Weekend Stakes Preview (Updated)

by Matt Gardner on Feb 11, 2011 6:26 PM EST in Handicapping

UPDATE: Current changes can be found at the links below

Golden Gate
Gulfstream
Tampa
Santa Anita

ORIGINAL POST: Tampa Bay Downs and Golden Gate Fields get into the three-year-old stakes action this weekend with their first two graded Derby preps of the season. Below is a summary of the graded action on tap for this weekend, along with a closer look at a few of the races on tap.

Date	Race	Gr.	Track	Age/Sex	Dist.	Surf.
2/12/2011	Robert B. Lewis Stakes	2	SA	3yo	9.0	Dirt
2/12/2011	Sam F. Davis Stakes	3	TAM	3yo	8.5	Dirt
2/12/2011	El Camino Real Derby	3	GG	3yo	9.0	Poly
2/12/2011	Santa Maria Stakes	2	SA	4up, f&m	8.5	Dirt
2/12/2011	GP Sprint Chmpshp.	2	GP	4up	7.0	Dirt
2/12/2011	Endeavor	3	TAM	4up, f&m	8.5	Turf
2/13/2011	LaCanada	2	SA	4yo	9.0	Dirt
2/13/2011	Hurricane Bertie	3	GP	4up	6.5	Dirt

Grade 3 Sam F. Davis

Brethren (5/2) hasn't done anything wrong in the first two efforts of his career and he didn't have the best of trips in either one. He was away a bit slow when breaking his maiden at Belmont and he took the wide route to victory when winning an N1X at Churchill. The Sam F. Davis is his first taste of graded stakes company but he seems poised to step up to the challenge.

Monzon (3/1) appears to be a bit of a wildcard in this spot; his win in the Count Fleet, when he rallied from ten lengths back to score by a length at the wire, was far and away the best race of his young career. Some horses really take to the inner at Aqueduct so we'll have to see how he'll handle what can be a quirky Tampa main track.

A Maryland-bred son of Thunder Gulch, Monzon should be right at home at two-turns and he's certainly had a good amount of education in his previous six starts. He's got a shot to prove he's the real deal.

Carl Nafzger's Beamer (5/1) finished over twelve lengths back in his most recent effort but no one in that field got near runaway winner Soldat on that day. Soldat racked up a 103 Beyer after winning by ten lengths at the wire.

Beamer already owns a win over the Tampa main track (MSW on 12/30) and at two turn, and he could be a good fit in this spot.

Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis

Comma to the Top is expected to scratch from this field and run at Golden Gate Fields in the El Camino Real Derby, leaving 4-Tapizar (4/5) as the undisputed king of the Lewis. Tapizar began his career with a couple of weak maiden efforts at Monmouth Park before finally putting things together at Churchill in late November in a 10 ½ length score over maiden specials at a mile and a sixteenth. Steve Asmussen then shipped him to SoCal where he proceeded to validate that maiden breaking win with an easy-as-they-come score in the Grade 3 Sham on January 15^th. If he matches that performance in this spot he'll be awfully tough to beat.

There's a bunch of speed in the Lewis field, even with the expected defection of Comma to the Top. 1-Wegner (10/1), Tapizar, 5-Ten Devils (6/1), 6-Riveting Reason (4/1) and 7-Quail Hill (20/1) all prefer to up front in the early stages, something that should ensure another solid pace on the Santa Anita main track. If we were at any other track the potential for a hot and contested pace would be a major factor in determining the winner. I'm not so certain that will be the case at the current Santa Anita meet where speed is king. Tapizar set fractions of 22.62 and 22.63 in his last effort...and drew off easily. He's also shown the ability to sit just off the pace which presents Gomez a lot of options in the early stages.

Grade 2 Santa Maria

The last time we saw 1-St Trinians (GB) (8/5) she was all out to try and hold off Zenyatta in the Grade 1 Vanity, ultimately coming up a ½ length short in her quest. That race took place in June, after which St Trinians took an extended vacation, only returning to the track for morning works in early January. Mike Mitchell crushes with layoff horses (28-for-100, 28% $3.62 $2 ROI) but he doesn't use that move very often with stakes runners (0-for-3, 66% ITM). St Trinians looks the best of the bunch but I'm hoping she'll be a bit below par first time off the bench and will try to beat her with one of her rivals.

