Comparing Figures of Kentucky Derby Contenders

by Matt Gardner on Apr 6, 2011 9:22 PM EDT in Handicapping

Note: A summary of all 2011 Triple Crown prep races, graded earnings, speed figures, and raw times for races at a mile or longer, can be found in the 2011 Triple Crown excel file.

As we move closer and closer towards the 2011 Kentucky Derby, there will be considerable time spent attempting to determine which prep races produced the best horses and the best performances. Some races will look great visually and have poor speed figures and ratings. While others will appear to be slow and of poor quality but produce decent ratings. There are a multitude of different systems for evaluating the speed or performance of a specific race, but three of the more popular figures come from Beyer, Brisnet and Ragozin.

While Beyer Speed Figures, Brisnet Speed Ratings, and Ragoin's "The Sheets" are each calculated differently and take into consideration different factors, they all attempt to illuminate the same thing: which horse performed the best/ran the fastest when compared to other horses from other races at other tracks? But while they seek to attain the same goal, they frequently come up with different conclusions.

In the chart below, I've summarized the Beyer, Bris and Ragozin figures for the top two-turn Derby preps this spring. These ratings only include two-turn races (no Holy Bull or Timely Writer) and they don't include any juvenile races from last winter or fall.

The Beyer numbers can be found a DRF.com's Stakes Results page; the Brisnet figures come from their Handicapper's Edge page; and the Ragozin numbers can be found at The Thoroughbred Times (which didn't have Rag numbers for the El Camino Real, Tampa Bay Derby or Robert Lewis).

The chart below summarizes the figure earned by each horse in each race and where that ranks among the other preps when compared to other figures earned. For Ragozin figures, lower is better.

Horse	Race	Beyer	Rank	Brisnet	Rank	Ragozin	Rank
Animal Kingdom	Spiral Stakes	92	8	97	5	9	9
Anthony's Cross	Robert Lewis	90	9	93	t-12	n/a	n/a
Archarcharch	Southwest Stakes	89	t-10	93	t-12	9.25	10
Brethren	Sam F. Davis	83	t-13	94	11	11	11
Dialed In	Florida Derby	93	t-6	101	3	7	t-4
Mucho Macho Man	Risen Star	94	t-4	97	t-5	8	t-7
Pants on Fire	Louisiana Derby	94	t-4	97	t-5	7	t-4
Premier Pegasus	San Felipe	96	2	100	4	3	1
Silver Medallion	El Camino Real	93	t-6	91	14	n/a
Soldat	Fountain of Youth	96	2	108	1	7	t-4
Stay Thirsty	Gotham Stakes	89	t-10	95	t-8	7	t-4
The Factor	Rebel Stakes	103	1	106	2	5	3
Twice the Appeal	Sunland Derby	89	t-10	95	t-8	8	t-7
Watch Me Go	Tampa Bay Derby	83	t-13	95	t-8	n/a

Some thoughts on these figures:

Dialed In's win in the Florida Derby earned the 2nd best Ragozin figure of any two-turn prep this spring (4), trailing only the performance by Premier Pegasus in the San Felipe. Brisnet also rated the Florida Derby highly, assigning it the 3rd highest figures this spring. Beyer, however, takes a different stance with a 93, a figure that ranks the Florida Derby right in the middle of the pack, tied for 6th.
The top Beyer race is, not surprisingly, The Factor's win in the Rebel Stakes. If you've followed Beyer figures long enough you know that the highest figs seem to always come from an unchallenged front-runner that can take the field gate-to-wire. That is certainly the case with The Factor - his 103 is easily the highest of any two-turn Beyer this spring with the next closest being Soldat's 96 in the Fountain of Youth.

Brisnet also liked The Factor's Rebel, but not as much as they like Soldat's Fountain of Youth. Ragozin has the Rebel as the 3rd best prep behind the aforementioned Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby.
Stay Thirsty's win in the Gotham didn't fare too well under Beyer (89, T-10th) but was considered a middle-of-the-pace race by Ragozin (7, T-4th). Brisnet essentially splits the difference between the two - the race isn't the lowest rated of their figures, but it's in the bottom half.
The two races at Tampa Bay Downs scored poorly on every system; Brethren's Sam F. Davis and Watch Me Go's Tampa Bay Derby ranked at or near the bottom of all three systems. The win by Archarcharch in the Southwest also rated poorly across the board.
The Louisiana Derby and the Risen Star rated almost exactly the same on all three system; the Beyer and Bris figures for the winners of each race were identical and the Rag figure was a difference of one point.
For comparisons sake, if you were to include Uncle Mo's Breeders' Cup Juvenile win with the rest of the races in the table above, he would rank first under Beyer (108), Brisnet (110) and Ragozin (1.25).

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Comments

Great information

I was shocked to see The Sheets give Dialed In a 4 for that race considering the beyer figure and that he appeared to have a ground saving trip. He had run a 9 in the race prior to the Florida Derby and had run a 4 in the Holy Bull. That said, he definitely is going to be in the mix to win the race, with 5 weeks of rest, he could move forward again and maybe run in the 1-2 range. His beyer number confuses me though.

Still if Uncle Mo is a freak, it may not matter.

The Angels physically disgust me.

by RA Dickey on Apr 7, 2011 9:38 AM EDT reply actions

I was surprised at Dialed In's Rag number...

Tough to know what to really make of that race.

And waht do we do with Soldat? His FOY was clearly a top race but the FL Derby was such a disappointment that it’s tough to get a good read on him. Perhaps he is a “need to lead” horse on dirt, if so, that drops him a bit in my book.

Agree about Uncle Mo – if he can duplicate his BC race I don’t know that there is anything this group can do.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace

by Matt Gardner on Apr 7, 2011 10:16 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

Just A Thought, But I Think A Good Way To Look At Speed Figs...

…is not to look at individual numbers, but repetition of high numbers. For every big race I usually make a Top 20 list that ranks the speed figs of every horse in the field, and instead of looking just at the highest numbers, I focus on horses who repeat multiple times on the list. In big feature races, and especially BC days it has led me to many pricey winners.

Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.

by JP Fanshawe on Apr 7, 2011 10:29 AM EDT reply actions

Good stuff, as usual, JP.

Agree that consistency is really important in evaluating the strength of a set of figures from a specific horse.

I like to look at the race that the high figures are earned in and then follow what the other horses did coming out of that race, especially with maiden winners. A horse that pops a big fig breaking their maiden but the rest of the field struggles in their next starts helps to assess whether that fig is legit and likely to be repeated going forward.

I think what I find interesting with looking at the individual numbers is the difference in opinion from system to system, and then attempting to determine if there are an inefficiencies that can be exploited next time out (especially with Beyer since top, last-out BSF horses tend to get bet pretty hard at the windows).

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace

by Matt Gardner on Apr 7, 2011 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions