2011 KENTUCKY DERBY DAY: Results and Open Thread
by Matt Gardner on May 7, 2011 8:43 AM EDT
in Kentucky Derby
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The handicapping is complete (mostly). The TwinSpires account is funded (for now). The beer is cold. The bourbon is ready. It's Kentucky Derby Day!
Churchill Downs will feature a 13-race card today, highlighted by the 137th running of the Kentucky Derby (Race 11, post time 6:24 Eastern / 3:24 Pacific, TV: Undercard on Versus and Derby on NBC). The first race will go to post at 10:30am Eastern and the final race of the day will go off at 7:50. And, yes, I might be playing races #12 and #13. You gotta get even at some point!
Good look to everyone today with your wagers, and may we have a safe Derby Day for all the horses, jockeys and track personnel.
Kentucky Derby Entries, Post Positions and Morning Line Odds
Scratches and Changes at Churchill Downs
Main track is currently FAST
Turf course is currently FIRM
The chart below will track all of the day's winners and pari-mutuel payouts. All post times are listed as Eastern. Clink on the link of the winner's name to be taken to the result chart via DRF.com.
Note: The chart below looks better if you are viewing on the "wide" setting (top right corner menu). I try to set up all the charts so they look fine on Narrow or Wide, but couldn't make it happen for this one.
| # | Time | Race | Winner | $2Win | $2Ex | $0.50Tri | $1Super | $1DD | $0.50P3 | $0.50P4 | $0.50P5 | $2P6 |
| 1 | StrAlw | 10:30a | 4-Uncle Pink | 12.40 | 48.00 | 31.85 | 128.80 | |||||
| 2 | AlwN1X | 11:00a | 4-Wordly | 7.80 | 13.40 | 16.35 | 100.40 | 29.70 | ||||
| 3 | MdSpWt | 11:30a | 4-CJ Russel | 3.80 | 25.80 | 40.15 | 541.00 | 11.70 | 45.60 | |||
| 4 | OC80k/N3X | 12:04p | 8-Snow Top Mountain | 5.40 | 16.40 | 6.70 | 63.10 | 6.00 | 17.95 | |||
| 5 | OC75k/N1X | 12:38p | 5-Goodtimehadbyall | 22.60 | 153.00 | 158.20 | 3,484.40 | 52.40 | 71.00 | 342.80 | ||
| 6 | G3-Turf Sprint | 1:19p | 2-Regally Ready | 8.80 | 27.20 | 15.05 | 213.60 | 73.30 | 139.65 | |||
| 7 | G1-Humana Distaff | 2:08p | 1-Sassy Image | 34.20 | 100.40 | 95.20 | 1,272.20 | 143.80 | 850.95 | 3,604.00 | ||
| 8 | G2-Distaff Turf Mile | 2:59p | 8-Aviate (GB) | 13.20 | 72.60 | 93.05 | 4,424.30 | 24.00 | 237.30 | 498.65 | 62.60 | |
| 9 | G2-Churchill Downs | 3:51p | 1-Aikenite | 28.60 | 144.20 | 599.90 | 6,748.30 | 82.40 | 1,529.65 | 134.50 | ||
| 10 | G1-Woodford Turf | 4:46p | 7-Get Stormy | 17.00 | 115.40 | 173.65 | 6,439.70 | 165.40 | 405.65 | |||
| 11 | G1-Kentucky Derby | 6:24p | 16-Animal Kingdom | 43.80 | 329.80 | 988.10 | 24,063.00 | 196.50 | 1,184.55 | 6,146.10 | 213,895.34 | 12,251.80 |
| 12 | AlwN2X | 7:20p | 8-Good Lord | 19.40 | 310.20 | 276.45 | 2,121.90 | 395.40 | 1,825.20 | |||
| 13 | MdSpWt | 7:50p | 1-Gentle Tap | 10.00 | 34.40 | 33.35 | 363.30 | 85.50 | 985.75 | 6,579.20 |
*Note: Churchill Downs will also off a Super Hi-5 wager on the Derby only.
