PREAKNESS 2011: Entries, Post Positions and Morning Line Odds
by Matt Gardner on May 18, 2011 6:00 AM EDT
in Preakness
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PrintUPDATE: The draw for the Preakness is done and none of the top contenders got anything in the way of an awful draw (if there was one to be had). The connections of Astrology and Mr. Commons probably don't care for their positions, and Flashpoint seems to be in a spot the will require him to gun it from the word "go", but the main players ended up in good spots. Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom, along with Mucho Macho Man, Shackleford and Dialed In are in good spots.
ORIGINAL POST: The post positions for Saturday's Grade 1 Preakness Stakes will be drawn at Pimlico Race Course this afternoon at around 5pm Eastern/2pm Pacific time. The draw will be carried live on HRTV. If you don't have HRTV, you can follow the draw along live with this post as I was granted a day of reprieve from jury duty.
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Good Excuse
Jury Duty. Do you have any good reason why you can’t serve on a jury during this time?
Answer: Yes your honor – I have a sure fire exacta bet on the Preakness
Your excused!
I was fortunate in that they didn't call my group in today...
They announce that on the website the night before, so I didn’t have to waste time going downtown this morning. I will probably have to go in tomorrow but won’t know until tonight. Crossing my fingers.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Here we go...
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Well, I thought so...guess they want to talk a bit.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
#2 Norman Asbjornson
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
#6 Sway Away
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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#3 King Congie
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
#12 Isn't He Perfect
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
#13 Concealed Identity
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
#8 Dance City
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
#4 Flashpoint
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
#9 Mucho Macho Man
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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#14 Mr. Commons
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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#5 Shacklefford
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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#11 Animal Kingdom
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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#1 Astrology
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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#7 Midnight Interlude
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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#10 Dialed In
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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No prob.
I’ll have the odds up in just a sec after I upload the chart.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on May 18, 2011 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Ok, Mr. Gardner, what's your initial reaction to this draw...
11 sets up nicely for the Animal since he’ll have just as many to his right and left as he did in the Derby.
Casually.
Yeah, I think AK likes it...
MMM is in good shape, as is Dialed In.
Astrololgy is probably going to have to go fairly hard early with Flashpoint and Shackleford to his outside. I don’t love the 14 for Mr. Commons since he wants to sit just off in mid-pack…he could get hung a big wide into the first turn. He’ll have time to get over but may have to race closers up or farther back than he’d like. What will Shack do? He’s got two horses with good speed to his inside…does he pull back and stalk or do you go right to the front? He’s at least in a spot for the jock to make that decision pretty early.
It’s a good spot for a closer like Sway Away, he can just take back and save ground right from the get go.
I’m curious as to where Animal Kingdom will be going into the first turn.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on May 18, 2011 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions
That's the big question...
His two best have been up front so it’s a legitimate concern.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on May 18, 2011 6:33 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I don't like Flashpoint's draw...
speed inside…speed outside…and he wasn’t nearly as good the one time they tried to rate him. He’s got one option, in my opinion, go hard early.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on May 18, 2011 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Brisnet
Bris is picking Flashpoint as the winner and the next best rating is Shackleford. I think that’s odd because it tells me that they expect a slower paced race again (like the Derby) and that these guys will go unchallenged.
The picked MMM to grind it out for 3rd choice again.
Really? Flashpoint. Wow.
I hadn’t seen that. He’s a nice colt and all, but I’m just not sold on him at 9.5 furlongs. I suppose if they let him waltz around the track it’s possible, but my money will go elsewhere.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on May 18, 2011 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions
9.5f
I agree.
He stalked in the Florida Derby and couldn’t get it done so he’s gotta have the lead. His class rating to me is not that great and in the race he did run against the top horses he finished 4th. Taking the old lady at the track perspective, his 108 Brisnet jumps out loudly as you go down the form.
Dialed In
I’d sure like to know if he’d be in this race if there weren’t 5.5 million reasons to be there. It puts the handicapping psychy in a whirl.
There was an article in (I believe) DRF about the the Derby horses having the best chances of beating Animal Kingdom in the Preakness and not the fresh starters.
Any thoughts on that?
I'd agree..
I think the Derby horses (with the exception of Midnight Interlude) are the best of the bunch.
I think Dialed In would probably be here since he really didn’t run poorly in the Derby, just didn’t have anything to close into. I think Leparoux needs to keep him a bit closer to the lead this time as I don’t think sitting 17 lengths back is the way to go.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on May 18, 2011 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions
I just saw his first call time on Brisnet was a…..43? OMG.
So why is Midnight Interlude in this race if you are 1) Matt and 2) Bob Baffert [let’s not confuse the two] :)
Well, if it's me...
and all I had to go on was his Derby performance, I would skip this race. Seems like he still needs to mature and he was in perfect position to run big at Churchill and didn’t. Bobby B? I assume he thought MI would run such a better race in the Derby that he’s tossing it out and thinking he’ll be ready to bounce back big this week. He certainly could be right (never doubt the White Knight) but I’m really leery of him.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on May 18, 2011 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Midnight Interlude
I read somewhere (and it might have been on adtstc) that he was overwhelmed by the crowd at CD.
