BREEDERS' CUP 2011: Friday Results And Open Thread
by Matt Gardner on Nov 4, 2011 10:43 AM EDT
in Breeders' Cup
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PrintThis is your 2011 Breeders' Cup Friday open thread. First post on today's Churchill Downs card is 2pm Eastern, with the first Breeders' Cup race scheduled to run at 4:10pm.
You can find a running tally of all the results at the link below.
2011 Breeders' Cup Entries and Results
| Race# | Post Time | TV | Race | Winner |
| 2 | 4:10 / 1:10 | ESPN2 | Juvenile Sprint | Secret Circle |
| 3 | 4:50 / 1:50 | ESPN2 | Juvenile Fillies Turf | Stephanie's Kitten |
| 4 | 5:30 / 2:30 | ESPN2 | Filly & Mare Sprint | Musical Romance |
| 5 | 6:10 / 3:10 | ESPN2 | Juvenile Fillies | My Miss Aurelia |
| 6 | 6:50 / 3:50 | ESPN2 | Filly & Mare Turf | Perfect Shirl |
| 7 | 7:30 / 4:30 | ESPN2 | Ladies' Classic | Royal Delta |
It looks like it's going to be a wet one at Churchill Downs today. Here are the scratches and changes, as of 12:00pm Eastern:
Main Track: Muddy
Turf Course: Yielding; Lane 1, on the hedge
Juvenile Sprint: No Changes
Juvenile Fillies Turf: Scratch AE15-Bourbonstreetgirl, AE16-Karlovy Vary
Filly & Mare Sprint: No Changes
Juvenile Fillies: No Changes
Filly & Mare Turf: No Changes
Ladies' Classic: Scratch 9-Medaglia d'Amour; 5-Ask the Moon will not race with Lasix/Salix
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Sloppy track...ugh
You’d think someone from Seattle would love handicapping races over wet tracks, but I always find it fairly challenging. I’m hoping CD dries out a bunch before the Juve Sprint.
Tomorrow’s forecast looks decent (fingers crossed).
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Yeah, I think that's one of the big challenges the Breeders' Cup faces
As I’ve written before, I was out at Monmouth Park for the 2007 cup and the weather made everything just awful.
Hopefully it clears up today.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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by Matt Gardner on Nov 4, 2011 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, that's definitely the issue
When Gulfstream was still big enough it provided another warm weather option, but both Churchill and New York are a bit of a crap shoot with weather this time of year. Last year it was pretty nice. A little rain on Friday, but Saturday was perfect. Cool, but perfect.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on Nov 4, 2011 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Current Louisville radar...
Rain just sitting over the city right now. Link
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on Nov 4, 2011 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Hell
We’re even under threat of rain today in Los Angeles. It’d be only the 2nd time it’s rained in about 6 months.
I wish I could say the same in my neck of the woods.
Although the last two days have been nice. A little cool, but nice.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on Nov 4, 2011 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
This Sucks
While you guys get to have fun and lose tons of cash.. I’m stuck at work making tons of cash.
..Trust me.. I’d rather be losing.
Have fun.. Best of Luck and I’ll see you guys tommorrow.
Will do.
Working today just means you’re banking more cash for tomorrow!
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on Nov 4, 2011 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Main track changed from "Sloppy" to "Muddy"
The rain seems to have moved past Louisville which will hopefully allow the track to dry over the next few hours.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
EMD
At EMD didnt realize so many peeps would get here so early!
by Sti1gar on Nov 4, 2011 1:33 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Oh yeah. Derby day is the same thing. Get's crowded.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Yeah, that would be cool. The more, the merrier.
That’s a new widget on each site that lists the top 8 or 9 topisc of the day/week. The BC link takes you to the Story Stream at SBNation.com that I’ve been updating this week.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
P5
1: 1.3.5.6.8
2: 1,9
3: 3,4,5
4: 4,5,8
5: 6
by Sti1gar on Nov 4, 2011 1:50 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Nice. Starting off with a bang right out of the gate.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Heading to the gate for the first race of the day.
Main track still ‘muddy’.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Track looks pretty quick.
1st race splits:
21.61
45.35
56.93
1:09.52
Very quick for a group of OCs in the mud.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
That was quick..
Rothco appears pretty talented though. Interested if any track biases appear early…
True. But you never really know how these muddy tracks play until they run a few races.
It seems that sometimes they are really glib and sometimes they are really, really tiring. The first race seems to suggest that it’s not tiring today at CD. At least not right now.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Are you following @TrakusRacing on twitter?
Providing interesting info now that CD has it installed.
I am
They’ve got some pretty cool data. Gulfstream will have it this winter, as well.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
I like the 1 in this 2nd race
Decent price at 4/1, handled the trip and the mud last time at BEL.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Which is strange...
Because in the first race, the 3 made a big move on the rail in the last furlong.
The opening half mile went in 46.68. The last half mile in 51.32.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Well, the 2nd race was a contrast to the first.
