BREEDERS' CUP 2011: Training, not racing, to Louisville (Updated)
by Matt Gardner on Sep 23, 2011 7:53 PM EDT
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Update: At the bottom of the post I've added data of Breeders' Cup winners and their time off for every race since 2005.
Original Post: News from both coasts today indicated two horses will train up to the Breeders' Cup instead of running in a prep race sometime in the next two weeks. Met Mile and Whitney winner Tizway was expected to run in next Saturday's Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, but a spiked fever will cause him to miss the race. He will now train towards the Breeders' Cup Classic.
Out West, Twirling Candy will bypass the Grade 1 Goodwood at Santa Anita and also opt to train up to the Breeders' Cup. Unlike Tizway, it appears that Twirling Candy is not suffering from a current injury or illness, but he did miss some training time earlier due to a bruised foot, as reported by the Daily Racing Form. Twirling Candy is expected to run in either the Classic or the Dirt Mile.
It remains to be seen whether or not a prep race will harm the chances of either of these horses at the Breeders' Cup, but I help thinking about Quality Road last year, a horse with obviously some distance questions, trying to also "train up" to the Classic, instead of running in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. As you may recall, Quality Road finished last in the field of 12, over 29 lengths behind Blame and Zenyatta. He was the only horse in the Classic that hadn't had a race since September 25th. The only other horse that didn't have a prep race in October was First Dude, and he finished 8th, over 10 lengths back.
Just looking at last year's results, it's not an easy thing to win at the Breeders' Cup without a race in October, let alone September.
Below is a look as last year's Breeders' Cup winners and the date of their last race prior to running at Churchill Downs:
| Race | Winner | LastRace |
| Marathon | Eldaafer | TP - 9/11 |
| Juvenile Fillies Turf | More Than Real | WO - 9/18 |
| Filly & Mare Sprint | Dubai Majesty | KEE - 10/9 |
| Juvenile Fillies | Awesome Feather | CRC - 10/16 |
| Filly & Mare Turf | Shared Account | BEL - 10/2 |
| Ladies' Classic | Unrivaled Belle | BEL - 10/2 |
| Juvenile Turf | Pluck | WO - 10/18 |
| Sprint | Big Drama | SAR - 9/4 |
| Turf Sprint | Chamberlain Bridge | KEE - 10/9 |
| Juvenile | Uncle Mo | BEL - 10/9 |
| Mile | Goldikova (IRE) | LCH - 10/3 |
| Dirt Mile | Dakota Phone | OTH - 10/2 |
| Turf | Dangerous Midge | NBY - 9/17 |
| Classic | Blame | BEL - 10/2 |
Last year, four horses won a Breeders' Cup race without the benefit of a race in October, but all three did run in September. Additionally, Big Drama was the only horse to win off a layoff of nine weeks or more, something that both Tizway and Twirling Candy will be trying to duplicate. (Sprint contender Smiling Tiger will also come into the Breeders' Cup off of an extended layoff.) Will they be able to pull it off?
Below is the data for every winner since 2005.
| Year | Date | Race | Winner | LastTrack | LastDate | DaysOff | WeeksOff |
| 2006 | 4-Nov | Classic | Invasor (ARG) |
SAR | 5-Aug | 91 | 13 |
| 2010 | 6-Nov | Sprint | Big Drama | SAR | 4-Sep | 63 | 9 |
| 2008 | 25-Oct | Sprint | Midnight Lute | DMR | 24-Aug | 62 | 9 |
| 2007 | 26-Oct | Filly & Mare Sprint | Maryfield | SAR | 26-Aug | 61 | 9 |
| 2006 | 4-Nov | Turf | Red Rocks (IRE) | YOR | 6-Sep | 59 | 8 |
| 2007 | 27-Oct | Sprint | Midnight Lute | SAR | 1-Sep | 56 | 8 |