The early betting from yesterday left us with the following odds (pool of around $275,000). We'll see how much these change over the day.
Dialed In (9-2)
Twice the Appeal (7-1)
Nehro (7-1)
Pants on Fire (9-1)
Midnight Interlude (10-1)
Mucho Macho Man (12-1)
Archarcharch (13-1)
Stay Thirsty (17-1)
Soldat (17-1)
Shackleford (19-1)
Master of Hounds (18-1)
Twinspired (21-1)
Animal Kingdom (24-1)
Watch Me Go (29-1)
Derby Kitten (29-1)
Santiva (30-1)
Brilliant Speed (30-1)
Decisive Moment (42-1)
Comma to the Top (43-1)
(By the way, I'm on zero sleep and still jet lagged at this point. forgive the horrendous typos and grammar that will probably pour from my fingers today. Add in some bourbon and it will probably get ugly!)
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Just finishing up breakfast here.
Now I need some winners.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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by Matt Gardner on May 7, 2011 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Here's my desired Pick 6 play...
Borel w Borel w Borel w Borel w Borel w Borel.
Sadly, Calvin isn’t riding in the Woodford so my dreams of an “All Borel” jackpot are dashed before they started.
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I'd hate to think how much money is being bet just on him today.
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by Matt Gardner on May 7, 2011 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions
tricky first race
All/2/8,9
kinda like the entry and the 6 but if Bind wins the second the pick 3 isn’t gonna pay much
Yeah, I couldn't get by Bind in the 2nd.
Looks really strong in that spot.
The entry is my play in this spot, but I like the 5 just a tad.
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by Matt Gardner on May 7, 2011 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions
stared at that one for a long time
like i said tricky race lets see if hitting the all button pays off
I liked the 4 a bit last night...
and got scared off due to that awful dirt effort first time out.
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by Matt Gardner on May 7, 2011 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Apparently the 4 is going to get crushed in the 3rd race
check out that DD will pay to Bind…2 bucks right now. First time Baffert horse who is 5/1 on the ML
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Yeah
think i will throw the 4 and 8 in a small pick 4 to try and beat the 2 but dont like my chances
The 4 was the only thing I could come up with other than the 2
don’t like the fact that Wordly doesn’t seem to like to win. Class relief should help a bit.
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by Matt Gardner on May 7, 2011 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Well, time to get this party started
$3 P3 2/4/4-8 = $6
$1 P3 2/2-8-9/4-8 = $6
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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by Matt Gardner on May 7, 2011 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
yep
Churchill, Race 2, $1.00 PK4 2 / 8,9 / 4,7,8 / 2-4,9-11
for 36 bucks
plus a small 6 dollar ticket with the 2 4 and 8 in the second
geez
if Rosie cant ride better than that in an 8 horse field how is she gon na manage in the derby.. that was awful
Agree. That was really bad.
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by Matt Gardner on May 7, 2011 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Not a great ride by Rosie in that one...IMHO
I know he was rank a bit early, but at some point you have to let him run. It was a softish pace, it’s okay to go to the front.
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Versus
I know Versus’s coverage is on the air now…But are they showing all the undercard races? I just watched the 2nd on HRTV, forgot to switch over.
And good luck to all!
Yep, they just showed the 2nd...and in glorious HD.
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by Matt Gardner on May 7, 2011 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, it's a crap shoot
His pedigree doesn’t suggest “win at first asking” at all but Baffert does well and early money loves him. I might go a light win bet against him (like the 2 and 8 a bit).
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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by Matt Gardner on May 7, 2011 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions
I think the 2 might get that lead without a lot of work...
Of course it really depends on Baffert’s horse. I don’t know that the 8 is going to show as much speed on the dirt as he did on synthetics. We’ll see.
