Monday Thoughts: Gulfstream, Japan, and Kentucky Derby Future Odds
by Matt Gardner on Dec 5, 2011 12:47 PM EST
in Kentucky Derby
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I was out of town again this past weekend visiting some friends back in the Midwest, so I missed opening day at Gulfstream and Tampa Bay Downs. The early opening of Gulfstream still seems a little out of place to me; I'm used to gearing up for Gulfstream right after Christmas.
While I was sitting in O'Hare for a five hour layover I was thinking that an airport OTB would be a very nice option. What I should have done is jumped in a cab and gone over to the Arlington Park OTB, bet a few races, and then hurried back over to O'Hare in time for my connecting flight. Oh, the trials and tribulations of a horse player!
Some random thoughts on this Monday morning:
- I'm going to attempt to track the Gulfstream $0.50 Pick 5 payouts again this meet, hopefully the pool, carryover, and payout information will be easier to follow this meet as opposed to last year. I'll have a link to a tracking spreadsheet in the next couple of days.
- Transcend followed in the footsteps of Japan Cup winner Buena Vista (JPN) by repeating in the 2012 Japan Dirt Cup this past weekend. [Buena Vista crossed the finish line first in 2010 but was DQ'd, and then finished first again in 2011.]
- Weemissfrankie, third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies last month at Churchill Downs, will run in Saturday's Grade 1 Starlet Stakes at Hollywood Park.
- The race book at the Wynn Las Vegas has updated their future book for the 2012 Kentucky Derby, always a fun exercise when we are over five months away from the race. Breeders' Cup Juvenile runner-up Union Rags tops the future book at odds of 8/1, down from his opening line of 60/1. The horse that beat him in the Juvenile, Hansen, sits in the second spot at odds of 18/1, down from an opening of 250/1.
Of course, given how far out from the Derby we are right now, and the difficult path ahead for the majority of horses to even make to Louisville on the first Saturday in May, future books tend to skew more towards those horses that appear likely to just make the starting gate. The top three on the list - Union Rags, Hansen, and Creative Cause - all have a good amount of graded earnings and are in good position to make the Derby, provided they move forward in 2012. Additionally, Delta Jackpot winner Sabercat, well down the list at 75/1, has earned plenty of money to get him in the Derby.
Bob Baffert's Drill is currently at 75/1 at the Wynn, odds that seem too low to me for a horse that still hasn't shown he can win on a conventional dirt surface.
Below is a snapshot of the horses on the future book that have seen movement in their odds in the last several weeks. You can view the complete list at Brisnet.
| Horse | Open | 11/28 |
| Union Rags | 60/1 | 8/1 |
| Hansen | 250/1 | 18/1 |
| Creative Cause | 125/1 | 20/1 |
| Gemologist | 150/1 | 25/1 |
| Ever So Lucky | 125/1 | 35/1 |
| El Padrino | 250/1 | 35/1 |
| Secret Circle | 150/1 | 35/1 |
| Fire On Ice | 50/1 | 40/1 |
| Hierro | 225/1 | 50/1 |
| Consortium | 75/1 | 50/1 |
| Liaison | 275/1 | 50/1 |
| So Brilliant | 300/1 | 50/1 |
| O'Prado Again | 200/1 | 50/1 |
| Timely Tally | 250/1 | 60/1 |
| Alpha | 50/1 | 75/1 |
| Festive Spirit | 175/1 | 75/1 |
| Dullahan | 200/1 | 75/1 |
| Motor City | 350/1 | 75/1 |
| Sabercat | 350/1 | 75/1 |
| Unbridlers Note | 150/1 | 75/1 |
| Currency Swap | 100/1 | 85/1 |
| Dabirsim | 125/1 | 85/1 |
| Drill | 150/1 | 85/1 |
| Stat | 175/1 | 85/1 |
| Take Charge Indy | 150/1 | 85/1 |
| Da Vinci | 125/1 | 100/1 |
| Optimizer | 225/1 | 100/1 |
| Clearly A Cowboy | 225/1 | 125/1 |
| Casual Trick | 300/1 | 125/1 |
| My Adonis | 325/1 | 125/1 |
| My Miss Aurelia | 125/1 | 125/1 |
| Rousing Sermon | 300/1 | 125/1 |
| Majestic City | 225/1 | 150/1 |
| Maritimer | 275/1 | 150/1 |
| Souper Speedy | 300/1 | 150/1 |
| Stirred up | 275/1 | 150/1 |
| Tritap | 250/1 | 150/1 |
| Shared Property | 400/1 | 175/1 |
| Power | 250/1 | 175/1 |
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Royal Delta
DRF is reporting that Royal Delta is pointing towards the Dubai World Cup, with a likely prep at Gulfstream. Crazy. O_O
That is a bit of a crazy move...
but she has run well over synthetic tracks in the past (Keeneland in April of 2011) so perhaps they think she can run big at Meydan. Still, it was surprising to read that they are targeting the World Cup.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Gotta love it though....
Succeed or fail, I love crazy rich owners who just go for it~!
Definitely...
and if they think she will run big on the Tapeta surface it’s not that crazy of a move. She’s got enough speed to run up near the front in the early stages and, as we saw last year, horses near the front are really tough to pass at Meydan. The World Cup has been a much more strategic race the last couple of years due to the synthetic surface.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on Dec 6, 2011 11:41 AM EST up reply actions
I Love The Airport OTB Idea....
why hasn’t someone done that? Integrate it with a bar, and other sports on other screens and it is a no-brainer.
Came in 34th in the Keenleand Contest….still pissed about it because in the last race I took the wrong Richard Scherer horse…his 17-1 ran fourth, while his 48-1 wired!
By the way….went to Turfway the next day or the tourney which quite possibly has the strangest format I have ever encountered…I wouldn’t recommend it if you are used to the NHC format.
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
...and that 48-1...
by the way was not illogical. He was only 12-1 on the morning line.
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Have you been to Arizona before and seen their OTBs/sports bars?
It’s really cool. I was down in Peoria for Mariners spring training a few years ago with my father, the sports bar across the street from the Mariners/Padres facility is a huge sports bar (McDuffy’s) with one side of it being a psudo-OTB. You can by a form, there is a betting window, and the flat screens have five or six different tracks on (along with college bball). It was fantastic.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Kentucky Derby Futures Questions
Hi. I’m thinking about a new way of cashing in on a long shot – the Kentucky Derby Future Bets (KDFB) Window 1 is Feb 10 – 12. I can use a little help, please: 1) Can I placea wager at the local OTB? The staff isn’t sure. 2) I’ve got a friend going to Vegas. Can they place a KDFB only at Winn’s or do other sports books take the wager also? 3) Any info on a horse named Easton Jack? I’ve got an uncle by that name and I’m liking 400-1. Thanks.
Experience to extremes
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