I'll stay away from 5-Zardana (BRZ) (5/1) as I don't care for the layoff and the running style in this spot, and I've got too many questions around 3-Washington Bridge's (5/2) ability on dirt to jump in with both feet. So where does that leave me? Not much. Not much at all.

7-It Tiz (12/1) didn't fare too well in her first try on dirt (5^th in the Grade 1 LaBrea on 12/26) but I'm willing to cut her a bit of slack in that one. First, she'll get a bit more ground in this race, which I think will help her greatly. Second, she went up against a pretty nice sprinter in the LeBrea, Switch, a filly that's put together a fantastic start to 2011. The strength of that race is even more apparent when you consider that the 4th place filly Always a Princess, came back to win the Grade 2 El Encino next time out.

It Tiz has the tactical speed to get into this race in the early stages and her busy start to 2011 might give her a bit of a fitness edge over some of her tougher rivals. I'll take It Tiz at anything over 10/1.

Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby

1-Comma to the Top's (6/5) likely scratch from the Lewis leaves him the one to beat at Golden Gate Fields, a track he's already won over twice before in his career. The Peter Miller trainee has won five in a row since his 6^th place finish in the Del Mar Futurity, including wins in the G3 Generous and the G1 CashCall Futurity.

Silver Medallion and Positive Response have run decently in their recent starts, but I like Jerry Hollendorfer's 6-Jakesam (8/1) if anyone is going to pull the upset. The Smoke Glacken colt has a tough task in this spot since he'll likely be challenged for the lead by Comma to the Top in the early going. He draws outside of that rival and perhaps he can apply enough pressure to Comma to get him to crack. It's unlikely but it's the best shot he's going to have.

Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Sprint Championship

Morning Line favorite 1-Soaring Empire (8/5) has only tried six furlongs once in his career, an allowance race at Gulfstream last February where he won by ¾ of a length. This colt hasn't shown a ton of speed in his other sprint races something that might be the only weakness in the armor of this deserving favorite. The turn back in distance, however, probably ensures that he'll have plenty in the tank to run down the leaders inside the final furlongs.

There's a lot to like with 3-Coffee Boy (6/1) but Marty Wolfson is another trainer that is great with 180+ day layoffs until you look specifically at graded stakes races, then he's a paltry 0-for-3. I'll pass on Coffee Boy until I he gets on under his belt. Wolfson, however, has as second entry in this race: 2-Gaucho (8/1), a Ghostzapper colt that's put in some decent sprint efforts against OC company over the last half of 2010. If I'm looking for an upset, I'll probably lean in the direction of Gaucho.

7-Tackleberry (3/1) got things all his own way in the Sunshine Millions Classic, something that is unlikely to happen in this spot. At 3/1 on the morning line he seems like a bit of an underlay.

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Comments

Offtopic but....

Did you see this years stakes schedule at EmD? How many years until the Longacres Mile loses its g3?

I went down on tuesday and watched some of the horses at the track, it was fun to see just how excited they were to be out there on the track. Also Quartershoot Cafe always great value :)

The only horses I was able to recognize on the track, was the ones I overheard people talking about lol.

by Sti1gar on Feb 11, 2011 6:37 PM EST reply actions

I did see the schedule...

and I’ve got a post on Emerald in the hopper that I need to complete this weekend.

I think the Mile is safe as a Grade 3 right now. The purse reduction to 200k is too bad but it’s understandable given current economic conditions and handle. The race might not have a national draw but it’s still an important race in the northwest and the recent winners have put up pretty decent performances. Field sizes have been good, as well. As long as those conditions persist, I think it’s fine as a Grade 3.

