KENTUCKY DERBY 2011: Entries, Post Positions and Morning Line Odds
by Matt Gardner on May 4, 2011 5:57 PM EDT
in Kentucky Derby
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Dialed In, winner of the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, was made the morning line favorite for Saturday's Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs after drawing post position #8 this afternoon. Twenty horses drew into this year's Derby including juvenile champion Uncle Mo, who ended up in post position #18 and morning line odds of 9/2.
Archarcharch, winner of the Arkansas Derby, drew the dubious #1 post position, a spot that single handedly doomed Lookin At Lucky in last year's Derby. Archarcharch is 10/1 on the morning line.
Below are the entries, post positions, and odds for the 2011 Kentucky Derby
Some thoughts on the draw:
- Other than Watch Me Go, nobody really got screwed too bad. Decisive Moment is drawn inside a lot of speed, and that's usually tough for a speed horse. Archarcharch is on the rail but he's not a horse that has to be out of the gate quickly (and Brilliant Speed is a stone-cold closer, so he should be able to out-break him in the first 1/2 furlong). It's not an optimum spot to start from, but he should fair better than Lucky did last year.
- Dialed In should be fine at #8.
- Uncle Mo is okay at #18, but he could get caught a bit wide in that first turn and I think that could be his biggest issue. At the end of the day, if Uncle Mo doesn't win I don't think it will be because of the draw, I think it will be because of his fitness. The draw might help to highlight that fact even more.
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Good draw
I am actually happy it helped eliminate some win candidates. You can’t factor Arch on top now, same with Uncle Mo.
The Angels physically disgust me.
It makes it a little easier to picture how the race will unfold.
I think Archarcharch will probably get away fairly cleanly but he’s going to have to deal with some traffic at some point. That should give other off-the-pace types an advantage over him, I would think.
For Mo, he’s already got conditioning and fitness questions, which might be enough to keep him from winning. Now he’s probably going to be a bit wide early on. Tough spot.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
hey matt
what are your thoughts on Master of Hounds in the 11. He’s very intriguing and I love Gomez, and I hope the price will be right. 20-1 final odds?
Master of Hounds is a real wildcard....
He should be fine at the distance but the great mystery is ‘how will he handle the dirt’? His UAE Derby was pretty good, and he faced some older southern hem. horses that day…tough to get a read on him.
My biggest issue with Master of Hounds is the fact that he’s only run one race this year, that’s not a profile that wins at the KY Derby. I have to draw the lime somewhere and MOH probably won’t be on many of my tickets…maybe deep in a tri, but that’s about it. just too many question marks for my tastes.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on May 5, 2011 9:36 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
After seeing the draw
I’m pretty sure I’m all in on Dialed In. It looks really good for the Dialed In, Midnight Interlude Gary Stevenson prediction. That may be my only bet, just a big exacta on those 2 and let it ride.
I’m considering a 10 or 20 dollar show bet on Derby Kitten or Twin Spired. I may go with Derby Kitten of the 2 because Maker and the Ramsey’s have been pretty good to me this year. I really like Twinspired too, not necessarily that he’s good compared to this field, but he’s a tough horse and his connections wanted so badly to get him to the Derby. I have a feeling 1 of those 2 could sneak in. Not from great handicapping knowledge just a gut feeling. Twinspired may actually get bet down some because of his name though.
I Think I Have Said This Before....
…and perhaps it means I am not a very good handicapper, but I give virtually no weight to draw position in Triple Crown races. Looking At Lucky’s bad luck from last year aside, I just don’t think in route races past a mile and an eighth that the gate break means all that much unless you are just a pure “need-the-lead” type, which in the Derby means I would be tossing you anyway.
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Yeah, the draw probably isn't as important as it's made out to be....
with some of the exceptions you noted. I think more important than post is which horses are drawn next to each other. A bunch of speed, closers, etc. Archarcharch got a bad draw, but since Brilliant Speed will probably walk the first furlong, Arch3X shouldn’t get flung into the rail like Lucky.
I do like seeing a colt like Dialed In drawn right in the middle…gives Leparoux options on where to place him early.
The unpredictable thing is we have no clue if one of these colts is going to bear out leaving the gate and cut somebody off, or any other start trouble. But it’s fun to speculate!
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on May 5, 2011 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions
Post Draw
I’m right with you on that JP – if it’s a clean start no one cares after the first turn is over.
However, if someone in the 4 spot, for instance, breaks hard left then that might have a chain reaction back to the rail which would affect more than just the #1 spot.
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