KENTUCKY DERBY 2011: How Slow Was The Derby Pace?
by Matt Gardner on May 8, 2011 10:01 AM EDT
in Kentucky Derby
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Most people realized that the pace set by Shackleford in yesterday's Kentucky Derby, won by Animal Kingdom, was on the slow side. But do you realize how slow it actually was? Below is the ranking of fractional times for the 2011 Kentucky Derby when compared to every Derby since 1988.
1/4: 24th of 24
1/2: 24th of 24
3/4: 24th of 24
Mile: 17th of 24
Finish: 10th of 24
Every step of the first six furlongs of yesterday's Kentucky Derby was the slowest we've seen in 24 years. Every single step. In this light, it's pretty amazing Animal Kingdom was able to make up the ground he was in the final furlongs. On the other side of the coin, front-running Shackleford had everything handed to him on a silver platter to win the Derby - an uncontested and easy lead. While his 4th place finish was nice, a top quality frontrunner would have won yesterday's Derby gate-to-wire.
(An additional note on that six furlong split of 1:13.40 - the next slowest over the last 24 years came in 1999 when Valhol went the opening six in 1:12.52, almost a full second faster than Shackleford.)
The final quarter mile internal split of 24.55 ranks 4th fastest since 1988, behind 2006 (Barbaro), 1990 (Unbridled), and 2002 (War Emblem),
In terms of individual numbers; the fastest come home time in yesterday's Derby was 23.79 by Dialed In. Dialed In also ran the fastest fourth quarter (23.21), making Dialed In the horse that ran the fastest final half-mile in the Derby. Unfortunately for the Zito trainee, he had nothing to run into due to the slow pace. Unless your name is Zenyatta, you ain't gonna win as a stone-cold closer into fractions like that.
Here are Animal Kingdom's individual internal splits:
1/4: 24.26
1/2: 25.42
3/4: 24.72
Mile: 23.55
Finish: 24.09
The early Beyer figure for Animal Kingdom is 103.
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As I watched the replay, it sure seemed like Shackleford wanted to go like hell and was being held back. It looks like Castenon is pulling on him a few times. I wonder how this race breaks if Castenon just let’s him run.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I got the impression that Castanon thought he was going faster than he was...
On the one hand, it’s smart to try and conserve energy. On the other hand, to your point, if he let’s him go and he is well within himself coming off the turn, does he simply give the rest of the field too much to do? I don’t know. He didn’t seem to back up bad in the stretch, as if he was out of gas, but he didn’t have that final burst. His final quarter was 25.19, which was one of the slowest of the top 10.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on May 8, 2011 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions
So he ended up putting himself in no-man’s land at the turn. Not enough space to get a big lead or make everyone go early, but not enough left in the tank to close.
In my opinion that was a game horse and a poor ride.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I'd agree...
at that point he needs to just go cause there is only one way to win, and that’s to make the rest catch you. He really needed to open up on the turn and didn’t do it. You wonder how that race would have looked if P-Val was on Shackelford and on the lead?
I didn’t like The Factor at all, but if he’d had been running yesterday and was allowed to go 1:13+ for six, I would have been surprised if he hadn’t taken them all the way.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on May 8, 2011 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Challenge
I don’t understand why on the backstretch hitting a half in 48+ that Soldat or some other presser didn’t just stepup and take the lead – - wasn’t Shackleford just begging for it by going out that slow? (I haven’t watched the replay but I know Nehro got into position around that time and I am not speaking about him in challenging the lead). This is also where I thought I horse like Midnight Interlude might make and early move if the pace were that slow.
Signed – Scratchin My Head :)
That's a good question.
Seems like that happens quite a bit. Look at the World Cup where nobody wanted to do any running in the early stages and the winner made a big move from last to the front on the backstretch because the jockey realized he had to do that or he’d never get a run at the front. That was a very tactical race yesterday.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on May 8, 2011 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Splits
Just for fun…Secretariat in comparison, closed in the Derby in 23 seconds flat. The fastest ever. Can you imagine that steam engine in this Derby?
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