2011 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Preview
by Matt Gardner on Oct 1, 2011 10:26 PM EDT
in Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe
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Defending champion Workforce (GB) will try to become the first back-to-back winner of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe since Alleged in 1977/1978 when he faces 15 rivals on Sunday morning at Longchamp in Paris. The 2011 Arc is scheduled to go to post at 10:15am Eastern/7:15am Pacific, and can be viewed on both HRTV and TVG. Also appearing on the Sunday's Arc card is three-time Breeders' Cup Mile winner Goldikova (IRE); she will run her final race in France in the Group 1 Prix de la Foret.
Like many of the racecourses in Europe, Lonchamp is a challenging and stamina testing course, especially at the classic distance of a mile and a half. Below is a diagram of the Longchamp course, along with a description of the Arc trip.
The Arc begins at the far left starting position for races at 2,400 meters. The field will run the first furlong or so on the flat, and then proceed uphill until reaching about the midway point on long turn at the far right portion of the course. From there, the field will descend slightly as they run int the "false stretch" before facing another slight rise in elevation as they enter the final furlongs.
The run to the top of the turn is quite testing and, as a result, the pace is usually very, very slow during this portion of the race. As you watch races from Longchamp that run over this part of the course, you can see the considerable elevation gain from the gate to the top of the turn. The picture below gives you some perspective as to the elevation gain during the opening furlongs, although this vantage point is not at the highest point. You can see the Arc starting gate all the way in the back of the photo.
We discussed several times this year about weight and how much difference a pound or two makes during the running of the race. The two extra pounds that Havre de Grace carried when running against Blind Luck in the Delaware Oaks was the prime focal point during 2011. The Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe is a weight-for-age/sex race and the weight differences can be quite severe, especially for older horses. The official weights are (of course) in the metric kilograms, but (thankfully) not stone. Using the power of the internet in order to assist this non-metric American, I've calculated the Arc weights in pounds.
| Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Weights | ||
| Age/Sex | Kilograms | Pounds |
| 4up Colts |
59.5 | 131.18 |
| 4up Fillies & Mares | 58.0 | 127.87 |
| 3yo Colts |
56.0 | 123.46 |
| 3yo Fillies | 54.5 | 120.15 |
Check out those weight allowances for three-year-olds; does it surprise anyone to know that seven of the last eight winners of the Arc have been three-year-olds, including two fillies (Sea the Stars and Zarkava)? Furthermore, beginning in 1994, only three horses have won the Arc that weren't three-years-old (Sakhee, Marienbard (IRE), and Dylan Thomas (IRE)).
Now think about this year's Arc; Galikova, Reliable man, Treasure Beach, Seville, Shareta and Testosterone will all receive very nice weight concessions. The three-year-old fillies - Galikova, Shareta and Testosterone - will carry 11 pounds less than Workforce and So You Think.
