devalued her breeding price a bit. At least they had the guts to keep running her out there…
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
I do think they got it wrong
I was just saying you can’t use 2010 results in a 2009 HOY argument. Seperate years and all.
It think there were reasons for voting for either last year..
Even though I would have voted for Zenyatta there were plenty of reasons to vote for Rachel. I guess my position was that I don’t think there was really a “wrong” pick for HOY in 09 even if the one I preferred didn’t win.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Aug 30, 2010 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions
I think
They got it right with her last year. She won the preakness, she had a record performance at the Kentucky Oaks, she beat older colts. Yes, Zenyatta is better now, but RA was the talk of racing because of how she dominated Fillies, won a triple crown race, and beat the boys. I’ll give Zenyatta credit for the BC Classic last year, but to that point she never really proved she could run on another surface. I’m still not sure she wins if it was on dirt, and I definitely don’t think she’ll win this years’ Classic.
While both had long layoffs, RA just never quite was the same horse after her layoff. I don’t know if it was the long stretch where training got cancelled, or if they just caught lightening in a bottle last season, but eye test wise, RA has just not looked the same to me this year, even in vicotry.
I like the site too, first time commenting but I’ve been following for a while.
Thanks for the comment
Good point about RA in victory not passing the eye test. I agree completely that even when’s she’s won this year Rachel clearly isn’t the same horse and for me it’s how she runs on the turn as compared to last year. In 09, she broke everyone’s spirit on the far turn, this year horses are making up big ground on the turn.
The Classic should be pretty interesting this year, even w/out RA. I think Zenyatta will run fine on dirt (plus, I think the long Churchill stretch will be something she loves) but Blame will be quite formidable. Should be a great betting race, too.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Aug 30, 2010 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions
I certainly think...
That Zenyatta can run on dirt, I just think the perception last year was that she dominated on synthetic but never really strayed from that all year. At the sime time RA only ran on dirt I guess, but it’s more traditional. Plus I think the fact that Rachel took on the boys multiple times and won swayed the vote her way. Almost like people assumed if she did run the Classic last year, she would’ve won.
That Classic will be a great race this year. I will bet, and probably lose on Lookin at Lucky. I love this horse, and this race may be a bit too much for him right now, but he should have good odds.
Yeah, Lucky should be at a very nice price.
There could be some decent horses that aren’t able to draw into the Classic. Horses like First Dude or Ice Box, while I wouldn’t rate them as anything but long shots in the Classic, might be on the fringe when it gets down to it (unless they were to win something in the next month or so).
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Aug 30, 2010 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
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