Breeders' Cup 2011: Figures and Facts (Updated)
by Matt Gardner on Nov 14, 2011 10:21 AM EST
in Breeders' Cup
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UPDATE: The Equibase numbers are now included in the charts.
A happy Monday to everyone out there. I hope your weekend was a good one and, if you were at the track, a profitable one. I didn't pick up a Form or turn on HRTV/TVG all weekend as I took a few days to re-charge the batteries a little bit after the hectic weeks leading up to the Breeders' Cup. Never fear, the vacation was short-lived and it's time to prepare for the long, cold season of winter racing.
There wasn't a whole lot of action on the racing calendar this past weekend but we've got a couple of Grade 1 races on the horizon. This Saturday the Hollywood Park will feature the Hollywood Turf Cup, followed by the Clark Handicap, Matriarch Stakes, Gazelle Stakes, Cigar Mile, and Hollywood Derby over Thanksgiving weekend. That should gets us back into the mix in fine fashion.
As kind of a final Breeders' Cup re-cap I went through and pulled the speed figures for all of this year's winners. I've got the Beyer and Bris figures but only could find an incomplete list for Equibase. [Thank you to Equibase for alerting me to the location of their numbers.] Below is a snapshot of the Beyer, Bris and Equibase figures for each 2011 Breeders' Cup winner, along with a second chart illustrating how each figure ranks under each system.
| Race | Surface | Winner | Beyer | Bris | Equibase |
| Classic | Dirt | Drosselmeyer | 104 | 110 | 116 |
| Dirt Mile | Dirt | Caleb's Posse | 111 | 110 | 114 |
| F&M Sprint | Dirt | Musical Romance | 98 | 106 | 101 |
| F&M Turf | Turf | Perfect Shirl | 99 | 100 | 112 |
| Juvenile | Dirt | Hansen | 94 | 103 | 108 |
| Juvenile Fillies | Dirt | My Miss Aurelia | 86 | 99 | 96 |
| Juvenile Fillies Turf | Turf | Stephanie's Kitten | 87 | 101 | 99 |
| Juvenile Sprint | Dirt | Secret Circle | 95 | 102 | 113 |
| Juvenile Turf | Turf | Wrote (IRE) | 88 | 104 | 107 |
| Ladies' Classic | Dirt | Royal Delta | 104 | 110 | 115 |
| Marathon | Dirt | Afleet Again | 95 | 98 | 109 |
| Mile | Turf | Court Vision | 103 | 108 | 111 |
| Sprint | Dirt | Amazombie | 107 | 110 | 128 |
| Tur Sprint | Turf | Regally Ready | 102 | 108 | 119 |
| Turf | Turf | St Nicholas Abbey (IRE) | 108 | 104 | 126 |
The second chart compares the speed figures against the other figures earned in order to rank them from highest to lowest, and as compared to each system.
| Race | Surface | Winner | BeyerRk | BrisRk | EquibRk |
| Dirt Mile | Dirt | Caleb's Posse | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Turf | Turf | St Nicholas Abbey (IRE) | 2 | 8 | 2 |
| Sprint | Dirt | Amazombie | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Classic | Dirt | Drosselmeyer | 4 | 1 | 4 |
| Ladies' Classic | Dirt | Royal Delta | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| Mile | Turf | Court Vision | 6 | 5 | 9 |
| Tur Sprint | Turf | Regally Ready | 7 | 5 | 3 |
| F&M Turf | Turf | Perfect Shirl | 8 | 13 | 8 |
| F&M Sprint | Dirt | Musical Romance | 9 | 7 | 13 |
| Marathon | Dirt | Afleet Again | 10 | 15 | 10 |
| Juvenile Sprint | Dirt | Secret Circle | 11 | 11 | 7 |
| Juvenile | Dirt | Hansen | 12 | 10 | 11 |
| Juvenile Turf | Turf | Wrote (IRE) | 13 | 8 | 12 |
| Juvenile Fillies Turf | Turf | Stephanie's Kitten | 14 | 12 | 14 |
| Juvenile Fillies | Dirt | My Miss Aurelia | 15 | 14 | 15 |
Both Beyer and Brisnet agree on which performance was the best for the entire weekend: Caleb's Posse in the Dirt Mile. That doesn't surprise me one bit because I thought that, visually, he was clearly the most impressive winner (although I think Royal Delta was right up there "visually"). However, Brisnet assigned exactly the same 110 figure for three other performances over the weekend, all of which were on dirt. Under their system, Amazombie (Sprint), Drosselmeyer (Classic), and Royal Delta (Ladies' Classic) performed at the same level as Caleb's Posse.