Below are the entries, draw and weight allowances for the 2011 Arc:
| # | Draw | Horse | Age/Sex | Weight | Jockey | Trainer | BestOdds |
| 4 | 1 | Hiruno d'Amour (JPN) | 4c | 131.18 | S. Fujita | M. Kon | 14/1 |
| 15 | 2 | Danedream (GER) | 3f | 120.15 | A. Starke | P. Schiergen | 20/1 |
| 14 | 3 | Testosterone (IRE) | 3f | 120.15 | S. Pasquier | P. Bary | 100/1 |
| 11 | 5 | Masked Marvel (GB) | 3c | 123.46 | W. Buick | J. Gosden | 14/1 |
| 16 | 5 | Galikova (FR) | 3f | 120.15 | O. Peslier | F. Head | 7/1 |
| 2 | 6 | St Nicholas Abbey (IRE) | 4c | 131.18 | J.P. O'Brien | A. O'Brien | 33/1 |
| 12 | 7 | Reliable Man (GB) | 3c | 123.46 | G. Mosse | A. De Royer-Dupre | 12/1 |
| 1 | 8 | Workforce (GB) | 4c | 131.18 | R. Moore | M. Stoute | 9/1 |
| 13 | 9 | Shareta (IRE) | 3f | 120.15 | T. Jarnet | A. De Royer-Dupre | 100/1 |
| 10 | 10 | Meandre (FR) | 3c | 123.46 | M. Guyon | A. Fabre | 12/1 |
| 8 | 11 | Snow Fairy (IRE) | 4f | 127.87 | F. Dettori | E. Dunlop | 12/1 |
| 9 | 12 | Treasure Beach (IRE) | 3c | 123.46 | C. O'Donoghue | A. O'Brien | 33/1 |
| 7 | 13 | Sarafina (FR) | 4f | 127.87 | C. Lemaire | A. De Royer-Dupre | 4/1 |
| 6 | 14 | So You Think (NZ) | 5h | 131.18 | S. Heffernan | A. O'Brien | 5/1 |
| 3 | 15 | Silver Pond (FR) | 4c | 131.13 | T. Thulliez | C. Laffon-Parias | 150/1 |
| 5 | 16 | Nakayama Festa (JPN) | 5h | 131.18 | M. Ebina | Y. Ninomiya | 33/1 |
With a 16 horse field, there are many different ways one can go in playing the Arc. I don't think Workforce is as good this year as he was in 2010, so I'm inclined to go against him in this spot. Ditto for So You Think, who is a very good but is going to be challenged by the weight and the distance. So You Think is much, much better at 10 furlongs and the Arc is one of the more testing 12 furlongs any horse will encounter.
Hiruno d'Amour (JPN) could represent some great value on the board after only missing by a neck to likely favorite Sarafina last time out over the Arc course. As of today, Hiruno d'Amour was around 12/1 with British bookmakers.
At the end of the day, I like two fillies in this years Arc: four-year-old Sarafina (FR), and three-year-old Galikova (FR).
Sarafina (FR): The likely favorite has been as good as a horse can be during 2011 with three wins in four starts. She began the year with a one length loss to Planteur in the Group 1 Pix Ganay in April. Man o'War and Arlington Million winner Cape Blanco (IRE) finished in fourth that day, a length and a half back of Sarafina. She bounced back from defeat to easily beat her own sex in the G2-Prix Corrida at Saint-Cloud in late May, followed by a pair of wins in the G1-Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud and the G2-Prix Foy.
Sarafina has defeated Hiruno d'Amour, St Nicholas Abbey (IRE), Nakayama Festa (JPN), Cirrus Des Aigles (FR) (runner-up in Saturday's G2-Prix Dollar), and Silver Pond (FR) during the year.
Galikova (FR): Unlike her half-sister Goldikova (IRE), Galikova appears to relish runn at distances longer than a mile. After a juvenile campaign that saw her win one race from two starts, Galikova stepped up to group stakes company in 2011 and has never looked back. After beginning the year with a win in a listed stakes race at Saint-Cloud, Galikova came back to score her first Group win in the G3-Prix Cleopatre at 10 ½ furlongs. From there she stepped up to the Group 1 level in the Prix de Diane (French Oaks) at Chantilly, where she finished a good second to the classy Golden Lilac (IRE). After a win against Group 2 competition in the Pix Guillaume d'Ornano (where Golden Lilac finished 3rd), Galikova finally broke through at the Group 1 level with a win in the Prix Vermeille while going 12 furlongs over ground rated "Very Soft" at Longchamp.
Galikova has proven to be a classy filly capable of running a big race, but the Arc is going to be, by far, the most difficult race she's had in her brief career. She will, however, receive a very nice weight allowance for 3yo fillies.
The Pick
Sarafina has been very consistent this year, is versatile over a variety of ground conditions, and may have won this race a year ago if not for a brutal trip in the final furlongs. A clean trip tomorrow and I think she finds herself in the winner's circle.