If the graded stakes committee decided to reduce the number of graded races in the U.S., then that status might be in jeopardy. But I don’t see that happening in the near future.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace

by Matt Gardner on Feb 11, 2011 6:56 PM EST up reply actions

Looks Like A Good Weekend Of Racing...

Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.

by JP Fanshawe on Feb 12, 2011 8:39 AM EST reply actions

Should be a good one

I love this time of the year…seems like slow build every weekend towards better and better racing.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace

by Matt Gardner on Feb 12, 2011 12:22 PM EST up reply actions

Tackleberry & Brethren & Comma

I expect a big bounce from Tackleberry today but that’s just how racing goes. He’s coming back pretty quick from the Sunshine Millions.

With Brethren I am expecting big things today – I hope it’s an impressive win stretching it out.

Comma to the Top should win easily and after that I think there will be a lot of print about Comma and Uncle Mo heading into the major preps.

Until we see Uncle Mo post a dominate performance at 1 1/18 I think it’s still wide-open on May 7 for an improving, lightly raced youngster to post a win.

by Swale on Feb 12, 2011 9:34 AM EST reply actions

What do you think of Tapizar?

I like him a bit more than Comma at this point and it seems like he’s just starting to figure things out.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace

by Matt Gardner on Feb 12, 2011 12:23 PM EST up reply actions

I like Tapizar much more than Comma.

I think Comma is distance limited. Tapizar is starting to figure things out and should annihilate this field. He will probably rate a little bit off Riveting Reason in this one, should be good experience for him, but I think he romps.

The Angels physically disgust me.

by RA Dickey on Feb 12, 2011 1:51 PM EST up reply actions

Agreed, I think the upside for Tapizar is higher at this point...

I don’t see him losing unless one of the others steps up to run a huge race.

I’m curious to see Ten Devils try dirt for the first time. If he’s like his sire, Rock Hard Ten, it might take him a while to develop.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace

by Matt Gardner on Feb 12, 2011 2:00 PM EST up reply actions

Uh, I would like to retract my Tapizar hype......

The Angels physically disgust me.

by RA Dickey on Feb 12, 2011 7:32 PM EST up reply actions

I may consider

Throwing a few bucks on Wegner for no other reason than Baffert has been hot so far. Obviously, he doesn’t look like the best horse in the field, and I’m not talking betting the rent on him, but maybe a 5 WPS or something like that.

by btalbert29 on Feb 12, 2011 1:40 PM EST reply actions

Off topic

Because that’s what I do, but I looked over Turfway’s entries again for the weekend and once again no Kitten’s Dancer! I saw a couple allowances and though she’s definitely going to race. Nope. I really have a feeling they are going to put her in an allowance at Turfway and however that goes possibly a stakes at Keenland. At any rate, I hope she runs soon. Win or Lose then I can quit talking about her! lol.

by btalbert29 on Feb 12, 2011 1:43 PM EST reply actions

I was going to ask...

do you think they might be waiting for Keeneland in order to get her on the grass, since she’s by Kitten’s Joy.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace

by Matt Gardner on Feb 12, 2011 1:56 PM EST up reply actions

Could be

She was really impressive to me in that first race because she broke poorly then came back and blew them all away. She obviously was better than a typical Turfway claimer. I thought they may run her once more here then maybe something at Keenland. I could be way ahead of myself here, and she may not be anywhere near the level of competition, but I was wondering if it’s possible they’ll up her to an allowance, do a stakes at Keenland and possibly try the Oaks. I guess only 3 career starts is probably too green for a race like that. Again, I’m way ahead of myself there, but if she were to end up on that path, the odds would be huge. Again, I’m sure that’s not what they are looking to do, but I think they must think she’s meant for more than Turfway

by btalbert29 on Feb 12, 2011 2:16 PM EST reply actions

Trainer intent

It’s always a challenge to try and figure out what trainers have planned for horses that we take note of.

