BELMONT STAKES 2011: Entries, Post Positions and Morning Line Odds
by Matt Gardner on Jun 8, 2011 10:07 AM EDT
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ORIGINAL POST: The post position draw for the 2011 Belmont Stakes will take place at 11am Eastern on Wednesday, June 8th. The draw will be televised live on the MSG Network and streamed live on BelmontStakes.com. (The draw is also scheduled to air on HRTV.) If you are unable to follow along on either of those mediums, I'll also have a live blog of the events.
UPDATED: The results of the draw, along with the morning line odds, are summarized below.
Thoughts on the draw:
- With a mile and a half race, a field of 12, and an expected slow pace, the draw isn't really bad for anybody. Shackleford drew the widest and will most likely be on the lead, as Dale Romans stated after the draw, There's not a ton of distance between the starting gate and the first turn, so it's possible he could get hung a tad wide early, but I doubt that will have a major impact on the race.
- Master of Hounds on the rail is of no consequence as he doesn't have any early speed and the gate at the Belmont, unlike the Derby and Preakness, is right next to the rail (and does not require a "run-up" to the rail). He should only be in tight if someone to his outside breaks into him, but that's a concern for any horse, not just one on the rail.
- Animal Kingdom sits in a good spot and I wonder if they might try to keep him a bit wider in the Belmont than in the Preakness. He didn't appear to love the dirt kicked into his face early on in the Preakness and if Johnny V. can keep him a little wider in this race, perhaps he'll settle better in the early stages.
- Nehro grabs second favorite status on the morning line, 4/1, over the Preakness winner. We'll have to wait and see how that plays out on race day.
- I would think that Shaun Bridgmohan will hustle Santiva towards the front right from the gate as he's run much more effectively when up near the lead. The chief question is, will the frontrunners stretch out the field, or will we see a tightly bunched pack for the first mile?
- The rest of Saturday's Belmont card will be drawn later on today. The entries for Friday are out, and both the G3-Poker Stakes and G2-Brooklyn Handicap came up with short fields (six and five horses, respectively). It seems doubtful that the Brooklyn/Belmont Double will pay well this year given the five-horse field of the Brooklyn.
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Nothing yet....
Not much to go on and I haven’t read much on possible entries for some of the other stakes races Hopefully the Mankhattan will draw a good field; I was disappointed with the five-horse Acorn. Like you wrote, that will kill that double.
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Unfortunately, no.
They don’t seem to have the individual ones, either.
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Here they go...
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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3-Ruler On Ice 20/1
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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7-Monzon 30/1
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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4-Santiva 15/1
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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2-Stay Thirsty 20/1
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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5-Brilliant Speed 15/1
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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6-Nehro 4/1
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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12-Shackleford
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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9/2 on Shack
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by Matt Gardner on Jun 8, 2011 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions
11-Isn't He Perfect 30/1
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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10-Mucho Macho Man 10/1
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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8-Prime Cut 15/1
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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9-Animal Kingdom 2/1
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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1-Master of Hounds 10/1
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AK
has got to love that draw. That should set up well for him to sit on the outside of the pack and be good and clean to make his move. Like you said, there’s so much track to cover and only 12 horses that there really isn’t any issue why anyone can’t get a good trip out of their post position.
Agreed...
I think back to the Rags to Riches year…you can go to your knees at the start and still have plenty of time to recover, get into the race, and run big.
I’m curious as to what Santiva, and anyone else with some natural speed, will do – do they sit behind Shack and hope he fades late, or do they take the race to him a bit more early on. I would think they’ll all stalk, but sitting back and waiting for Shack to wilt has been a poor strategy for the stalkers…so far.
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by Matt Gardner on Jun 8, 2011 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
ML Odds
I think 10-1 for Mucho Macho Man and Master of Hounds are generous.
It will be interesting to see where the betting public puts them at post time.
I thought MMM might be lower...
But I’m not too surprised with MoH; seems like the Euro invaders that are sort of an “unknown” always start at that 10/1 or 12/1 point. I’m thinking that MoH will drift a bit higher if Nehro and Shack get bet down some.
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Trifecta
Right now I’m taking MoH as the value play and looking at:
MoH / Nehro + AK + MMM / Nehro + AK + MMM
It’s a $6 bet (which I will probably do for $12) and I think it’s good lookin :)
I like that...
You playing anyone for a straight up win bet?
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by Matt Gardner on Jun 8, 2011 8:55 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Nehro
Really? You’ve got him in a good spot – he loves second :)
Usually I’d bet a $5 EXAB with 3-horses but maybe I’ll do a $15 EXAB of MoH / Nehro.
I love Nehro's Derby....
But hate horses that love to finish second, but (like everyone else has said) he’s got to be in any exotic.
I’m still taking long look at Santiva, mainly because I’m so unsure of the pace. Fool me.once….
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by Matt Gardner on Jun 8, 2011 10:07 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
plus he has had a couple of bad trips in his last two starts...
maybe with a better trip he can run a huge one.
@foryourhandicap
That is kinda of my thought...
Belmont presents the opportunity for a clean trip due to distance, pace, etc.,…could make the difference.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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by Matt Gardner on Jun 9, 2011 12:21 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Entries for the full Saturday card are now out
http://www.drf.com/race-entries/BEL/USA/2011-06-11/D
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Belmont Day
outside of the Acorn and I think one other – the fields are big.
the Manhattan looks good.
undercard looks good...
Lots of big fields to play.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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by Matt Gardner on Jun 9, 2011 12:27 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I like Santiva at a price...
My thoughts:
http://foryourhandicapping.blogspot.com/2011/06/thoughts-on-belmont-stakes-this-june.html
@foryourhandicap
Nehro v Shackleford
Are these two mutually exclusive to hit the board?
Shack is going to the front, we know that – so at the 11th furlong: can he hold on?
Nehro was a typical closer but showed versatility in the Derby by staying close the whole way – but with 2 additional furlongs and the fact that he’s only shown this style once (I believe, correct me if wrong on that) is he a safe bet to hit the board?
The stretch is not that long so the tiring will happen coming out of the near turn, right?
I need to go back and watch some old Belmonts – like Summer Bird, etc. Matt – got any links handy so I don’t spend all morning surfing for them?
Belmontstakes.com has it all
http://www.belmontstakes.com/racing/belmontstakes.aspx
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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6 horse tri box
animal, hounds, nehro, macho, santiva, brilliant speed
i bet against shack in the preakness and he killed me, but i don’t think he has the distance at the test of a champion especially after short layoff.
Casually.
I'm of the same mind over Shack....
But I’ve been so wrong about him this spring that I’m very leery of ignoring him again.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
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by Matt Gardner on Jun 10, 2011 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Belmont Picks
I posted my best ideas on how to bet this thing right…
what about a casual 9/ALL/ALL wager?
$1 tri wheel 9/ALL/ALL for $110 and roll the dice with the 2nd and 3rd spots?
last time i placed this exact same bet was in 2005 when Afleet Alex was the 9.
Casually.
I'm really thinking this
I like 9
1,6,10
All
Maybe hedge my bets a little and do 1, 9,
1,9, 10
1, 4,5,6,10, 12
I haven’t decided yet, I do like the idea of singling 9 at the top though.
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