Below are the entries for the Prix de la Foret featuring Goldikova:
| # | Draw | Horse | Age/Sex | Weight | Jockey | Trainer | BestOdds |
| 7 | 1 | Flash Dance (IRE) | 5m | 125 | M. Barzalona | F. Head | 200/1 |
| 8 | 2 | Goldikova (IRE) | 6m | 125 | O. Peslier | F. Head | 8/11 |
| 6 | 3 | Dever Dream (GB) | 4f | 125 | R. Hughes | W. Haggas | 28/1 |
| 5 | 4 | Bewitched (IRE) | 4f | 125 | J. Murtagh | C. O'Brien | 14/1 |
| 2 | 5 | Worthadd (IRE) | 4c | 128 | F. Dettori | V. Caruso | 10/1 |
| 3 | 6 | Dream Ahead | 3c | 126 | W. Buick | D. Simcock | 7/2 |
| 4 | 7 | Surfrider (IRE) | 3c | 126 | C. Lemaire | E. Libaud | 33/1 |
| 1 | 8 | Marchand d'Or (FR) | 8g | 128 | D. Bonilla | M. Delzangles | 20/1 |
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Longchamp meeting started
After the first jockeys are reporting the ground is Good.
Kieren Fallon: “I thought it was good ground. It will be good fast ground by the Arc.” Lemaire also describes ground as good.
Cadran (2m4f) won by Kasbah Bliss – classy horse that has been around the top staying races in Europe (flat and hurdles) for years
Abbaye (5f) next
Abbaye goes to Tangerine Trees
Made all, just held on from Secret Asset (always up there just behind the pace, finished well) and Sole Power (held up, very slightly checked making up ground, finishing like a steam train)
(Winner won the G3 sprint on Guineas Day back in April. Jockey’s first ever G1 winner)
Elsuive Kate winnning streak continues, bags a G1
made all, Fire Lily chased but never got there, warm fav Zantenda only third. Winner ran very wide off the bend, finished in middle of course, others followed her – Zantenda only one that stuck the rail.
Bo Derek just interviewed on the BBC
(had no idea she was on the California racing board – actually had no idea it was her until they said her name at the end). Competent interviewee all in all. At Longchamp promoting the BC apparently.
And finally TVG coverage kicks in
Missed the early races…as happens every year. One day we’ll get full coverage.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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main tv coverage just starting in UK and France also
(previous races on the digital platforms of the beeb)
Good Morning btw
Good morning to you
It’s a nice 6am out here in the Pacific Northwest. I was up at 5am and then fell back asleep. These big international days are tough on the old body clock.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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I should say "good afternoon"
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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nice catch :)
looks a splendid day over in France. Sunny and 80F or thereabouts in Paris (which is also enjoying northern europe’s record breaking mini heatwave of the last few days)
Looks like a beautiful day for racing.
I see they’ve rated the ground good at Longchamp
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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have had reporters out on the track
on our coverage. Good, getting slightly faster during the day, decent covering of grass, nice heavy dew this morning. Jockey comments etc say not really going to get to good to firm later
The North American pools for these international events really need to get cleaned up
The results take forever to finalize which delays the opening of the pools for the next race. Case in point, no odds or bets on the Foret yet since race 4 is not yet “official” in N.A.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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There we go...pools now open.
Let’s see where Goldikova is at over here.
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And there we go, first flash is 1/9 for Goldikova
It’s doesn’t help the pools when they don’t take any money until less than 10 minutes before post. Only $4,200 in the Win pool right now.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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Yeah, not much to bet on over here for this race
But looks like that just came up to 3/5
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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What a race.
Looks like Dream Ahead might have nipped Goldikova.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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yep - just gone down all guns blazing
Freddie Head been saying beforehand is a prep race and there is a little bit more to work on.
Winner won two G1 6f sprints last two races, and already the most promising G1 6f sprinter to come along for a while over here. (Though couldn’t get near Frankel at 2 or at Ascot)
(Dever Dream news not sounding good however)
Here's how bad the NA pools are
Dream Ahead went off at 40/1 over here. I’m guessing that wasn’t available in the UK.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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Whoops. That's wrong.