It would seem that he’s either shopping for a very specific race/condition at Turfway or he’s got something else in mind for this fully.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace

by Matt Gardner on Feb 12, 2011 2:40 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

"filly"

I don’t know how these kids type on these smartphones….I must be gettin’ old.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace

by Matt Gardner on Feb 12, 2011 2:41 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Washington's Rules

2 MTP and WR is surprisingly the top taker in the PLACE pool, but Monzo is who ppl like in the bottom of the exacta.

Should be interesting.

by Swale on Feb 12, 2011 4:58 PM EST reply actions

Sam Davis

Not playing it, but I see 10/3/9/8

by Swale on Feb 12, 2011 5:00 PM EST reply actions

We'll see who steps up.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace

by Matt Gardner on Feb 12, 2011 5:03 PM EST up reply actions

Very nice by Brethren

it was over on the turn.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace

by Matt Gardner on Feb 12, 2011 5:05 PM EST reply actions

Brethren

that was just beautiful to watch.

by Swale on Feb 12, 2011 5:06 PM EST reply actions

10f

I don’t see 1 1/4 being a big problem for Brethren – he was just taking a strollin the park there today.

by Swale on Feb 12, 2011 5:07 PM EST reply actions

I wouldn't think so

Seems like he had a lot left in the tank and he seems like he’ll rate very nicely in the early stages.

It’s nice to see some of these preps won by horses with good performance rather than the blanket finishes where no one wanted to win last year.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace

by Matt Gardner on Feb 12, 2011 5:08 PM EST up reply actions

Pletcher wasn’t even there.

I love that he’s only run 3 races. If they can just keep him to 1 more prep at 1 1/8 that would be great.

Is the Robert Lewis next? In a couple hours??

by Swale on Feb 12, 2011 5:13 PM EST reply actions

I think it's right around 3:00 for the Lewis.

Then the El Camino at like five or six

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace

by Matt Gardner on Feb 12, 2011 5:17 PM EST up reply actions

3 my time...so 45 minutes or so.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace

by Matt Gardner on Feb 12, 2011 5:18 PM EST up reply actions

Wow, didn't expect Tackleberry to put in that kind of effort

Gonna have to re-evaluate how I view that colt. He wins at 1 1/8 miles and comes back to score at 7f. Impressive.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace

by Matt Gardner on Feb 12, 2011 5:32 PM EST reply actions

Tackleberry

WOW. I know it was only 7f but that’s a great race coming back quick off the Sunshine Millions. And they were flying!

by Swale on Feb 12, 2011 5:32 PM EST reply actions

I'm very impressed with his versatility

I didn’t think he fit in that well in that race but he sure showed me.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace

by Matt Gardner on Feb 12, 2011 5:37 PM EST up reply actions

Soaring Empire

someone backing him is bridge jumping.

the tackleberry connections are cleaning up in the win pool.

by Swale on Feb 12, 2011 5:34 PM EST reply actions

my bad

SE hit the board, I forgot his late run.

by Swale on Feb 12, 2011 5:35 PM EST reply actions

He had to work to get up

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace

by Matt Gardner on Feb 12, 2011 5:35 PM EST up reply actions

Tackleberry & Brethren

Matt, how much do those races help them in the Derby graded stakes earnings?

by Swale on Feb 12, 2011 5:38 PM EST reply actions

The Sam F. Davis was 225k

so he’ll pick up about 115k or so…gets him in the mix but he’ll probably need another 100 to 200k more to make sure he’s in. 300K would probably seal the deal.

Tackleberry is a 4yo…so no help to him.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace

by Matt Gardner on Feb 12, 2011 5:41 PM EST up reply actions

Tapizar opens at 1/9 at SA

and he’s got 34k of 42k in the show pool.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace

by Matt Gardner on Feb 12, 2011 5:46 PM EST reply actions

No other horse has more than $600 in the show pool.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace

by Matt Gardner on Feb 12, 2011 5:47 PM EST up reply actions

About 20 min

out and Tapizar is 1/9. Is he that much better than everyone else?

by btalbert29 on Feb 12, 2011 5:47 PM EST reply actions

I don't know if he's a true 1/9

I find it really hard to differentiate between heavy favorites. 1/9 is way too low, in my opinion.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace

by Matt Gardner on Feb 12, 2011 5:49 PM EST up reply actions

Robert Lewis

Tapizar is 1/9.

