LOUISVILLE, KY - MAY 01: Jockey Martin Garcia atop Conveyance leads the field around turn one during the 136th running of the Kentucky Derby on May 1, 2010 in Louisville, Kentucky. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
Dialed In, winner of the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, was made the morning line favorite for Saturday's Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs after drawing post position #8 this afternoon. Twenty horses drew into this year's Derby including juvenile champion Uncle Mo, who ended up in post position #18 and morning line odds of 9/2.
Archarcharch, winner of the Arkansas Derby, drew the dubious #1 post position, a spot that single handedly doomed Lookin At Lucky in last year's Derby. Archarcharch is 10/1 on the morning line.
Below are the entries, post positions, and odds for the 2011 Kentucky Derby
Some thoughts on the draw:
Other than Watch Me Go, nobody really got screwed too bad. Decisive Moment is drawn inside a lot of speed, and that's usually tough for a speed horse. Archarcharch is on the rail but he's not a horse that has to be out of the gate quickly (and Brilliant Speed is a stone-cold closer, so he should be able to out-break him in the first 1/2 furlong). It's not an optimum spot to start from, but he should fair better than Lucky did last year.
Dialed In should be fine at #8.
Uncle Mo is okay at #18, but he could get caught a bit wide in that first turn and I think that could be his biggest issue. At the end of the day, if Uncle Mo doesn't win I don't think it will be because of the draw, I think it will be because of his fitness. The draw might help to highlight that fact even more.
Michale Maker, the local trainer with a big following, got the #9 and #10 spots for his two colts: Derby Kitten and Twinspired. He's got to love that.
Speaking of loving something, the White Knight himself, Bob Baffert, had things go a lot better this year with the #15 post for his Santa Anita Derby winner, Midnight Interlude. With his running style, Midnight Interlude should be just fine in that spot.
At first glance the #19 looks bad for Nehro, but he does no running in the early stages of his races and he should be able to easily get over towards the rail before the field hits the first turn.
Is it just me, or is that a nice draw for Soldat? Outside most the speed and Garcia can choose how he wants to go early on. Plus, if he's a bit outside and not on the lead, he can keep out of the kick back, something he hated in the Florida Derby. I think that's an excellent draw for Soldat.
I also love the draw for Pants On Fire. Great spot for that colt as long as he breaks well from the gate.
Jockey Calvin Borel, who is riding 3-Twice the Appeal and has won the Derby three out of the last four years, will be down inside once again. If the riders give him the rail again this year they should all be banned from the sport!
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