2010 Breeders' Cup Classic: Future Odds Comparison
by Matt Gardner on Sep 21, 2010 7:55 PM EDT
in Breeders' Cup
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PrintThe future odds for this year's Breeders' Cup Classic have stabilized quite a bit in the last month or so. Unless one of the top contenders were to stumble badly in their final prep races it is unlikely we'll see much movement on the future lines over the next four to six weeks. How the betting public will evaluate this horses on Breeders' Cup weekend remains to be seen, but I think the future odds give us a decent ind ication as to which way things may shake out on race day.
Below is a comparison of the current future odds for the Breeders' Cup Classic between the Wynn Las Vegas and the international bookmakers of Paddy Power and Bet365.
|
Horse |
|||
|
Zenyatta |
3/1 |
4/1 |
7/2 |
|
Quality Road |
4/1 |
6/1 |
6/1 |
|
Lookin At Lucky |
9/2 |
4/1 |
9/2 |
|
Blame |
5/1 |
5/1 |
6/1 |
|
Espoir City |
6/1 |
14/1 |
16/1 |
|
Rachel Alexandra |
12/1 |
12/1 |
12/1 |
|
Twice Over |
15/1 |
20/1 |
14/1 |
|
Fly Down |
15/1 |
16/1 |
16/1 |
|
Rip Van Winkle |
16/1 |
20/1 |
12/1 |
|
Rail Trip |
18/1 |
16/1 |
20/1 |
|
Fame And Glory |
20/1 |
16/1 |
16/1 |
|
Misremembered |
20/1 |
20/1 |
20/1 |
|
Awesome Gem |
30/1 |
33/1 |
40/1 |
|
Ice Box |
30/1 |
33/1 |
33/1 |
|
First Dude |
30/1 |
33/1 |
40/1 |
|
Gitano Hernando |
30/1 |
25/1 |
25/1 |
|
A Little Warm |
35/1 |
33/1 |
50/1 |
|
Trappe Shot |
40/1 |
20/1 |
25/1 |
|
Mine That Bird |
60/1 |
25/1 |
33/1 |
|
Super Saver |
n/a |
25/1 |
25/1 |
|
Byword |
n/a |
20/1 |
16/1 |
|
|
Some thoughts on these lines below the jump
-The line for the Japanese Espoir City has moved dramatically in the U.S. in relation to the international betting markets (6/1 vs. 14/1 or 16/1). Somebody, or a group of somebodies, has thrown a lot of money in this colt's direction in the last month to move the line like that.
-The American markets have ignored Byword up to this point while he's taken a good amount of action at Paddy Power and Bet365. Byword won the Group 1 Prince of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot in June.
-The top four contenders are pretty much the same across all the betting markets. Paddy Power will give you the best odds on Zenyatta (4/1), but the lowest on Looking at Lucky (4/1).
-Travers winners Afleet Express is 18/1 at the Wynn but is not currently listed on the Paddy Power or Bet365 odds that I found.
-Two of the top three year olds that are not included on this table, Sidney's Candy and Twirling Candy, are being offered by the Wynn at odds of 75/1 and 30/1 for the Classic.
-Does anyone see anything they really like or dislike on these odds lines? Anything seem out of kilter to you or is there a price that you'd love to see on your horses come race day?
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Lookin' At Lucky
Stunned he’s the 2nd choice at this point. Not that I think he can’t win – but I would definitely think Blame would be above him at the least.
Just a guess on my part,
but it may have to do a bit with name recognition for the international bookmakers. For a while, Super Saver was still getting decent play in those markets while his odds fell in Vegas.
I’m with you, if I was making an odds line I’d but Blame just a bit above him on the board. Actually, I would have it go Zen – Blame – Lucky – somebody else – Quality Road, I’m just not convinced QR will be at his best at 10 furlongs off a two month layoff.
I don’t know enough about Espoir City to know where to rank him but I was really surprised to see his odds get cut to 6/1 in Vegas.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Sep 21, 2010 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Byword
I am bullish on Byword and hope the US ignorence to him continues so the odds stay at a big overlay.
I am not sure that I see Looking at Lucky as that much better than A Little Warm (more bullish) – Warm will probably come down.
I could use as much info as possible on the Euros and a little lesson in interpreting the Timeform PP for them.
Timeform is pretty simple....
everything you need to know is at this link: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/static.cgi?page=timeform
They say that Timeform figs aren’t comparable to the way in which other speed figs are compiled, but I found a nifty conversion chart at pacefigures.com, which has proved helpful to me in Breeder’s Cup races. You can find it here: http://pacefigures.com/articles/racingpost.html
If these links don’t hyperthread, just cut and paste them into your browser.
Lastly, I never attack any race involving foreigners without checking out attheraces.com, which incidentally, offers all cards free. I hope this helps!
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Nevermind on the conversions...
I just noticed that that the timeform column is gone. Sorry about that. But on average, the timeform number will be in the vicinity of 14 less than the Beyer. However, keep in mind that converting them really is a silly exercise anyway, because speed figures are compiled with the use of times and variants on a given day, while timeform’s number is compiled looking at an entire population of horses and pointing toward horses that are rounding into form. Horses with any kind of “P” should be used, especially if it is upper case. And I also pay attention to any horse with a “plus” sign.
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
That's kind of my process, as well.
Good stuff from JP.
With Timeform ratings here’s kind of a real simple guide I use:
1. Anything in the 120s to 130 range immediately makes me take notice of the horse in question, regardless of track. There may be reasons to toss the horse later but that type of rating usually indicates a lot of class. If a rating is earned at a top track, they are a serious contender, in my mind.
2. Anything in the 110s but earned at a top race meeting against Group 1 competition.
I love to look for horses that have been winning with decent Timeform ratings at courses like Newmarket, Ascot, Deauville, Longchamp, Chantilly…any of the top tracks in Europe, even if it’s only Group 3 or listed stakes. Those race meets are really concentrated with a lot of class and talent across the board.
One other thing I personally love to look at with the Timeform ratings is the condition of turf they were earned over. They race on much softer courses in Europe than we do so sometimes you see fluctuations between ratings earned over soft ground as compared to “good to firm”. I look very closely at horses with solid ratings earned over “good to firm” courses since our turf courses in N.A. tend to be much harder and firmer. The Breeders’ Cup is a bit of an exception, but a lot of European horses are sent to the U.S. precisely because their connections believe they will run much better over firmer ground.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
by Matt Gardner on Sep 22, 2010 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions
One other thought on these odds
The top five on the future odds (if you just go by the Wynn numbers) project out to about 94%, if you convert the odds to percentages. The odds-to-percentage conversion from the 2009 Classic added up to 121%. If were were to see a similar total in 2010 (which we should), some of the odds on these contenders will have to drift up just for the mere fact that other horses in the field will take at least some action (and the likelihood that Zenyatta will take even more).
Below is the 2009 Classic breakdown by horse in order of finish:
Horse – Odds – Percentage
Zenyatta - 5/2 – 28.57
Gio Ponti – 12/1 – 7.69
Twice Over – 9/1 – 10.00
Summer Bird – 7/1 – 12.50
Colonel John – 12/1 – 7.69
Richard’s Kid – 11/1 – 8.33
Awesome Gem – 52/1 – 1.89
Regal Ransom – 39/1 – 2.50
Mine That Bird – 14/1 – 6.67
Rip Van Winkle – 7/2 – 22.22
Einstein – 10/1 – 9.09
Girolamo – 25/1 – 3.85
Total – 121%
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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