RE: Breeders' Cup Juveniles Potential
by TFTribe on Sep 10, 2011 3:49 PM EDT
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Matt put up a great post looking at the contenders to be in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile this fall. I figured I'd take a look at their breeding to see if they really stack up as a contender NEXT year for the Triple Crown races. The biggest hurdle for these horses to clear are distance and durability. So by looking at their breeding (primarily the Dosage Index) you can normally get a handle on what their genes are saying they should be capable of. Durability is looked at by giving a once over to the sire's progeny and seeing how many registered foals actually make it to the track and win (this is a decidedly approximate way to do this, but really the only way without digging into the dam's siblings and their offspring as well.) The caveat to everything in breeding is that you are usually looking at a small sample size for active stallions, but that's a given.
So which of the Juvenile contender's stacks up to be a player on next year's stage?
Matt had a list of 14 colts that were on the list. Two of them, Klarman and Pompay, have not been entered into PedigreeQuery.com (tsk, tsk, owners: how can you expect anyone to know who your horse is?) so they have been excluded. So here's the list:
BC Juveniles 2011
A couple notes: SSS is small sample size. Durability is on a scale from Fair-OK-Good-High. UNK is just not enough data to really tell. I took a quick look at the dam and her winnings/family and if anything important came up, it's in the notes.
So the bottom line here is that in my estimation, the "Yes" horses have the bloodlines to be successful at the classic Triple Crown Distances. I'd put my money on Creative Cause and Black Rhino from this list. Creative Cause is bread out the wazoo and Giant's Causeway's foals have a high win percentage once they reach the track. ?Black Rhino is solidly bred, and should have the distance necessary to compete.
A lot of these contenders are really pretenders for the 3yo classic circuit next year. She Digs Me may be a fluke, but I'm betting he's a low level stakes horse at best. Trinniberg shouldn't have the distance.
Second tier contenders: Stat, I'll have Another, Managed Account, and Union Rags. But these are significantly second tier.
So I'm going to find a futures pool and see if I can place a few bucks on if CC and BR are even entries. Anything can happen for sure, but just a quick look can tell a ton about the potential of these fellas.
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Derby Futures
The Wynn Las Vegas recently released their 2012 Derby future book. LINK
Creative Cause 50/1
Black Rhino? A tasty 250/1
She Digs Me… doubt we see a Henny Hughes colt get much ground.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
Yep.
The three co-favorites are all at 50/1:
Creative Cause
Alpha
Fire On Ice
The only other horses under 100/1 are Union Rags (60/1) and Drill (60/1).
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on Sep 10, 2011 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Interesting Stuff, TFT...
but I would think that dams might hold the keys to contending more than sires. Sires are so much more trackable because they are spreading so much seed, if you will, but isn’t it dams that pass on the Princequillo gene? Lately, I have taken to paying much more attention to a Triple Crown horse’s mother’s ancestry.
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Agree completely
But when making an assessment of durability, the dams have so few foals it’s hard to tell what the real #s or impacts are. Now yeah, I could go back through the female family lineage, but I just didn’t have the time. I think that for this exercise substituting the sire’s progeny is close enough.
Now as to quality of the colt, you’re completely right. That’s why Vegas and I agree on creative cause. There are hundreds of AP Indys out there, but only 3 Ashados. It’s supply and demand and the production/success on the female lineage is the driving determination of quality/value of any foal. I link quality and value since they are supposed to be one in the same.
The dosage does account for the entire lineage, so that’s why I used that for determining distance.
The methodology is admittedly sketchy, but it’s the best I can do with my limited resources.
by TFTribe on Sep 12, 2011 6:30 PM EDT via iPhone app up reply actions
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