I’m going win bet on 2.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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by Matt Gardner on May 7, 2011 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm gonna guess w/ the 9
Show horse came back to win in last, showing improvement.
Well, that answers that.
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Anybody catch the final time on that race?
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1:09 4/5
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by Matt Gardner on May 7, 2011 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
1st three races: 4 - 4 - 4
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I think the scratches really help the 4 in the next one
He should have a lot less pressure on the lead.
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I hate turf sprints...just hate them
although I like Regally Ready a bit more today that I did the first time I handicapped the 6th.
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by Matt Gardner on May 7, 2011 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
You gotta play a Woodbine winner, right?
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by Matt Gardner on May 7, 2011 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
If I was to take a bit of a price shot in here...
I’d go with the 10 but I’m not fond of the layoff.
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by Matt Gardner on May 7, 2011 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I threw a P3 together as they went in...
4-8 / 3-4-5-6-9 / 5
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by Matt Gardner on May 7, 2011 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
OK threw this in last second
Churchill, Race 4, $1.00 PK4 8 / 2,9 / 2,3,5,8 / 7
plus a 7,8/9/all pick 3
alive to the 9 only in the pick 4
very formful race
Getting chalky around CD...
…yesterday and today. Tough to find a price play.
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I have no idea what to make of that colt...
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by Matt Gardner on May 7, 2011 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
40 Minutes until they start at Belmont.
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Race 7
Good lord, that’s a tough race to handicap. No clue at all.
I think Hilda's Passion is gonna be tough in that spot
She’s on a roll and she’s got the speed to dominate from the start. I do like Twelve Twenty Two as a bit a price play.
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by Matt Gardner on May 7, 2011 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
This Woodford guy's horse tie is the bomb...
nice work.
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Tazmanian rain water, people. Tazmanian rain water.
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by Matt Gardner on May 7, 2011 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Morning gents
Busy morning for me. Tickets to the Hollywood Bowl go on sale this morning, so I’ll be leaving in a few hours to get my summer season seats. Should be back for the big one tho.
Just saw bobby Flay pick Soldat to not only win the Derby, but the Triple Crown.
Bobby Flay is a bold man
Why his horses aren’t named Hot Peppers or something like that, I’ll never know.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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by Matt Gardner on May 7, 2011 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
General thoughts on weather...
So if we are looking at a wet track (which I don’t think we will) how’s it affecting everyone’s thoughts for the Derby.
I like Midnight Interlude a lot, and think it only helps him. His maiden beaking race in the slop at SA was impressive looking. Hurts the deept closers right? That’s the general rule?
Soldat probably moves up in the slop...
I think it would really hurt Master of Hounds.
Pants On Fire has won on the slop before, but for many of them, it’s tough to really know until they do it.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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by Matt Gardner on May 7, 2011 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions
That's my play here, as well.
But five deep in the P3: 3-4-5-6-9
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by Matt Gardner on May 7, 2011 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, win bet goes down..
but alive to the 5 in the last leg of the P3.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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by Matt Gardner on May 7, 2011 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Outside of Kentucky
Crown of Thorns & Sidney’s Candy lock horns at Hollywood Park today. I’m very interested in that one.
They scared away a lot of challengers.
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by Matt Gardner on May 7, 2011 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
You got your Derby horse, LA?
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That was a pure "horse for course" inclusion for me on the P3
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by Matt Gardner on May 7, 2011 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Similar ticket to me...
I’ve got the 5 in the first leg, as well, and added the 6, 7 and 11 into the last leg.
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Nice work.
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Some of the racing sites need to upgrade their servers
DRF.com is slow as hell today. TwinSpires is holding on pretty well.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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Yup
Lost my access to my formulators PPs for about 40 min. Had to buy PPs thru xpress bet, now DRF is back up.
Very frustrating. I also had issues on Thursday. It’s not like their products are free..
Same here with Formulator...
I’ve got hard copies but I like to use Formulator for last second reference…
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4th choice Twice the Appeal...
at least he’s at 10/1 now but, come on. 7 million in the win pool, according to Randy Moss.
