Keeneland Quick Stats: Two-Turn Graded Stakes on the Poly
by Matt Gardner on Oct 6, 2011 6:17 PM EDT
in Keeneland
Email
PrintI finally got my super Keeneland database put together, which is a collection of every starter and result since the beginning of the Polytrack-era in the fall of 2006. I'm a little pressed for time today so I'll have to dive into the numbers more in the future, but I wanted to highlight a couple of quick stats with respect to two-turn graded stakes races on the eve of the 2011 Fall meet.
Since the Fall 2006 meeting, there have 46 Graded stakes races contested at a mile or longer on the Polytrack surface. Those 46 races have had 453 total starters. Of the total amount of starters, 92 are horses that have never started on a turf or synthetic surface, or roughly 20.3% of all starters. Of those 92, only three have won and the total record for "dirt only" horses in those races is 92-3-9-10.
Those three winners were Great Hunter (G1-Breeders' Futurity; 5.80/1), Little Belle (G1-Ashland; 16.10/1), and Grilla (UAE Cup; 3.70/1). That UAE Cup is an Arabian race, so the numbers are actually even a bit worse. (If you take out the Arabian race, it's 87-2-9-9 for dirt only horses).
Furthermore, 11 dirt-only horses have gone off as the favorite in those 46 graded stakes races, and none have ever won. The record for dirt-only horses that have gone off as the betting choice is 11-0-3-0.
While the Polytrack at Keeneland is fairer than you might think to dirt-only horses in many of the events (especially sprints), two-turn graded stakes races have seen those types of runners win less than their fair share. Dirt-only horses make up 20% of the starters in two-turn graded stakes races, but only 6.5% of the winners. Conversely, horses with a start over turf and/or synthetic represent 79.7% of all starters (361), but 93.5% of all winners (43).
4 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Seriously
How long did that take you and how big a spreadsheet is it?
by TFTribe on Oct 6, 2011 8:43 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
The spreadsheet is about 80 megs
And I’ve been working on it for a long while. Some of the data I got from Brisnet, which reduced a little bit of the data entry.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on Oct 7, 2011 12:52 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Today's G1 Alcibiades
The dirt-only horses (and their ML)
2-Flashy Lassie (8/1)
3-Venetian Sonata (20/1)
9-And Why Not (5/1)
10-Frolic’s Revenge (8/1)
12-Cheerleader (15/1)
13-Tavern On the Bay (50/1)
AE15-On Fire Baby (20/1)
And Why Not is the morning line favorite, but given how these kind of races treat horses that have never run over the surface, I’m not sure 5/1 is a great price. Some good MLs on horses experienced on turf/synthetic:
3-Venetian Sonata (20/1): 4th by 1 1/2 in the Arlington Washington Lassie
4-Tu Endie Wei (6/1): Easy double winner at Woodbine; stretching out for the first time
6-Egg Drop (8/1): nice looking Del Mar winner for Mike Mitchell/Joe Talamo
8-New Wave (6/1): Leparoux rides; broke maiden on Poly at AP, and ran well at Saratoga on the lawn last time out.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
An Alcibaides update...
seven of the fillies in this field were dirt-only, and none finished in the top 3.
Ken and Sarah Ramsey’s 7-Stephanie’s Kitten uses a late move down the middle to pass 11-Heart of Destiny for the win. 1-Putthebabiesdown was 3rd.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on And Down The Stretch They Come
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
