TRAVERS STAKES 2011: Entries, Post Positions and Morning Line Odds
by Matt Gardner on Aug 24, 2011 11:22 AM EDT
in Stakes Entries, Post Positions and Odds
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PrintA field of ten, led by Jim Dandy winner Stay Thirsty (5/2 morning line favorite) will line up in the starting gate this Saturday for the Grade 1 Travers Stakes at Saratoga (Post time: 5:45 Eastern; TV: NBC). Haskell winner Coil is the 2nd choice on the morning line at 3/1, while Preakness winner Shackleford drew post position number 10 and is the 3rd choice at 9/2.
Malibu Glow, a recent allowance winner at Saratoga, was a late addition to the Travers field.
While many are describing this year's Travers as the race to decide which horse will be crowned champion three-year-old colt of 2011, I think the most it will do is put one horse in the driver's seat. If one of the big four (Ruler On Ice, Coil, Stay Thirsty, or Shackleford) wins on Saturday, that horse will be in firm command of the division. But just like in 2007 when Street Sense won both the Kentucky Derby and the Travers, that might not be enough to lock up divisional honors.
If one of the horses that doesn't win the Travers were able to come back and win the Breeders' Cup Classic (a distinct possibility given the weakness of the older horses this year), that would likely be enough to seal the deal.
There is, of course, another scenario that could come into play: none of the Big 4 win the Travers and the division is thrown into complete chaos. But we'll deal with that later.
| PP | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | ML |
| 1 | Bowman's Causeway | R. Dominguez |
C. Brown |
12/1 |
| 2 | Rattlesnake Bridge | J. Velaquez |
K. McLaughlin |
8/1 |
| 3 | Moonshine Mullin | E. Wilson |
R. Baker |
20/1 |
| 4 | Ruler On Ice | J. Waldivia |
K. Breen |
6/1 |
| 5 | Malibu Glow | R. Maragh | G. Weaver | 20/1 |
| 6 | Raison d'Etat | E. Castro |
W. Mott |
10/1 |
| 7 | Coil | M. Garcia | B. Baffert | 3/1 |
| 8 | J W Blue | C. Velasquez |
A. Dutrow |
20/1 |
| 9 | Stay Thirsty | J. Castellano |
T. Pletcher |
5/2 |
| 10 | Shackleford | J. Castanon | D. Romans | 9/2 |
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Every time you think a horse is ready to step up and take charge...
somebody else rises up.
I’m leaning towards Coil, but am curious as to what the crowd will do on Saturday with Shackleford.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on Aug 24, 2011 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions
@ Saratoga
I’ve heard a couple places that the Saratoga track is running ‘heavy’ this season.
If you believe that, how much weight do you give to Stay Thirsty’s victory there and does it give a distinct advantage to any of the 4 horses who have run there if they’ve run well?
pace questions
how do you guys see the pace in this race? Shackleford and….that’s it?
if the half is run in :46.0 or less, i think some of these under-class closers might have a chance: JW Blue, Raison D’etat.
if the half is run in :47 or more, i see Stay Thirsty cruising to victory.
Shackleford will likely go to the front but he is likely to want to control the pace at that point on the slower end and grind it out?
is there any other speed to pull down the first two fractions?
I think that's the big key....
Can Shack get away on his own and set a reasonable pace? At the right price I might take a shot that he can. But….to your first question: the track does seem a bit heavy or tiring this season, with the exception of days when it has rained. It definitely will be important to see how the early races unfold on Saturday.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on Aug 25, 2011 6:54 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I've been in Central Washington camping the last two days...
Thankfully, I printed out the Travers day card to handicap while sitting around the campfire.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on Aug 25, 2011 6:59 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Picks
Shackleford: 1 1/4 mile looks like too big a hurdle for him. He will definitely press the pace & get passed in the final furlong regardless of the fractions. Stay Thirsty: nose for the course at Saratoga but not enough to beat for the late bloomer. Coil: Odds will be probably be the shortest but he looks like the sure fire winner to me. His recent works have been outstanding and Baffert is having a pretty good Summer.
Yeah, Baffert has Coil looking good heading into this one.
Shackleford should be all alone on the lead but, like you wrote, I don’t think 10 panels is not his best distance. I’ll play him in the exotics if the price is right.
I like Raison d’Etat as a bit of a price play in this race. Mott has him in good form, he’s run well over the surface this meet, and the pedigree suggests he should do fine with the extra distance.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on Aug 26, 2011 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions
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