Keeneland Quick Stats: Two-Turn Graded Stakes on the Poly

I finally got my super Keeneland database put together, which is a collection of every starter and result since the beginning of the Polytrack-era in the fall of 2006.  I'm a little pressed for time today so I'll have to dive into the numbers more in the future, but I wanted to highlight a couple of quick stats with respect to two-turn graded stakes races on the eve of the 2011 Fall meet.

Since the Fall 2006 meeting, there have 46 Graded stakes races contested at a mile or longer on the Polytrack surface.  Those 46 races have had 453 total starters. Of the total amount of starters, 92 are horses that have never started on a turf or synthetic surface, or roughly 20.3% of all starters.  Of those 92, only three have won and the total record for "dirt only" horses in those races is 92-3-9-10.

Those three winners were Great Hunter (G1-Breeders' Futurity; 5.80/1), Little Belle (G1-Ashland; 16.10/1), and Grilla (UAE Cup; 3.70/1). That UAE Cup is an Arabian race, so the numbers are actually even a bit worse. (If you take out the Arabian race, it's 87-2-9-9 for dirt only horses).

Furthermore, 11 dirt-only horses have gone off as the favorite in those 46 graded stakes races, and none have ever won.  The record for dirt-only horses that have gone off as the betting choice is 11-0-3-0.

While the Polytrack at Keeneland is fairer than you might think to dirt-only horses in many of the events (especially sprints), two-turn graded stakes races have seen those types of runners win less than their fair share.  Dirt-only horses make up 20% of the starters in two-turn graded stakes races, but only 6.5% of the winners. Conversely, horses with a start over turf and/or synthetic represent 79.7% of all starters (361), but 93.5% of all winners (43).

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join And Down The Stretch They Come

You must be a member of And Down The Stretch They Come to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at And Down The Stretch They Come. You should read them.

Join And Down The Stretch They Come

You must be a member of And Down The Stretch They Come to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at And Down The Stretch They Come. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.