This year, unlike previous run-ups to the Kentucky Derby, I've been trying to hold off on forming a Top 10 list until all the major prep races were completed, since in the past half of my Top 10s would get knocked off the trail before the end of prep season. This spring, while the defections have been fairly minor, the chaos of the preps has greatly increased the difficulty of determining the best ten. Sure, there are colts I prefer over others, namely Dialed In, but there hasn't been that one performance that caught my eye and caused me to say, "that's my Derby horse".
I've updated the 2011 Triple Crown spreadsheet with the results from last weekend's Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass Stakes, although I'm still waiting on the Bris figs for both of those races (should be released in a day or so).
File: 2011 Triple Crown
On to the Top 10:
|1||Dialed In||Not thrilled to put him in the top spot and he'll probably be an underlay on Derby Day.|
|2||Nehro||Loved the way he's finished up in his races and think he's got a shot in Louisville.|
|3||Uncle Mo||GI infection or no GI infection, Uncle Mo's light campaign makes it hard to stay on board.|
|4||Toby's Corner||As much as the Wood stunk for Uncle Mo, the winner ran well in victory.|
|5||Archarcharch||Could be placed a notch or two higher. Has won two graded stakes this spring.|
|6||Midnight Interlude||Loved his SA Derby win but am weary of his light foundation. Very intriguing colt.|
|7||Mucho Macho Man||Consistent most of the spring, which counts for something this year.|
|8||Stay Thirsty||Awful in Fla. Derby but flattered by the Wood winner.|
|9||Soldat||Another that bombed at GP but he's shown signs of life before.|
|10||Santiva||I prefer him much more on dirt than on synthetic.|
I'm having a severe conflict with Bob Baffert's Midnight Interlude; I loved his race in the Santa Anita Derby but am skeptical that a colt with as light of a foundation as his can win on the first Saturday in May. I think back to the year Curlin ran in the Derby and how difficult it was to jump up to that level after a strong showing in the Arkansas Derby. The Kentucky Derby was Curlin's fourth lifetime start. At the same time, Curlin was competing against Street Sense and Hard Spun in the Derby, along with several other decent colts in a fairly deep three-year-old class. Midnight Interlude may not be facing a group that deep in this year's Derby.
So...who's your Derby horse?