| 2006 | 4-Nov | Filly & Mare Turf | Ouija Board (GB) | LEO | 9-Sep | 56 | 8 |
| 2010 | 5-Nov | Marathon | Eldaafer | TP | 11-Sep | 55 | 8 |
| 2007 | 26-Oct | Dirt Mile | Corinthian | SAR | 1-Sep | 55 | 8 |
| 2005 | 29-Oct | Juvenile | Stevie Wonderboy | DMR | 7-Sep | 52 | 7 |
| 2010 | 6-Nov | Turf | Dangerous Midge | NBY | 17-Sep | 50 | 7 |
| 2005 | 29-Oct | Classic | Saint Liam | BEL | 10-Sep | 49 | 7 |
| 2010 | 5-Nov | Juvenile Fillies Turf | More Than Real | WO | 18-Sep | 48 | 7 |
| 2008 | 25-Oct | Mile | Goldikova (IRE) | LCH | 7-Sep | 48 | 7 |
| 2006 | 4-Nov | Juvenile Fillies | Dreaming of Anna | WO | 17-Sep | 48 | 7 |
| 2005 | 29-Oct | Sprint | Silver Train | BEL | 11-Sep | 48 | 7 |
| 2008 | 24-Oct | Filly & Mare Sprint | Ventura | WO | 7-Sep | 47 | 7 |
| 2009 | 7-Nov | Dirt Mile | Furthest Land | TP | 25-Sep | 43 | 6 |
| 2008 | 25-Oct | Turf | Conduit (IRE) | DON | 13-Sep | 42 | 6 |
| 2005 | 29-Oct | Juvenile Fillies | Folkore | BEL | 17-Sep | 42 | 6 |
| 2007 | 27-Oct | Mile | Kip Deville | WO | 16-Sep | 41 | 6 |
| 2009 | 7-Nov | Turf Sprint | California Flag | OSA | 30-Sep | 38 | 5 |
| 2010 | 6-Nov | Dirt Mile | Dakota Phone | OTH | 2-Oct | 35 | 5 |
| 2010 | 6-Nov | Classic | Blame | BEL | 2-Oct | 35 | 5 |
| 2009 | 7-Nov | Sprint | Dancing in Silks | OSA | 3-Oct | 35 | 5 |
| 2009 | 7-Nov | Mile | Goldikova (IRE) | LCH | 3-Oct | 35 | 5 |
| 2010 | 5-Nov | Filly & Mare Turf | Shared Account | BEL | 2-Oct | 34 | 5 |
| 2010 | 5-Nov | Ladies' Classic | Unrivaled Belle | BEL | 2-Oct | 34 | 5 |
| 2010 | 6-Nov | Mile | Goldikova (IRE) | LCH | 3-Oct | 34 | 5 |
| 2009 | 7-Nov | Juvenile Turf | Pounced | LCH | 4-Oct | 34 | 5 |
| 2009 | 7-Nov | Turf | Conduit (IRE) | LCH | 4-Oct | 34 | 5 |
| 2009 | 6-Nov | Juvenile Fillies Turf | Tapitsfly | BEL | 4-Oct | 33 | 5 |
| 2009 | 6-Nov | Filly & Mare Turf | Midday (GB) | LCH | 4-Oct | 33 | 5 |
| 2008 | 25-Oct | Turf Sprint | Desert Code | OSA | 24-Sep | 31 | 4 |
| 2009 | 7-Nov | Classic | Zenyatta | OSA | 9-Oct | 29 | 4 |
| 2008 | 25-Oct | Marathon | Muhannak (IRE) | DUN | 26-Sep | 29 | 4 |
| 2010 | 6-Nov | Turf Sprint | Chamberlain Bridge | KEE | 9-Oct | 28 | 4 |
| 2010 | 6-Nov | Juvenile | Uncle Mo | BEL | 9-Oct | 28 | 4 |
| 2009 | 6-Nov | Juvenile Fillies | She Be Wild | KEE | 9-Oct | 28 | 4 |
| 2009 | 6-Nov | Ladies' Classic | Life Is Sweet | OSA | 9-Oct | 28 | 4 |
| 2008 | 25-Oct | Dirt Mile | Albertus Maximus | OSA | 27-Sep | 28 | 4 |
| 2008 | 25-Oct | Classic | Raven's Pass | ASC | 27-Sep | 28 | 4 |
| 2007 | 27-Oct | Filly & Mare Turf | Lahudood (GB) | BEL | 29-Sep | 28 | 4 |
| 2006 | 4-Nov | Juvenile | Street Sense | KEE | 7-Oct | 28 | 4 |
| 2006 | 4-Nov | Sprint | Thor's Echo | OSA | 7-Oct | 28 | 4 |
| 2006 | 4-Nov | Mile | Miesque's Approval | KEE | 7-Oct | 28 | 4 |
| 2006 | 4-Nov | Distaff | Round Pond | BEL | 7-Oct | 28 | 4 |
| 2010 | 5-Nov | Filly & Mare Sprint | Dubai Majesty | KEE | 9-Oct | 27 | 4 |
| 2009 | 6-Nov | Filly & Mare Sprint | Informed Decision | KEE | 10-Oct | 27 | 4 |
| 2009 | 7-Nov | Juvenile | Vale of York (IRE) | MIL | 11-Oct | 27 | 4 |
| 2008 | 24-Oct | Juvenile Fillies | Stardom Bound | OSA | 27-Sep | 27 | 4 |
| 2008 | 24-Oct | Ladies' Classic | Zenyatta | OSA | 27-Sep | 27 | 4 |
| 2008 | 25-Oct | Juvenile | Midshipman | OSA | 28-Sep | 27 | 4 |
| 2007 | 27-Oct | Distaff | Ginger Punch | BEL | 30-Sep | 27 | 4 |
| 2007 | 27-Oct | Turf | English Channel | BEL | 30-Sep | 27 | 4 |
| 2007 | 27-Oct | Classic | Curlin | BEL | 30-Sep | 27 | 4 |
| 2005 | 29-Oct | Mile | Artie Schiller | BEL | 2-Oct | 27 | 4 |
| 2005 | 29-Oct | Turf | Shirocco (GER) | LCH | 2-Oct | 27 | 4 |
| 2008 | 24-Oct | Juvenile Fillies Turf | Maram | BEL | 1-Oct | 23 | 3 |