They didn’t go all that fast in the open part of the race, but walked home in the stretch. Final 1/8th of a mile in 13.46.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Like the 5 in the 3rd
Looking for someone to come from off the pace.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
p4
Good thing I left money home 4 tomorrow!
3: 3,4,5
4: 4,5,8
5: 6
6: 2,4,5,6,10,14
by Sti1gar on Nov 4, 2011 2:53 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
That last race was tough. Kind of fell apart at the end.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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That's never fun.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
True
All depends on how you look at it!
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
When the Juv Fillies Turf is run
it will give the track over an hour to dry with no racing over it.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Well, I've got them on top in both race
so probably doesn’t change anything for me, but makes me like them a bit more.
Also, what we call “Yielding” over here, is essentially what they call “Good” in Europe. So the course should be just like they want it, as opposed to last year when it was a lot harder.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Ta for this
what we call "Yielding" over here, is essentially what they call "Good" in Europe.
most helpful.
(Adding – Evening everybody – best of luck with the punting for the next two days)
Good evening and good luck to you.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Emerald uses Wet/Fast sometimes.
but, you’re right, I don’t think we see it a lot.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Leparoux, as usual.
He’s off to a nice start at CD this fall.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Looks like a decent day in New York
The sun is out a the Big A.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Value
I think there is a ton of value in this 4th race here, Should set up well for closers.
by Sti1gar on Nov 4, 2011 3:19 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
It sure looks like it with all the speed in here.
I like the 11 a bit in this spot for a Leparoux double.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Jebrica
Off topic, but Jebricas bout to run at GG this is a good test against some good older horses.
Zayda ran last the othe r day at Turf Paradise
by Sti1gar on Nov 4, 2011 3:24 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I'm guessing Fast Bullet is going to be a late scratch?
Sounded like he got a little edgy in the gate.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Yep, Fast Bullet late scratch.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Ah, 2nd.
Couldn’t get by Borel. Of course, the scratch of Fast Bullet killed the odds on the 11.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
The two sprints were pretty fast.
And the two races at a mile and a mile and a sixteenth were fairly pedestrian. Track seems fair.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Secret Circle 1/5 in early betting for the Juv. Sprint.
With about $300k in the win pool.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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got to beat that
Sum Of The Parts / Elusive Kate – Double
Never trust a man who doesn't drink.
by Noir Jim Tressel on Nov 4, 2011 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I like that play.
Nice will-pays for that combo.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
One time.....
3,7,9 to 6 horses in the next race.
by Sti1gar on Nov 4, 2011 4:00 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Lot's of options in this race if you don't like the chalk.
Several horse with wet track exp. and plenty of speed to go around.
Gonna stay with 9-Vexor in this spot.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Hey, there's Hammerin' Hank on ESPN!
Now all we need is Mutton Chops and Breeders’ Cup weekend is complete.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
I miss Kegasus. May he recover in time for the 3rd Saturday in May.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Currently a little over $1 mil in the Pick 6 pool with 4 MTP
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
That's track is really wearing them down in the stretch.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
But they were massively fast in the opening quarter...sub :21
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Stepahnie's Kitten takes a lot of play
12/1 on the ML, 9/2 on the board. Ken Ramsey must be betting her hard.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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Baffert knows speed, doesn't he?
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
That rail run by Shumoos...
is the second time today we’ve seen a horse make up big ground in the final furlongs on the rail. It happened in the first race, also at six furlongs.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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got to be Elusive Kate here right?
Im only playin euros on the turf
Never trust a man who doesn't drink.
by Noir Jim Tressel on Nov 4, 2011 4:40 PM EDT reply actions
She fits well against this group
I like Somali Lemonade a lot but hate that draw.
The 12-Dear Lavinia is interesting at a price – the horse that beat her two back just returned to win a group stakes in France last weekend.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
I think it's alot dryer on the back stretch.
Seems odd. Hopefully it’s drying out quick.
by TFTribe on Nov 4, 2011 4:46 PM EDT via iPhone app reply actions
It seems to be..
and with this break in-between races to run on the turf course, I would think it will be pretty dry for the F&M Sprint.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Good for Ken and Sarah Ramsey
Nice win for them. The stud fee just went up for Kitten’s Joy.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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No kidding.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
JP had that
6-1 nice
Never trust a man who doesn't drink.
by Noir Jim Tressel on Nov 4, 2011 5:00 PM EDT reply actions
Thanks!
I generally favor horses that have good closing numbers that aren’t in either of the early or middle pace figs. Stephanie’s Kitten fit that to a T. That score balanced a lot of my day….
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
A little change goes into JP's pocket. Nice.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Not Enough!
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
I've been talking about that
Horse for a darn week and didn’t have her bet strait up. I did a super and missed. I love the Ramsey’s and that article I linked the other day is an even better story now that Stephanie’s Kitten won the Race.
I like the fact that Ken Ramseys has no intention of selling Kitten’s Joy too. He seems to keep a lot of the foals out of Kitten’s Joy too, but it’s good to see a family love the horses and not only the money associated with it. Although, I guess they probably make a fortune still.