5/2…was looking at the wrong price. that makes more sense. Too early. Need coffee.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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Trainer's wife being interviewed
(trainer not at Longchamp). Big money deal has been done on the horse (before the race sounds like). Will be last time runs in sole ownership of current owner.
Speaking of Frankel
his form has held up quite well this year, hasn’t it? Lots of horses he’s beaten (demolished) have come back to run quite well later on.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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Very good ride.
Timed that move very nicely.
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I've been talking about that for quite a while
After our trip to England last April we talked about going over in the fall to try and hit the Arc. I’d like to try and do it next year if things work out.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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go for the jackpot
add on Prague (Velka Pardubice) the next weekend and then Ascot Champions Day the weekend after. Paris, Prague and London – great trip
that's a good question.
I didn’t pull the Timeform this year, one of the first Arc years that I didn’t get their form. So I’m not sure which horse they picked.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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So You Think taking all the play in the NA pools
5/2 right now. That should drift up a bit.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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Meandre taking a good amount of action in the US
Currently 9/2.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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by Matt Gardner on Oct 2, 2011 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Decent price on Sarafina over here at 6/1
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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Loading the gate.
Good luck everyone. Let’s have a safe one.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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Bugger it!
14/1 on PMU for previous winner is just too big to turn down (Been happily ignoring the 10/1) Small win bet placed even though dual winners very rare.
Sarafina, Meandre, Hiruno D’Amour shortening here, SYThink was drifting slightly but now shortening for late money
Paddock watchers say both fancied french fillies got a little warm in the paddock but nothing too worrying – one still tipping Sarafina. SYThink, Snow Fairy and Workforce all getting favourable paddock mentions.
wow, Treasure Beach...where you going?
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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Germany! Wow
Danedream at big odds of 25/1 in the US.
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Three year old filly takes it with ease
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BBC get the trainers comments just after the race
“It’s the greatest moment of my life in sport. Its fantastic . I dont believe it. She is so easy winner”
I didn't have Danedream but I love to see it.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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by Matt Gardner on Oct 2, 2011 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions
2:24.49 final time
Track record, apparently.
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If I heard that right on the tv.
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by Matt Gardner on Oct 2, 2011 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions
NA prices on TVG seem off:
$2 Ex: 3,799
$2 Trifecta: $94,049
$1 Pick 4: 1,586
$2 Double: 724
Those look a little funny to me. I wonder if they are pumping up the minimum bet amount to make the payout look larger. I seriously doubt there was 94K in the trifecta pool.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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Looking at Twinspires.com, it looks like TVG is overstating the payouts
The trifecta was offered as a .50 minimum bet which paid $23,512. Unless four people had it (which I find unlikely) the $94k payout is wrong.
The exacta was offered as a $1 bet.
This is a pet peeve of mine: show the payouts to the minimum bet amount.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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by Matt Gardner on Oct 2, 2011 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
I really hate it when they do that. Like with the 10cent pick six is inflated to 2 bucks or something. It’s infuriating.
Yeah, it's a big, big pet peeve of mine
I don’t mean to pick on Todd S. from TVG, but he was going on and on about the $94K trifecta when, in all likelihood, there was no $94k trifecta. There was a $24k tri…which is still good.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on Oct 2, 2011 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
photo between Announce and Nahrain
Cracking race – brilliant duel, even closer than Goldikova/Dream Ahead – too close to call but looks like Nahrain just
Nahrain wins
Arc day ends with a sentimental note. Trainer recently took over the licence from Michael Jarvis (after years as his assistant) who sadly died after a long illness last Tuesday, owned by the Jarvis’ biggest supporting owner. Good for them.
Brutal trip for Nahrain
Really got pinned down on the rail in the stretch. Good work by Frankie to get her up.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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by Matt Gardner on Oct 2, 2011 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Have I really been up for three hours?
It’s only 9am!
Time for a bike ride this morning to stretch out my legs. Only so much sitting I can do in a 48 hour period.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
For anyone interested in the Arc day splits
I’ll have a post up later today with the fractions for all of the Longchamp stakes races.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
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