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2012 Lecomte Result: Mr. Bowling Gets Up At The Wire

Mr. Bowling, sent to the gate as the 7/2 co-favorite, got up in the final yards to edge Z Dager and Shared Property in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes at the Fair Grounds. The winner stalked in mid-pack through as longshots Alexander Thegreat and Hero of Order set solid opening fractions of 23.21 and 47.22. At the top of the stretch the field fanned five or six wide, with Shared Property in the middle of the track looking like he had the momentum to go right on by Z Dager. Shared Property flattened out in the lane, as did Z Dager, allowing Mr. Bowling find the finish line first.

Truth be told, this race isn't going to win any style points. The pace was honest for the first half-mile but really fell apart in the later stages. The third quarter split went in 25.66 seconds, while the fourth quarter was run in a pedestrian 26.47.

We'll have to wait to see how the variant and figures break out for this day at the Fair Grounds but I'm doubtful that this race is going to earn a big number.

Mr. Bowling is a three-year-old son of Istan out of an Irish Tower mare (Goldilock's). He is trained by Larry Jones and was ridden by Robby Albarado.

The $0.50 Pick 4 returned a large $16,124.60 for a $0.50 base bet.

Fractions:
1/4: 23.21
1/2: 47.22
3/4: 1:12.88
Mile: 1:39.35
Finish:1:43.49

Internal Splits:
1/4: 23.21
1/2: 24.01
3/4: 25.66
Mile: 26.47
Finish: 4.14

Below are the payouts for the Lecomte Stakes:

Star-divide

Win: Mr. Bowling ($9.20, $4.80, $4.00)
Place: Z Dager ($4.80, $3.60)
Show: Shared Property ($3.80)

$1 Exacta: $21.60
$1 Trifecta: $121.20
$0.10 Super: $227.61
$1 Daily Double: $155.30
$1 Pick 3: $580.00
$0.50 Pick 4: $16,124.60

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I liked his race at AP a little more

but I think he can move forward off this race. Unfortunately, this race kind of mirrored a lot of the early 3YO races the last few years: a lot of horses sucking some serious wind in the final furlongs.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace

by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2012 10:58 AM EST up reply actions  

Beyer/Equibase figures

Lecomte came back at a 79 BSF; Equibase gave a 92. Pretty soft numbers from both.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace

by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2012 10:59 AM EST reply actions  

Ouch indeed

I tend to not put a ton of stock in minor variations on speed figures when comparing horses or races, but when a race comes up really low (and Equibase’s scale tends to be higher, so a 92 is pretty low for a graded stakes race) that’s a pretty big clue that the race was soft.

That Equibase figure is the lowest for a graded stakes race so far in 2012. Small sample size… but still not very encouraging.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace

by Matt Gardner on Jan 23, 2012 2:45 PM EST up reply actions  

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