Derby is going to pay even more nuts than it usually does. A 5/1 favorite?
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Wasn't Harlan's Holiday the favorite at 6-1 or so
That’s the longest odds for a favorite I can remember.
I think you're right. Don't have the numbers handy right now...
but that sounds about right.
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Lucky was 6-1 last year also
IIRC he and Harlan’s Holiday are tied for the longest odds as a favorite.
Shows how little I remember from last year...
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I'm still working on my P5 ticket...
and it’s not pretty. Gonna have to sell some plasma.
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That hurt...
P3 and P5 go down.
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It's time to start drinking...
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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It gives me too much time to put down a beer...
don’t know that helps my betting!
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I like Aviate and Aruna in this race. Double A's
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The scratch of Ice Mist helps her a lot
should give her more space early on.
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Going horizontal this race...
trifecta with 6-8 on top…
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ok
Churchill, Race 8, $1.00 PK4 8 / 2,3,5,6 / 5,9 / 1,8,13,14
and yet I still dont think I have a chance
This 9th race is a killer.
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I had to buy this leg in the P3
I don’t like to do that…but I’ve had a beer or two and I want the action.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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I'll take the 8 in this leg...
let’s get this done.
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Oh, okay....those work to.
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"too"...whatever....
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Well, that helps..
P3 alive…plus tri and ex. Need another beer.
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'Bout time.
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i hate
When you have the field in the last leg of the P3 and the 6/5 fav wins like it just did at BEL
I'd say that 75% fo the time when I buy a leg...
I get the freakin’ chalk.
Of course, if I single the chalk, they run up the track (cough* Hilda’s Passion "cough).
I’m waiting for the 8th a BEL. Love the 1st time turfer, #3
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I love the play to Animal Kingdom...
seems to have the best chance to run big of the poly/turf horses
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Sweet, a Derby Day spamer.
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yup...
I liked the 1,3, and 4 along with the ones I used, my pockets just aren’t deep enough.
@foryourhandicap
I loved the 3...
If I hadn’t bought, I would have been mainly to him…which would have ended in a usual losing photo. Of course, now I need 4-5-12.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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I need the cheer.
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Then let's get the 5
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Cost of Freedom taking a lot of cash
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Good lord, 39 MTP at CD...
killing me….and still not to the 8th yet at BEL
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Shoot
Now express bet is slowing down….You would think these guys would be prepared for a day like this
I know...
on a day where the betting is huge, how can you have slow performance.
TwinSpires has been pretty good today but last year (or two back) is completely locked up prior to the Derby.
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My wife..
Would probably LOVE it if express bet locked up prior to the Derby, me not so much.
Here’s a good discussion questions. What post time price and what horse would make you re-think your derby bet. In other words, any value plays at the last minute that you are thinking about.
I’m trying to talk myself out of comma to the top at 30-1 or better, if it occurs.
That's a good question...
Right now, I’m not liking Midnight Interlude at 8/1….If he were to drift up to 12/1 or so, I would get on board. Right now, I’m starting to go towards Soldat and Nehro.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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You read my mind
8-1? I almost cried. I’ve spent the last two weeks really getting sold on him…but 8-1? I mean I have to include him in bets because I like him so much…But in terms of value, there’s nothing there at 8-1.
Yeah, 15/1 or so is much, much nicer.
I’ll have some action to him but I’m really torn right now on where my win bet will go.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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MMM
What about him? Maybe he gets lost in the betting crowd…Wasn’t he at like 10-1 last check? Or am I way off?
He might be where I go if I can get double digits. I’m also going to really key in on dialed on for exotics.
He's down to like 9/1 last I saw...
I like him but seems like some of these are just not as high as I would like.
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We all need to move to Canada.
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Been waiting all day to play the 3 in the 8th at BEL
which means he’ll run up the track. First time turf out of a Sadler’s Wells mare…love that pedigree.
