A Tale of the Post Selections:

Today’s Post Position selection has caused handicapper’s to shout, “Cry Havoc.”  What do you do with Uncle Mo, Nehro, and Archarcharch?

Uncle Mo, a questionably healthy or unhealthy horse, further aggravates his situation by drawing the 18 slot.  Nehro, to his outside in the 19 position, potentially hurts him further, and both may find the rush prompted by a possible off-track to be an early detriment to their chances.  Meanwhile, Archarcharch, a fateful, late arrival with the Toby’s Corner late withdrawal, draws the 1 slot, notably the worst position in the race, especially if the track is wet.

With a great draw, Dialed In is the legitimate early favorite in the 8-gate.

All horses in post 5-13 were helped by the selections.  After the new favorite, Dialed In, Pants On Fire, Mucho Macho Man, and even Derby Kitten, made gains.  Who knows how Shackleford and Soldat will like their positions in the race?

So, without making any premature selections, Dialed In had the best draw, Archarcharch the worst, and Uncle Mo and Nehro didn’t do well.

Looking for exotic options may be far easier than attempting to select an outright winner.  You can narrow the field, eliminating about 10-12 horses.  After that, it’s a guessing game where the weather may have the greatest impact on this year’s Kentucky Derby.

On Saturday, all this will be sorted out, with the weather at race-time modifying the final play.

2011 brings a wide-open Derby field, influenced by a pointed post selection, today.  The rains will begin late on Friday, and be sporadic, but possibly, strong, throughout the day on Saturday.

Based on an early analysis of this race, “Let it rain, let it rain, let it rain.”