Being local to Pimlico, I can say that it’s gonna be 80+ degrees on Saturday and they are expecting a large crowd. I believe their largest in the past 3-4 years was 112,000+ and there was 160,000+ at CD – - how much of a difference is 48000 people?
Norman Asbjornson
The longshot I like is Norman Asbjornson. I bet him earlier in his career.
He beat Toby’s Corner once and I think Pimentel has learned a lot about this horse in the last 2 rides. He’s an improver to me ready to step forward.
Which running style do you think Norman will employ in this race?
Do you think he’s up front early, or will he hang back? That’s what I’m trying to figure out.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on May 18, 2011 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I think he is engaged with the leaders never falling more than 2 lengths back.
If he’s moving forward in this race then Pimentel pushes the “go” button at 8f (and if he goes), the whip comes out and you never look back because Dialed In and Animal Kingdom are coming.
What’s the stretch at Pimlico? I should know this already. In fact, what is the stretch for all three TC races?
Stretch drive
Churchill: 1,235.5 feet
Pimlico: 1,152.0 feet
Belmont: 1,097 feet.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on May 18, 2011 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Flashpoint but...
I think Flashpoint might just see a solid front end run Astrology just isn’t fast enough. I see Sway Away and 3M closing well in the stretch and a possible late kick from Dialed In. As for Animal Kingdom unless he’s a true freak he should “bounce” to the moon. off the board. Good Luck all!
Bounce
I believe in the bounce.
It was obvious Super Saver was going to bounce last year because his BSF went up by like 14 points plus he was reportedly under weight. That is something I’d like to know about all the Derby contenders going on Saturday: who’s not been finishing their feed the last two weeks?
I believe in the bounce but not sure if AK is a candidate...
If all of his other races were on dirt, then his Derby would really stand-out. But since they are all on turf or synthetic, I think it’s hard to tell if he freaked in the Derby or is just better on dirt. If he’s simply better on dirt, it’s certainly possible he could put up another good race in the Preakness.
I think the biggest key for Super Saver is that he loved Churchill and he loved the slop. With those factors not present at Pimlico, or anywhere else after that, he didn’t run well at all.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on May 18, 2011 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions
What are the odds...
that Animal Kingdom who never races on dirt – wins the Derby.
then goes to Fair Hill and struts on Tapeta for two weeks – ships to Pimilco and wins the what we’d have to call the Freakness?
Which Bet?
If we haven’t we should do a specific thread on which is the right bet about a giving field?
Some obvious ones would come out quickly but it has the potential to be a great discussion.
What is the right bet for this particular field on Saturday?
On Big Days....
I always go deep in exotics. I play this game on a normal Saturday to make a profit, but on TC Days, Travers Day, BC Days….I say forget about win betting, and go tri/super and P4. When the pools are inflated, it is time to swing for the fences.
Also, any race that features more than three speed horses will find me looking for a closer that has odds of 12-1 or longer. The Preakness fits that description this year, although I like that angle a lot more when one of the speed horses is also the favorite. This year’s Preakness speed horses are all 12-1 or longer. Speaking of that, why is Shackelford 12-1? Seems long, to me….
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
by JP Fanshawe on May 18, 2011 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Why is Shackelford 12-1? Seems long, to me….
I agree.
I think when the windows open Shackleford drops directly to 5-1.
The local angle with Animal Kingdom might keep him down at 5/2 until the big bettors put in and then I think he’ll end up close to 7/2 but I’d be surprised if he wins – not shocked but he won’t get my win money even if he were at 5-1. Should he win, I’ll be rooting like hell for him at Belmont. The industry needs it and he would have shown to be a very special horse – damn I wish he were fold in ‘Maryland, my Maryland’!
Seems like he might be a closing sprinter to me...
I liked him in Arkansas and he disappointed me both times.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on May 18, 2011 9:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Preakness | non-winners
I think that given the field, these runners have no chance to win, given the race is run cleanly.
- Isn’t He Perfect
- Concealed Identity
- Astrology
- King Congie
- Mucho Macho Man
- Flashpoint
- Sway Away
Some might be gasping on MMM but I just don’t see how his style wins in a diverse field of horses – he’s a grinder to me. He really hasn’t beating anyone in winning any races.
I just can’t see Flashpoint beating Dialed In when Shackleford is also in the race to keep him somewhat honest on pace.
Sway Away just hasn’t been anywhere close to winning in a route race.
the speed question in question.
I think Shackleford put forth too big an effort in last to stay up front for long and Astrology isn’t in Flashpoints class, at all. So I still see Flashpoint shaking loose on both even if they fire. I can see Dance City getting the best stalking trip and 3M closing best. Even with the probable bounce Animal Kingdom could make a decent showing. Sway Away should pick up tired horses. As far as Dialed In goes the more i look at him the more overrated he is. He’ll have to burn my money by winning this time.
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