Keeneland September Yearling Sale (Updated)
by TFTribe on Sep 12, 2011 8:02 PM EDT
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PrintUpdate 3: Prices posted to hips I was watching.
Update 2: 3/4 to Zenyatta (and out of a G1 Stakes Winning mare) did not sell sold at a final bid of $750,000. Remarkable. (HRTV was wrong with their initial info)
UPDATE: So far the sale topper is 1.4 million. Three foals have sold for over one mil: 1 AP Indy, 1 Street Cry, and 1 Unbridled's song. More to come. BIds and averages are up so far over last year. But there' still lots to go.
The Keeneland September Yearling Sale begins next week. I think that more than any other off-track event it is a determinant and a measure of the strength of the thoroughbred industry. You can see new money, big new players, hot bloodlines, cooling bloodlines, and sheikhs throwing money around like they own oil fields or something. When the average is up, it's a good thing. When the highest bids are up, it's a great thing. I've perused the first 3 books (there are a total of seven) and have pulled out a few interesting cases.
But before I get into the specific hip numbers, a little rundown for the uninitiated. Each horse is given a hip number. Literally, this is a sticker with a number that is placed on the colt/filly's hip. Every horse is blocked off by book. The lower the number book your horse is in, the better bred it is considered by Keeneland. Inside of each book, the horses are ordered by the first letter of the dam's name, so lower hip number does not perfectly equate better breeding.
The first two nights (Monday and Tuesday) are considered the select portions of the sale. This is when the heavy hitters (read: Repole, et al) drop the huge money. Wednesday-Sunday is the rest of the sale. A total of several thousand colts and fillies will cross the auction block this week.
I've pulled out a number of very interesting horses. I'm not saying these will be the highest bids nor the most successful runners. But these are just interesting. Now every horse is completely sight unseen by me, so they may be crooked as hell, but I'm just going off their page.
Hip 153: Street Sense - Cappucino Bay (Bail Jumper) - 1/2 to Medaglio D'Oro - Medaglio is super hot right now due to the fact that he's Rachel Alexandra's sire. The first book is filled with MD's. (sold for 200k)
Hip 183: Elusive Quality - Kolda (Strawberry Road (ARG)) - Full sibling to Quality Road. Kolda's dam was a sold producer too. (sold for 650k)
Hip 244: Medaglio D'Oro - Ron's Lady - 1/4 to Lawyer Ron (RNA 120k)
Hip 261: Scat Daddy - Russian Broad (Broad Brush) - 1/4 to Indian Charlie. With Uncle Mo's success, may draw some interest from that crown. I really wouldn't be surprised to see Repole but this one. (sold for 220k)
Hip 269: Tale of the Cat - Satin Sunrise (Mr. Leader) - Full to Lionheart. With him a proven stallion, this could be tempting. (sold for 260k)
Hip: 295: Medaglio D'Oro - She's the Queen (Lasting Approval) - 3/4 to Rachel Alexandria. Someone will drop some skrilla money on this one. (sold for 170k, must have bad films)
Now these aren't necessarily the ones I'd buy, but I find the repeats of breedings interesting. How often does lightning strike twice? But then again, maybe you want to just try to get lucky. But most of these aren't bred for racing, they're bred for commercial appeal, and those are two entirely different tactics for choosing who to breed to.
My choices? Hips 7(update:350k) + 337 (100k) (Dynafomer from a Carson city mare). Hip185 (out) too.
We'll see how it goes. I hope lots of money gets spent in Lexington, that's always a good sign.
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I love that Dynaformer/Carson City pedigree
Very nice.
Keeneland usually has live video streaming of their sales, which I enjoy watching the first few days. (Video link)
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
I just saw the cataglog download in Excel
Is this the first year they’ve done this in Excel? I don’t remember seeing it before. That makes it SO much easier to look through the hips.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
One more thing...
I noticed lots of Candy Ride’s in the sale which seems appropriate given how versatile his offspring have been – dirt, turf, synthetic.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
WTBOA Sale.
I attended the sale yesterday, my first auction of any sort, and it was a fun experience.
