Race Distances vs. Breeding Trends
by TFTribe on Aug 29, 2011 9:02 AM EDT
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PrintMatt: I bumped this up over to the front page as it's good stuff from TFTribe once again.
Since Matt brought it up in his comments about the King's Bishop Stakes, and I read this about Acclimation's victory in the Pacific Classic, "Acclamation completed 1 1/4 miles on Polytrack in 2:00.61, a track record in the five seasons this track has had the synthetic surface. The only 1 1/4-mile main track race run at Del Mar each summer is the Pacific Classic," I figured I'd take a quick look at what a day of racing is composed of, distance-wise. I took a quick look at September 2nd and found that basically, the larger circuit tracks (Arlington, Del Mar, Ellis, Calder) average about 2 races per card of over a mile. Meanwhile, smaller tracks (Canterbury, Charlestown, etc) are around 1(-) per day. Now I didn't go all the way through every entry card on the 2nd (I do have a job) but when you figure that there will be around 10 races per day, you're looking at 10-15% of total races are at 9+ furlongs.
Obviously major stakes meets (Derby, Travers, etc) are going to emphasize the classic distances and will throw off the numbers. But when you consider that less than 5% of horses (probably really more like 1%) are going to be even remotely competitive with high level stakes horses, the number of Graded Stakes of 9+ furlongs can really be thrown away when considering your regular-type racing.
Smart people know that when you breed to anything you're just rolling the dice. Assuming there is some level of standard deviation of the results of a genetic match, you will want to center the capabilities of your horses at around a mile (well that is my theory). That way you're looking to either miss short of a mile (6-7f) and be centered around the majority of the racing in North America. Or you miss long, and you're at 8-10f and can still find a place to run. And if you're longer than that, you're probably just slow.
The big discussion around Derby time was that there are so few breeders that are shooting for Classic distances anymore. Why would you when 70%ish of non-stakes money is at a mile or shorter? Hell, the Rachel Alexandra-Curlin foal might run in 10k claimers, who knows. So when it's a total crapshoot anyway, you should play it safe. If you miss on a horse you're Breeding for the Belmont, then you end up with a horse that needs to be Western-broke as a pleasure horse.
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Excellent points all around.
To add even further, many small tracks around the country never, ever run a race at 10f. And when it’s Belmont Stakes time, there’s the realization that the Belmont is the only Grade 1 race at a 12f on dirt anywhere in the country (since the JCGC was reduced to 10f a while back).
I suppose that we should be surprised that very few horses really want to run 10f – why would breeders aim for horses that can get that distance (and owners buy horses for that distance) when the overwhelming number of races are between 6 and 9 furlongs.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
I Think...
that you are right on with regard to breeding being such a crapshoot. I have high-hopes that outcross breeding will become more prominent, because I believe that the path to more superhorses lies in that direction, not in the triple cross inbreeding that is so prevalent now
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
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