BREEDERS' CUP CLASSIC 2011: How do you rate the contenders?
by Matt Gardner on Sep 27, 2011 10:46 AM EDT
in Breeders' Cup
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A pretty simple question to kick off the Tuesday morning before Super Saturday: how would you rate the current contenders for the 2011 Breeders' Cup Classic? Which horses do you think will be the top five in terms of betting action on race day, assuming nothing significant changes during the races this weekend?
Below is as list of the top Classic contenders.* Three of the horses have already guaranteed a spot in the starting gate by winning a Breeders' Cup Challenge race - Acclamation, Coil, and Tizway. (First Dude also won a WAYI race but was retired due to injury.)
*This is just a quick list of contenders; if you think another horse deserves inclusion in the discussion, by all means, toss them in.
Acclamation
Coil
Tizway
Adios Charlie
Apart
Blind Luck (most likely going to Ladies' Classic)
Flat Out
Game On Dude
Giant Oak
Havre de Grace
Hymn Book
Prayer for Relief
Rattlesnake Bridge
Rule
Ruler On Ice
Shackleford
So You Think (NZ)
Stay Thirsty
To Honor and Serve
Twirling Candy
Uncle Mo
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Good discussion, forces a person to assign a real odds line (121%), helps for comparison shopping.
Assumptions: Stay Thirsty and Flat out finish 1-2 in JCGC, HdG wins for fun in Beldame, Mo wins the Kelso, Coil runs and looks much better, along with Shack in the IND D, Game on Dude destroys the weak field in the Goodwood. None of these assumptions, I don’t believe, very far away from what the morning lines will be in those races.
Breeders Cup Classic Post Time Odds:
HAVRE DE GRACE 6
Stay Thirsty 6
Uncle Mo 6
TIZWAY 7
SO YOU THINK 9
FLAT OUT 9
GAME ON DUDE 10
TWIRLING CANDY 11
To Honor and Serve 15
Coil 15
Shackleford 20
RULE 20
Ruler On Ice 30
GIANT OAK 30
Comments – if Tizway had not been sick, I’d have him as the 5:1 fave. But given the “out of sight, out of mind” mentality, I think he drifts a bit. Even thought I believe the extra rest will actually make him more likely to run well. The crazy “girl power” mentality of the betting public will hammer HdG at the windows. Ironically enough, in this case, as opposed to Zenyatta last year, I think she has the figures to justify it. She has a real shot, with the weight break, to win this. I can see GoD being a few pts lower and one of Stay Thirsty or Flat Out a few points higher if either one of them doesn’t finish top 3 in JCGC and if GoD really smokes’em out west. The Baffert name always gets bet, plus GoD is actually pretty fast.
Can also see the bottome feeders, drifting to much bigger (50:1+).
Picked Rule as last in, instead of Apart, but could certainly see Apart if he wins in Hawthorne, instead of Rule (who certainly will be the favourite).
I think the longshots are going to be pretty long when the windows open
Just due to the money on Havre, Stay Thirsty, Uncle Mo and Tizway. I think we’ll see some 50, 60 and 70/1 shots at the bottom of the board.
I’m curious to see what the public does with To Honor and Serve; I think you’re right in that he’ll fall into the mid-shot range. Just wondering where mid-shot will be for this race.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on Sep 27, 2011 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Just read that Coil is staying put, running in Goodwood. I think that makes it less likely he runs in race (even with the auto in ticket he has already punched) as it’s hard for me to see him beating an inform Game On Dude and Baffert does have Prayer For Relief also. This also, imo, makes it more likely Shackleford runs in the Classic as he now has has not much to beat at Hoosier Park (Wilburn, Decisive Moment, etc…).
Shack
If I owned Shack, I’d think about trying him in the Dirt Mile, if possible. I’m just not certain he can keep up with the best horses at 10f, just too much space to run him down. There is no way he gets the perfect trip that he did in the Preakness, especially with an additional 2.5 furlongs tacked on. I’m big on trying to win races though, but it seems that some owners look to be in the biggest possible races. I’d rather have more lower-grade black type wins than G1 places/shows (hell, I’d settle for ANY black-type). And despite the fact that both races are G1s, the Classic is like the Derby, it’s almost like a G0, the next level up when considering both class and pedigree.
I strongly agree with that...
I think the only way he gets 10f is if they leave him alone on the frontend and he walks through the opening six furlongs. I just don’t see that happening in the Classic (especially since Prayer for Relief wants to be up front). I know the connections think he doesn’t have to be on the lead, but he seems like a much better horse when he can control the pace.
He’d probably be the favorite in the Dirt Mile, or at least pretty close to it.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on Sep 27, 2011 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Ditto Above....
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
I liked Stay Thirsty several weeks back
Sorta drifted away from him…and recently am leaning back to him for the Classic (provided he runs).
What do you think of Game On Dude?
I know you liked him earlier in the year. He’s been forgotten a little this fall after a pretty good campaign this spring/summer.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on Sep 28, 2011 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes, I did
And I still am intrigued by him. Guess I’ll have to see how they’re training at Churchill.
He's an intriguing price play...
I like his tactical speed and the fact that he’s got a ton of heart.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on Sep 29, 2011 12:48 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I will get down with a WPS...
on Ruler On Ice. No awesome analytical reason, I just like him. And for some strange reason I’ve been nailing bombs in the last 3 BC’s (10/1 +) Might as well play em, you know they hit.
Never trust a man who doesn't drink.
by Noir Jim Tressel on Sep 28, 2011 1:32 AM EDT reply actions
I really liked his last start
And I haven’t really liked him much this year, but he’s one of the few horses that should really relish the distance.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on Sep 28, 2011 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions
going with To Honor and Serve
I like how he’s been training and how he has ran his last couple of races.
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