Now, I have to throw money at Dean’s Kitten Tomorrow or I’ll never forgive myself if he hits the board and I’m not in on it lol.
Aw man. That's tough.
Great run by that filly.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
I kind of shied away a little
When I saw 5-1. I was plannin on 10WPS if she was 12-1 or better, I saw 5-1 and thought maybe I Somali Lemonade would’ve been a better bet at similar odds. D’oh.
Happy she won though!
p4
7: 3,6,10,12
8: 2,4,5,9,10,11
9: 1,2,5,6
10: 1,6,7,8
DEEP
by Sti1gar on Nov 4, 2011 5:07 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
You and JP should have gone in on a big exacta.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
JP Great read
Yesterday on the dime super plays. I’ve been doing great yesterday and today with your first strategy. I’ve hit a 100, 86, and a couple small ones, had some near misses too. Gave me the bank roll to play a race at Santa Anita yesterday hit a tri for 480 and an exacta for 98. Just missed a 500 dime super in the same race.
Thank you, Bt....
I like everyone that comes to this blog, so I thought it worth sharing. I am glad it is working for you. The payoffs really can get amped up if you choose 10-1 or longer as a key, and at least one 20-1 or longer in your string of 3Horses….
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Losing Streaks Will Be Longer That Way, too...
so maybe stick with whatever you are doing! I am the type that is always chasing a serious score.
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Champagne D'Oro
Any chance she hits the board here? I’ve loved this horse for a long time and last time she was 39-1 in a stakes race I somehow missed the race she was in and she WON.
She should improve on the cut back in distance
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
I'm going to include her
She’s a horse that I’ve always loved and when I bet her she loses and ignore her she wins lol.
At 20/1...if you like her, bet her.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
I don't have a lot of good ideas in this race.
I’m going to play Tar Heel Mom at a price for a small amount.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Just flashed the Pick 4 pool on the screen
Looks like about $1.3 mill with 5 MTP.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
goin with Switch here.
got to right the ship…
Never trust a man who doesn't drink.
by Noir Jim Tressel on Nov 4, 2011 5:29 PM EDT reply actions
late scratch
13-Shotgun Gulch
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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And that's why I put only a little on this race.
Man, these sprints kill me.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Switch ran big. I had her last year in that race
when she finished 2nd. That was a better result than my pick this year!
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
3/1 on My Miss Aurelia?
Kind of surprised by that. Thought she’d get bet down a bunch more. Still 20 MTP.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Miss Netta
normally, when i find my self diggin a hole, i put down the shovel. not today! one hit will fix everything Miss Netta!
Never trust a man who doesn't drink.
by Noir Jim Tressel on Nov 4, 2011 5:56 PM EDT reply actions
I gonna go with Grace Hall in this
as I like her two-turn experience, although I think My Miss Aurelia is going to have it pretty easy on the fronted unless Awesome Belle decides to really put pressure on her.
I’d love to see Weemissfrankie win this.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
I got to throw Say A Novena in here someplace
given her wet track form and price.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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The Juvenile Fillies continues its historical trend of low priced winners
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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I originally liked Misty for Me but I'm more on Nahrain now
Except that The Hammer just picked her.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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Announce at 6/1 is quite nice.
Her and Nahrain were separated by a nose in their last start but Nahrain is 7/2 while she’s 6/1.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Okay, that doesn't look good for Announce
Very rank on the track.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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And now she's scratched out.
Announced is a scratch
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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Scratched due to a scratch
Bummer. But better safe than sorry.
@HankThrasher
by Hank Thrasher on Nov 4, 2011 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Not even close, my friend.
Had the runner-up and the show horse…as usual.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Royal Delta at 8/5 on the board
Plum Pretty 3/1. It’s Trickey 9/2. A closely bunched group.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Impressive.
Royal Delta in-hand at the wire.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Nearly a very special day for me.
But in the end, just did ok, mainly thanks to Stephanie’s Kitten.
@troycarson
BLargh
Not a great day handicapping wise for me, but I’ll live to fight another day :) Happy that no horses broke down, and I hope everyone came out of the race great :) those are always the most imortant details to me.
Wasn’t able to pick out the longshots today, But we will give it a go tomorrow, the fam and I are going to be at the track for the buffet bright and early!
All-in-all....
another one of those days. 3-of-4 in the super three times, and hit the last, but with 2-1 on top, so it paid me back an impressive 58 bucks.
I am still kind of stewing about how horrible Martin Garcia’s ride on Harmonious was. He wanted to go at the end of the backstretch and Garcia held him back. The horse certainly would not have won, but he might have come in fourth or better, which is all I would have cared about for a key! Still, I shouldn’t complain: five of seven keys hit the board for me.
Here’s to all the horses and jockeys working safely today.
Bring on tomorrow!
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Good first day.
Time to dive back into the Form. See everyone again tomorrow!
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
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