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14-1?
I’m looking at the right horse/race? I’ll play along. I’ve had enough bourbon to just play of other people’s hunches
Yep 14/1.
Circled it last night and decided anything over 10/1 I’d make a play. Need some action between these races at CD.
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I’m big on Santiva and Animal Kingdom in the derby. My final opinion on the race:
http://foryourhandicapping.blogspot.com/2011/05/toughts-on-2011-kentucky-derby.html
@foryourhandicap
What's Santiva at now? Is he still 30/1 or so?
I didn’t catch the last odds flash on nbc.
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NBC
Can’t get enough of Rosie. It’s a bit tiring.
Yeah, they are re-runing these packages from Vs.
If I see that chick buys hats again I’m going to flip.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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just caught it...34/1
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wow, nice reply fail on my part...
34/1 on Santiva right now.
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Got the EX saver...
but, come on, somebody go with the speed. Ugh. P3 down in flames…could have cashed nicely.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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I got time to drink 3 mint juleps..
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Guys
Throw out some bets. Don’t have other tracks PPs infront of me, and would like some action in the next 1:15
BEL 10...like the 8 a touch in that spot...
First timer out of Johar.
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BEL 9...#6
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You get the super?
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that was a little rough.
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Ah, you’re all in here.
Archarcharch over Master of Hounds.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Hello $500 EX....
that’s not a bad day’s work.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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Where is this win bet going?
Was hoping Midnight Interlude, but unsure with odds. Maybe the favorite?
Soldat is probably getting my win bet...
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
I'm surpised he drifted up to 9/1 from 6/1
thought he’d get more play.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Anybody got Borel?
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Good luck, man...
Let’s all cash some nice ones.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
The Exacta will pays...
as they are every year, are insane. Dialed In to Archarcharch is the lowest EX…$81 for $2.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Check that...
Dialed In to Nehro…$61 for $2.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Bobby B...aka, The White Knight...
coolest man on the planet…or at least in horse racing.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
I get spammed by a capper who has Watch Me Go “locked into all of my exotics”
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I wonder if I can get a loan from that guy?
I got spammed by the Coach Purse guy…I felt so honored.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
“sign up to learn more” of course
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I see Wayne is on
Mucho Macho Man. Can’t go against The Great One.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
I'll give the Coach Purse spammer this...
he tried to spam me on Derby Day. The guys that spam this site in December are timing challenged.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Early Pace
I wish I could decide what the early pace is going to look like. I’m torn and it’s really hindering my wagering.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
It seems like it will be fast...
Maybe not Spanish Chestnut fast…but it should be fair. We know Comma will go with P-Val and I think Pants and Soldat will follow a length off. If Decisive goes with…could be pretty fast.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
That really favors Master of Hounds
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I like that play,..
I don’t have him on top but I think he could run big against this group,
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Anyone working Dailies or Picks right now?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I got destroyed in the Woodford...so, unfortunately, no.
But I’ll be playing the late Double in race 12 and 13.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
15 MTP
Get your bets in.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Watch Me Go!
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
8 MTP
Good luck everyone…and let’s have a nice, safe Derby.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on May 7, 2011 6:23 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, Nehro was right there..
I can’t believe how slow that pace was…1:12+ for six? Comma to the Top stayed much further back then I thought. Another game effort by Shackelford, thought he might take them all the way.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Gotta be happy for the connections! HGM and Johnny V!
But seriously – every year these 3 yr old get more and more unpredictable! Most of these runners looked so uninterested.
Yep, long time coming for Johnny V.
Sounds like Archarcharch suffered a minor injury. Hopefully he’ll be fine.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Yeah, looks like he's okay...
taking him to his stall for x-rays and not to a hospital, so I think it’s minor. Hate to see injuries, but doesn’t look too serious.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Looking at these derby payoffs
will make you sick. But Congrats to those who won!
Yep, the .50 P5 is a great bet.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
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