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2012 Southwest Stakes Results: It's An All Baffert-Bejarano Affair At Oaklawn

It was a good day to be Bob Baffert and Rafael Bejarano at Oaklawn Park after those connections guided Castaway and Secret Circle in the split divisions of the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes.

Castaway broke alertly from the far outside and secured a stalking position next to early pacesetter Majestic Stride. Castaway took command of the race at the top of the stretch and was never seriously threatened inside the final furlong. Longshot Jake Mo got up to finish second, 3 ¾ lengths behind the winner. Reckless Jerry held on for third, while Ring It Up rounded out the superfecta.

Castaway is a three-year-old son of Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense out of a Storm Cat mare (Priceless Storm) owned by the Ballydoyle trio of Magnier, Tabor and Smith.

Star-divide

Win: 11-Castaway ($15.40, $9.40, $7.20)
Place: 3-Jake Mo ($19.00, $7.40)
Show: 8-Reckless Jerry ($4.20)

$2 Exacta: $376.00
$1 Trifecta: $1,065.40
$1 Superfecta: $10,240.60
$1 Pick 3: $66.40

Division One Fractions:
1/4: 23.56
1/2: 48.08
3/4: 1:12.60
7/8: 1:25.23
Mile: 1:38.09

Division One Internal Splits:
1/4: 23.56
1/2: 24.52
3/4: 24.52
7/8: 12.63
Mile: 12.86

In the second division, Secret Circle sat just off early leader Scatman through strong early fractions, pulled alongside the pacesetter at the top of the stretch, briefly drifted out in mid-stretch, and finally pulled ahead to win by a half a length at the wire. Scatman was clear by 5 ½ lengths for the second spot, while Adirondack King closed well to finish a distant third. Pee H Dee rounded out the superfecta.

Secret Circle is now 4-for-5 in his career with wins in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint, and the Southwest Stakes. He was a runner-up to Out of Bounds in the G3-Sham in early January. Despite the victory by Secret Circle, there are still going to be serious doubts as to how far he's going to want to run. He has enough stamina to win at a mile and probably a little longer, but it remains to be seen whether 10 furlongs is within his comfort zone. Regardless of whether Secret Circle ever gets the classic distance, he's proven himself to be an exceptionally consistent horse in the early part of his career.

In terms of a straight up comparison between the two divisions, Secret Circle's performance was a full second better than the race of Castaway. The pace was faster in the second division and the final time was faster. The only part of Division One that ended up quicker was the final ¼ mile, but by just three tenths of a second - 25.49 to 25.83.

Secret Circles is a three-year-old son of Eddington out of a Dixieland Band mare (Ragtime Hope).

Win: 9-Secret Circle ($3.20, $3.20, $2.40)
Place: 3-Scatman ($6.40, $4.60)
Show: 2-Adirondack King ($3.60)

$2 Exacta: $23.20
$1 Trifecta: $45.80
$1 Superfecta: $337.40
$1 Southwest Daily Double: $26.00

Division Two Fractions:
1/4: 23.21
1/2: 46.81
3/4: 1:11.25
7/8: 1:24.23
Finish: 1:37.08

Division Two Internal Splits:
1/4: 23.21
1/2: 23.60
3/4: 24.44
7/8: 12.98
Finish: 12.85

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Impressive in both divisions

In the 1st, I really liked Jake Mo. I just didn’t see Castaway as a real threat. But when you look at him, he’s been better and better as he’s routed. Not sure if Jake Mo can amass the winnings necessary to get into the Derby, but I do like him. He’s gotten better each start this year as he’s gotten more comfortable running round two turns.

In the 2nd, I actually hit the exacta with Secret Circle and Scatman. Scatman really impressed me with his gutsy run, plus I just love Scat Daddy. Secret Circle is fantastic, but I just don’t know if he’s got enough to go another quarter at Churchill. He galloped out well, but didn’t seem to be as strong as you’d like down the stretch.

It was interesting though when comparing times. Secret Circle and Scatman ran a full second faster than Castaway did. That’s five full lengths. I think this may be one of the few times when direct time comparison might actually be worthwhile. Pace was somewhat similar and Oaklawn did a good job of splitting up the running styles and the talent between both divisions.

On another note, I wonder how they’ll annotate the Southwest Stakes win in the winner’s race history? Since there are two of them this year, I’m not sure what they’ll do, if anything at all.

by TFTribe on Feb 21, 2012 10:24 AM EST reply actions  

I agree on Secret Circle

Really nice colt but I don’t see 10f in his future. He seems to drift out a bit in the stretch in most of his races and I wonder how much of that is being tired or just a little green.

Scatman should be interesting to watch going forward; was really nice to see him improve while stretching out.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace

by Matt Gardner on Feb 21, 2012 12:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Oaklawn

Great day of racing at Oaklawn, from top to bottom the card was really fun. I wish there was a tool that would allow you to compare handle with previous years, or between tracks etc…. that would be a lot of fun to look at.

The distance may be too much for Secret Circle, but he does have a good running style for the classics, I like how he has been able to sit right up off the lead the last couple starts, and power into the stretch, at least I know traffic issues shouldn’t be an issue should he make the derby (obviously unless the post is brutal).

Baffert really seems loaded with 3 year olds this year, both fillies and colts. His best derby prospect (Fed Biz?) hasn’t even raced in a graded stakes yet. Really been impressed with how well Baffert’s training right now.

I also respect his honesty, after the San Vicente, he was interviewed by Santa Anita Live (youtube), and said he really thought he had mismanaged Drill pretty badly the last few months specifically citing Delta as a mistake.

by Sti1gar on Feb 21, 2012 3:16 PM EST reply actions  

Agree on handle; would love to be able to easily compare.

The only thing I heard was TVG mention that they (TVG) set a record for the amount of handle they took in for a single Oaklawn card. If the TVG handle was that high, I’m guessing that overall OP did quite well.

I really like Secret Circle; he’s a tough colt. Curious to see how his year unfolds from here on out.

"A bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office."

And Down The Stretch They Come | @PressThePace

by Matt Gardner on Feb 21, 2012 4:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Honesty

Amen on the honesty comment.

I am still waiting on the public apology from Steve Asmussen on his handling of Rachel Alexandra.

by Swale on Feb 22, 2012 9:19 AM EST up reply actions  


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