| 2009 | 6-Nov | Marathon | Man of Iron | DUN | 16-Oct | 21 | 3 |
| 2008 | 24-Oct | Filly & Mare Turf | Forever Together | KEE | 3-Oct | 21 | 3 |
| 2008 | 25-Oct | Juvenile Turf | Donativum (GB) | NEW | 4-Oct | 21 | 3 |
| 2007 | 27-Oct | Juvenile Fillies | Indian Blessing | BEL | 6-Oct | 21 | 3 |
| 2007 | 27-Oct | Juvenile | War Pass | BEL | 6-Oct | 21 | 3 |
| 2010 | 5-Nov | Juvenile Fillies | Awesome Feather | CRC | 16-Oct | 20 | 3 |
| 2005 | 29-Oct | Filly & Mare Turf | Intercontinental (GB) | KEE | 9-Oct | 20 | 3 |
| 2005 | 29-Oct | Distaff | Pleasant Home | KEE | 9-Oct | 20 | 3 |
| 2010 | 6-Nov | Juvenile Turf | Pluck | WO | 18-Oct | 19 | 3 |
| 2007 | 26-Oct | Juvenile Turf | Nownownow | KEE | 7-Oct | 19 | 3 |
Of the 69 races run at the Breeders' Cup since 2005, 52 have been won by horses with a race within 43 days (six weeks). There were only seventeen winners with a greater than six week layoff, and only one, Invasor (ARG), with a layoff of longer than nine weeks.
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Great point
I think the competition is so good that if you’re horse isn’t at peak condition, you lose. And racing is better than training when you’re running at the graded stakes level. I’m betting the horses with the longer layoffs just lost tge edge they needed to really be up there.
by TFTribe on Sep 24, 2011 9:35 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Thanks.
It is interesting to see that for layoff horses, the sprints are one of the more forgiving races to not have a recent race. Four of the last six Sprint winners had layoffs of six weeks or more, including both of Midnight Lutes wins. I wouldn’t have guessed that, but it makes some sense when you think about that race.
I had forgot how long Invasor had been off. Pretty impressive.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on Sep 24, 2011 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Also interesting
Of the 11 horses to win off of only three weeks rest, 7 were juveniles.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
that actually makes complete sense
They’re maturing so quickly that some of them probably surprised their connections in that last start. The flip side is that they may have used that race in lieu of a work session, a la Uncle Mo. Id lean towards the latter, since you can find a ton of races for 2yos that have very questionable competition at any level.
But with 2yos, anything is possible.
by TFTribe on Sep 24, 2011 3:38 PM EDT via iPhone app up reply actions
Yeah, when I first looked at those winners...
I was asking myself “how tough of a race did a lot of those juveniles come out of?” Like you wrote, there are lots of 2yo races where the winners are well ahead of the rest of the field.
That also makes some sense on the flip side with the sprinters: those are pretty grueling races given the high demand on running at the highest rate of speed possible for a short distance. Some are easier than others, but I can see why freshness would make sense as a significant factor in the sprints.
It might take me a few days, but I’m going to put together a spreadsheet looking at the layoffs for every BC race since the inception of the event; both for winners and all other horses in the field. Gonna take some time to enter and manipulate the data, but I’m interested to see how every horse with x days off has fared at the BC.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on Sep 24, 2011 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions
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