WHITNEY INVITATIONAL HANDICAP: Entries, Post Positions and Odds
by Matt Gardner on Aug 3, 2011 4:43 PM EDT
in Stakes Entries, Post Positions and Odds
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PrintSaturday's Grade 1 Whitney Invitational Handicap (post time 5:45pm Eastern) has drawn a deep and contentious field of eleven older horses.
1-Flat Out comes into the Whitney after a career-best performance in the G2-Suburban where he blew away the field by an easy 6 1/2 lengths at the wire. He'll need a big effort in the Whitney to prove that his last race was legit.
2-Friend Or Foe won the listed Easy Goer Stakes on June 5th at Belmont but has had little success against graded company in his brief career.
3-Morning Line failed badly as the betting favorite in the G3-Salvatore Mile at Monmouth in his last race. A colt that might be better at one-turn than two, he won the 7f G1-Carter back on April 9th and was second in last year's Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile.
4-Giant Oak, the high-weight in this year's Whitney, won the G1-Donn in early February but has been off his best form in his last two tries.
5-Tizway was impressive in winning the G1-Met Mile on May 30th but he tends to run less than his best at two-turns and is 8-1-0-2 lifetime when going nine furlongs.
6-Mission Impazible was second in the G1-Foster in his last start and has finished 2nd or better in five of his last seven races.
7-Rail Trip is trying to get back to the form he displayed last summer in Southern California before moving to the East Coast. He's only started two races since the barn switch - 5th in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and 2nd in the Easy Goer - and it remains to be seen if he'll ever be as good on dirt as he was on synthetics.
8-Headache used a powerful stretch move to win the G3-Cornhusker Handicap at Prairie Meadows in his last start; the win was Headache's first graded stakes victory in his first try.
9-Rodman was well beaten in the Suburban, finished 2nd to Tizway in the Met Mile and has had good success at Saratoga (2-2-0-0).
10-Apart has placed in the top three in all five of his starts during 2011, including a win in the G3-Donal Schaefer Memorial at Pimlico.
11-Duke of Mischief won the Charles Town Classic over a ridiculously sloppy track on April 16th, followed by a 4th place finish in the Stephen Foster.
UPDATE: Not a ton of surprises with the morning line odds. Flat Out gets the favorite status, which is to be expected after the large 113 Beyer performance in the Suburban. A figure like that will usually attract a lot of attention from the crowd.
The rest of the field are all between 5/1 and 20/1 on the morning line with three horses at 6/1 (Tizway, Mission Impazible, and Apart) and two at 8/1 (Friend Or Foe and Duke of Mischief).
| PP | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | ML |
| 1 | Flat Out | A. Solis | C. Dickey | 4/1 |
| 2 | Friend Or Foe | J. Lezcano | J. Kimmel | 8/1 |
| 3 | Morning Line | J. Velazquez | N. Zito | 10/1 |
| 4 | Giant Oak | S. Bridgmohan | C. Block | 5/1 |
| 5 | Tizway | R. Maragh | H. Bond | 6/1 |
| 6 | Mission Impazible | J. Castellano | T. Pletcher | 6/1 |
| 7 | Rail Trip | R. Dominguez | R. Dutrow, Jr. | 12/1 |
| 8 | Headache | M. Mena | M. Maker | 20/1 |
| 9 | Rodman | E. Prado | M. Hushion | 20/1 |
| 10 | Apart | J. Leparoux | A. Stall, Jr. | 6/1 |
| 11 | Duke of Mischief | J. Bravo | D. Fawkes | 8/1 |
In keeping with the recent weight theme, the handicap weights for the Whitney are as follows:
119 - Giant Oak
118 - Morning Line
118 - Tizway
118 - Mission Impazible
117 - Flat Out
117 - Rail Trip
117 - Apart
117 - Duke of Mischief
116 - Headache
115 - Friend Or Foe
114 - Rodman
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Whitney
I’m going with 5-Tizway. He won that Grade 1 Met Mile in impressive fashion and looks to be on top of his game. In fact he’s never looked better. He’s bred for the distance despite past failures at this distance.
You didn't get me down, Ray.
I found myself leaning twoards Mission Impazible in this spot
He’s not a horse that I generally like in a lot of his races but I think he might get a good trip right off the early speed.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Wide Open Whitney
this is as wide-open a race as you get …
pace? no clue the E horses listed don’t really blow it out that i can see.
closer? Giant Oak by my standards but I just don’t see it at a mile and an eighth.
i expect tizway to bounce of that lifetime best; in that strategy i sort of like rodman coming 2-off his lifetime best beyer.
i smell a big trifecta in this one.
reserving my right to change, my initial thoughts are 2+9/2+9/3+4+5+1 ($12)
i am just not sure the fractions will be there for flat out to get to the leaders
Philosophy
Can a horse bounce and still win? Does bounce mean run slower or lack competitiveness? Did Cigar or Zenyatta never experience bounce during their winning streaks? Are horses that are expected to bounce dismissed entirely in the bounce race?
What I’m driving at is your tri ticket as you left Tizway off of your first two choices on the assumption that he’ll bounce. I would caution that, if he wins the race, it won’t necessarily be that he failed to bounce. I welcome your viewpoint on this.
You didn't get me down, Ray.
Bounce
I think that’s a good point on bounces – a horse could run back to 85% to 90% of the huge effort and still win. And I suppose the conditions for the big effort are important to consider as to whether a bounce is likely – favorable surface, distance, pace, competition, etc.
For myself, a horse that could potentially “bounce” (or regress) is a throwout only if I believe that their pre-bounce form/level is a) not good enough to win, b) more a reflection of their true talent level…or possibly c) if I think the odds are out of line with his true talent level. If I think a horse might regress of his/her previous big effort but is still clearly the beet of the field, then there is no way I toss them, regardless of any bounce.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on Aug 6, 2011 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
I love your title – philosphy (or system). Everyone had different interpretations.
There are so many racing scenarios – but the best is always where there is some establishment of talenet and some horses still moving forward. I love the Derby because of this.
+12 Beyer and achieving a lifetime best Beyer is where I think someone will bounce. does it always happen, no. It’s just my philosophy.
Handicapping is about decision making and decision making is all about weighing elements of the decision. So where I might put more weigh on JJ Castallano as the jockey in one race I might not in another – - you guys know all this. So my tri bet has more elements than just bounce in it (if i’ve had a couplle beers when I put it in – that’s a big factor).
I think Zenyatta’s races were well picked and I am in her camp as a horse racing fan and she was extraordanary.
Thanks for your views. I do appreciate them!
Good luck to all.
This one is tough
One could make an argument for about eight of the horses. Because of that, I’m gonna go with one of the longer odds.
Give me Duke of Mischief.
I'm thankful I didn't bet this race...
Every wager I sketched out looked like a loser and they would have been. Sometimes the money I don’t bet is the best choice of the day.
If I play a Pick 4 at the Breeders’ Cup that includes the Classic, I’ll just hit the “ALL” button!
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
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