Herman Sarkowsky, who i’ve been told hasn’t aged in about 15 years. Seemed to have come specifically to bid on the Candy Ride colt. Which he ended up bowing out of when the colt hit 105,000$. My first thought was come on Herman! You got so much F U money, but of course its important to remember, you don’t become rich by over spending for things.
The second highest fetching horse, was a colt that is a full brother to Noosa Beach, and what a strapping colt it was, although some of the people nearby were discussing one of its knee’s. It was purchased by Eltaes Stable, and based on what interaction I saw between them and the Harwood’s it may be in partnership, or most certainly trained by Doris.
Obviously most these yearlings are unnamed, but I would enjoy following them during their two year old campaigns, Is there an easy way to look up horses based on the sire and dam?
There sure is.
You can search for the dam. Then select reports from the left hand side and progeny. So long as you can remember the year the colt/filly was born, you can click on the name. Pretty easy. Earnings are very rarely fully updated so you may have to search equibase to get the exact race results and lifetime earnings for any specific horse.
But most of these aren’t bred for racing, they’re bred for commercial appeal, and those are two entirely different tactics for choosing who to breed to.
That is a fascinating sentence. I know that ultimately it is all about the breeding shed, but isn’t it this kind of attitude that leads to The Green Monkey? I’d rather have a horse that wins more than I would one that has breeding, because don’t wins eventually equal shed dollars, too. I really hope Animal Kingdom proves to be a game-changer.
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Good point.
As I was watching the sale last night, and seeing horse after horse sell for 300k, 400k, etc., I kept wondering: how many of these will make that money back on the track versus the potential value in the breeding shed? And along those same lines, how many of the less expensive horses will far exceed that value on the track?
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on Sep 12, 2011 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
That, my friends, is exactly why this is a bigger gamble than mist you can make at the track.
I think most are bought to run, but at the first sign that they won’t be great, and with a great, black type laden pedigree, you immediately take them to the shed.
by TFTribe on Sep 12, 2011 7:54 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
What did you think of Hip 7 last night?
I don’t know much (anything) about judging the value of yearling, or a horse of any age, but I was surprised that Giant’s Causeway/Carson City didn’t meet the reserve.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on Sep 12, 2011 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I think three things go into that
First, Carson cities have the propensity for being kinda crooked, so who knows what the films look like (that’s always the huge wildcard). Second, when you’re talking about a turf-heavy pedigree i think it chases off the big guys looking for triple crown-type runners. Third, when you’re in the select portion of the sale I think that owners/agents tend to jack up the reserve knowing that they can sell the horse on the side after the sale for whatever the highest bid was (well, usually) if it RNAs.
That makes sense.
The only thing I could come up with was possible conformation issues but I didn’t think about the turf pedigree value, which makes a ton of sense.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on Sep 12, 2011 8:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think that it's less value in turf horses
So much as it is that some of those high end, deep pocketed, cherry pickers aren’t in on it to bid it up.
My bet is bad films though.
Gotcha.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
by Matt Gardner on Sep 12, 2011 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Hey, TFT...
did you see my comments in your freshman sire post? I would love to hear your answers to those questions, perhaps in their own post.
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.
Keeneland
This is somewhat off-topic but I’m really impressed the way Keeneland has integrated technology into their sales on the website: the live video with the catalog page, the flash results, excel catalog and results, social media on Twitter and Facebook. Maybe this is par for the course with all sales, I wouldn’t know (I generally don’t follow sales very closely), but it’s a great use of the available technology. Additionally, the Equineline app for iPad with full catalogs of this and other sales is fantastic and is something the industry has to do in all areas going forward.
I’m not naive enough to think that coming up with a few mobile apps and video streams alone will spark massive interest in the sport from non-fans, but the sport has to keep up with new technology. I’ve been disappointed with DRF and their lack of a good mobile app (Formulator won’t work on iPad because it’s Flash-based), as well as some of the other industry leaders. We need to make it easy to follow the sport, in all areas – racing, wagering and breeding. Keeneland has done that with their sales. While that won’t spark handle growth overnight, I think it’s a key part of long-term growth.
"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."
And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace
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