This is a classic Rachel Alexandra. Get a friend and go ALL/Tapizar/ALL.

Cost = $36.

by Swale on Feb 12, 2011 5:48 PM EST reply actions

lol

Beat me to it! Bretheren looked great. Any chance we’ll see him and Uncle Mo in the Tampa Bay Derby, or will Bretheren skip to go get some more Graded Stakes money? Could make for a great race like the Street Sense/ Any Given Saturday Tampa Bay Derby.

Matt, one more Turfway note, looked over the results last night and saw that Maker won both races with a new Jockey. Looks like it wasn’t Santana and Maker that were hot it was Maker and Ken and Sarah Ramsey horses that were the connection to look for

by btalbert29 on Feb 12, 2011 5:51 PM EST reply actions

Maker is having himself quite a meet.

I’m curious as to where Brethren will go next. He might try and avoid Uncle Mo although I’d like to see that match-up. The Gotham is the week before and the Rebel is the week after the Tampa Bay Derby. The La. Derby is two weeks after the the TBD

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace

by Matt Gardner on Feb 12, 2011 5:54 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah

He is 11th in earnings right now amongst trainers according to Equibase, but I’m not sure how much of that has to do with winning claimers at Turfway lol. I imagine Gulfstream and Fairgrounds have a lot to do with that, but his level of success probably isn’t as high at those tracks right now either.

by btalbert29 on Feb 12, 2011 6:05 PM EST up reply actions

The WPS pools are lovely right now

61k and 79k in the Win and Show pools…17k in the Place pool.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace

by Matt Gardner on Feb 12, 2011 5:54 PM EST reply actions

If I took a shot against Tapizar it would be with Ten Devils

A Rock Hard Ten colt trying the dirt for the first time after decent runs on the turf. Should have no problem with the distance and could sit on a big improvement. Plus he’s a nice 12/1 on the board.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace

by Matt Gardner on Feb 12, 2011 5:57 PM EST reply actions

Is that fraction right! 19.11!!!

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace

by Matt Gardner on Feb 12, 2011 6:07 PM EST reply actions

I've never seen a horse run a sub :20 opening fraction in a 9f race

If that timer is right it’s insane.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace

by Matt Gardner on Feb 12, 2011 6:09 PM EST reply actions

Okay, the TV fraction was wrong

the tote board says 22.48…that makes much more sense.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace

by Matt Gardner on Feb 12, 2011 6:10 PM EST reply actions

Damn

I missed it! The damn phone rang. BIG MONEY if you have it.

by Swale on Feb 12, 2011 6:12 PM EST reply actions

Didn't miss to much

Tapizar tried to run out of the bridle in the first furlong. He was done on the turn.

Nice win by Anthony’s Cross but they were staggering to the wire at the finish.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace

by Matt Gardner on Feb 12, 2011 6:14 PM EST up reply actions

Show

$48 to show – wow.

by Swale on Feb 12, 2011 6:14 PM EST reply actions

Bridgejumpers went SPLASH!

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace

by Matt Gardner on Feb 12, 2011 6:15 PM EST up reply actions

Indeed.

Man they are pissed.

I just watched the replay. Tapizar just folded at the 16th pole. The splits were quite good in that race.

Now we need to see Uncle Mo run again in the near future.

by Swale on Feb 12, 2011 6:20 PM EST reply actions

I'm curious to see the chart to see what the splits came out at

You’re right, Tapizar was d-o-n-e by the time they came off the turn.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace

by Matt Gardner on Feb 12, 2011 6:24 PM EST up reply actions

El Camino Real Derby

We’ve had two heavy favs today – Brethren and Tapizar. Brethren won like a 4/5 should while Tapizar ran himself into the wall. What will Comma to the Top do?

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace

by Matt Gardner on Feb 12, 2011 7:19 PM EST reply actions