I suppose we're far enough along in Derby prep season to finally come out with a Top 10. More and more, the last few years I've found it difficult to really rank any of the contenders in any meaningful way. It seems that we come down to playing the tote board more than anything on Derby day; so many horses are offered at overlay and underlay odds that you end up betting the odds more than the horse, more so than in other races.
My Top 10 really isn't a definitive ranking in my mind, I could see myself betting on 70% or 80% of those listed depending on what their odds offer on Derby day. Simply put, I don't see a ton of different between my #1 Gemologist and my #7 I'll Have Another, but if I was constructing my personal odds line, I'd more than likely rank them in that order. Additionally, some of these ranking are more a projection of what I think the colt could do when stretched out to 10 furlongs; I think Creative Cause, Alpha and Take Charge Indy can handle the extra distance of the Derby better than some of the others.
Below is my current Top 10.
|1||Gemologist||Can't find fault with a perfect record. Was 2-for-2 at Churchill as a 2yo.
|2||Creative Cause||Took a step back in SA Derby but still an all-around solid colt.|
|3||Hansen||If he can stalk in the Derby like he did in the Gotham…|
|4||Alpha||Ran big despite poor trip in the Wood. Should enjoy more ground.|
|5||Union Rags||He won't off much value in the Derby; how far does he want to go?|
|6||Bodemeister||Needs a good run in Ark. Derby to make the field.|
|7||I'll Have Another||Solid in both his starts for 2012. Improving.|
|8||Dullahan||Could be a bit of a sleeper in the Blue Grass and the Derby.|
|9||Take Charge Indy||Should get better as he stretches out.|
|10||Secret Circle||Not sure how far he wants to run, but he wins races.|