Beyer doesn't disagree that sharply with Bris on the rankings; Amazombie is ranked 3rd, and Drosselmeyer and Royal Delta are tied for 4th. Beyer has St. Nicholas Abbey (IRE) as the 2nd best performance of the weekend, while Bris only has it at #8.
Equibase has Amazombie as the top figure for the weekend, with St. Nicholas Abbey a close second. Caleb's Posse grabs spot #6.
Beyer, Bris and Equibase all pretty much agree on My Miss Aurelia, ranking her win in the Juvenile Fillies as one of the slowest of the weekend. Same thing goes for Stephanie's Kitten.
Marathon winner Afleet Again ranks last under Bris but a little higher under both Beyer and Equibase. I'm not sure how much stock to put into a speed figure for a 1 3/4 mile race when there is essentially zero sample size to compare against. About the only thing a figure maker can do is come up with a projection but that's even a challenge without any races to compare againt.
Another difference of opinion between the two systems is with Filly & Mare Turf winner Perfect Shirl. Beyer and Equibase both have that as the 8th best figure, while Bris ranks it 13th or 15. The figure for Wrote (IRE) in the Juvenile Turf reverses that conclusion.
While these figures are earned over two surfaces and a variety of distances, I think it's still interesting to see how different systems compare to one another. Overall, each speed figure system comes to roughly the same conclusions with varying differences in the details.
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I for one
am looking forward to the long cold racing season, because it means Turfway will be running for quite a while and I’ll get to take in some live racing. I don’t know the stats exactly or how/why it happens, but watch out for Turfway, outside posts in the winter meet. The last 2 or 3 years, it seems that the first few weeks of the winter meet the 10-12 hole hits the board a lot, and it’s not unusual to have some really nice prices attached to them. The first winter I thought it was just a fluke, but then it happened again last year. I don’t know what the deal is, but it seems like when it gets pretty cold here in Northern Kentucky, those outside posts do very well at Turfway.
That's definitely something to watch this winter.
I haven’t played Turfway during the winter the last couple of years but I think I’m going to add it back into the mix. Gulfstream and Tampa are my usual “go to’s” (although I didn’t play Tampa too much last winter), but Turfway would be a nice 3rd track to play since I like Polytrack races.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on Nov 14, 2011 1:53 PM EST up reply actions
Turfway
As long as I have the “mute” button, I’ll watch Turfway too. Not a fan of Mike. Can’t remember, whats the handle like nowadays?
Last year's Jan/April meet did something like $2 million a day.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on Nov 14, 2011 2:40 PM EST up reply actions
It was the weirdest
Thing. My grandpa and I would just sit there and laugh because at least 2 or 3 times a day it seemed like the 11 came in. If you would’ve bet the 11 in every race featuring 11 horses, you would’ve wound up winning a nice chunk of money. It doesn’t seem to play that way when it gets closer to spring, but for some reason December/January those posts seem to hit often. The short September meet doesn’t play that way either. I also noticed this year when we had bitter cold temps here, especially one weekend that was exceptionally cold this year, if you bet the speed horse you would win. Matt Caruthers was going nuts the one weekend. He’s like just look for the horse with the fastest opening quarter and bet it! Sure enough that whole weekend it seemed like the winning horse in every race was the one who ran out to the front early on.
I don’t know if the cold makes the poly at turfway play a certain way or what, but it just seems like especially when it’s cold, there are some strange trends the play out.
The cold weather makes some sense...
I know that at Del Mar, when they’ve had some really hot weather, that the Poly has tended to play different, as does the Tapeta surface in Dubai. I would guess that if heat can cause the track to play different, that the cold could do the same.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on Nov 15, 2011 2:24 PM EST up reply actions
No kidding, right?
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on Nov 16, 2011 10:12 AM EST up reply actions
Poly is inconsistent when looked at over an entire year, for sure
There is no doubt that different tracks act completely differently depending on the season. I know our trainer was talking about Del Mar being a different surface entirely when they run their summer meet than any other synthetic track in the nation.
Yeah, Del Mar seems to be the one that has the most issues depending on weather.
I’m guessing it’s due to the combination of heat in San Diego during the summer, and the cool, moist ocean air in the mornings. I know there is a lot of talk as to the fact that Del Mar is much, much different in the mornings than it is in the afternoon.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on Nov 16, 2011 10:14 AM EST up reply actions
Did Equibase Seek You Out...
to tell you where to find their numbers, or did you contact them? You be flattered if it was the former…it means people are reading your (awesome, and under-appreciated) site!
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
They dropped me an email and let me know,..
which was pretty cool. I felt a little dumb because I couldn’t find the numbers (I’ve been on their site plenty of times) but I was happy to get an email letting me know where they were.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on Nov 16, 2011 10:12 AM EST up reply actions
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