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Lucky Ducks 50 Horse Racing Handicapping Tips for 2014



Paul Simon once wrote about 50 ways to leave your lover. Here are the Duck`s 50 ways to save your bankroll…………..

  1. Cheap horses that run from behind – usually stay behind regardless of distance.

  2. Throw out anything Andy Serling recommends at Belmont or Aqueduct. I’ve seen him pick two horses in a three horse race and still be wrong

  3. The daily double is an often overlooked wager with great payouts

  4. If playing Woodbine, make sure the horse can be within 5 lengths of the lead at the last turn because it’s almost impossible to come from far back due to that turn.

  5. Throw out the 9 and 10 post horses on two turn races on a 5/8 mile track

  6. Buy a big black felt pen – and then cover up the Beyer Speed Figures. Use your own judgement. Once you start looking at those numbers it’s easy to get lazy. If you insist on using these then remember that turf Beyers are almost always 5-10 points higher than dirt.

  7. Playing a show bet is for those who bet horses names. The ONLY exception is when there is a whack on money on a favorite and if it runs out of the money then the show payoffs can be huge. This happens at smaller tracks more often than you think.

  8. Allowance horses coming back with a layoff and steady works are NOT a throw-out. 5000 claimers with the same pattern are a throw-out.

  9. If you are going to bet the horses, turn off the repeats of the Big Bang Theory. Either play them or watch TV..don`t do both.

  10. Turf races of a mile and an eighth or longer are, in my opinion, the hardest race for horses to keep their form.

  11. Look at no less than the last three races of a horse. If you focus too much on the last race then you`ll miss nice payoffs. The best longshots are usually found with horses than can run comparable races to the favorite but have not done so in the last two outings.

  12. If you have access to race replays…use them. Most people are too lazy to do so but they will aid in forming a solid opinion.

  13. Want to have some fun… play straight 20 cent superfectas on Australia races. It`s cheap, and with each race having about a billion horses its better than a lotto ticket. You can get lucky and hit a grand for 20 cents.

  14. I don`t care what tracks you play, just don`t play more than two at a time. It takes time to handicap a race.

  15. In a race with 10 horse or more, a favorite from the inside post must be able to be with two lengths of the lead at the first call –otherwise it`ll get buried behind a wall of horses. You would be surprised at how many favorites you can toss using this angle.

  16. In races with 6 or fewer horses, examine the exacta payouts – you can find some jewels in there.

  17. If you don`t look at jockey and trainer stats and then bet a horse with an 0-28 trainer and an 1-56 jockey – would you please send me the money instead.

  18. Front end speed rules on a muddy track. Don`t worry if the horse is a chronic quitter – it`s worth the investment.

  19. I mentioned not to listen to Andy Serling – actually don`t listen to anybody on TV.

  20. Be prepared to switch your handicapping thought after the first three races on a card. If a track is speed favoring, you`d better recognize it or flush your money down the toilet.

  21. The best bet in racing remains the horse dropping down from Maiden Special Weight down to claimers if the horse has run out of the money in its first three lifetime starts in MSW. The first race in MSW is often just hope. The second race is the horse has some ability and if the trainer runs in that company again then there is belief that the horse has ability. Once the drop down occurs – payoffs can be made.

  22. The 14% pick 5 takeout bet is awesome. It`s the best new bet in racing.

  23. If you can`t spend at least $120 on the pick 6 – save your money.

  24. A great bet is a pick 3. Bet single-single-all and you have a great chance to catch some terrific prices.

  25. Turf sprints are brutal. If you bet them, you’re a better handicapper than me, but throw out speed horses on the outside than won`t be able to clear to the lead.

  26. Too many players focus on the third race off a layoff, but the second race back is where you can get good odds. Usually by the third race back, the horses form is exposed.

  27. On smaller tracks, Mountaineer, Portland etc, you can steal a whole pick 4 or pick 3 pool by selecting one long price horse. Don`t ignore these possibilities.

  28. Superfecta`s will suck your bankroll dry. It`s simply too hard to pick a winner – never mind who`s going to run fourth.

  29. Watch for horses that made a big turn move on the outside in its previous race. It’s a sign of improvement even if they flatten in the stretch. This is especially useful if the horse is shortening up in distance.

  30. Read the conditions of the race. A horse that looks good running in a non-winner in the last 6 months may not be a good bet against open claimers.

  31. If you are having trouble picking winners, change up your handicapping by picking horses to throw out first. That will make your ultimate selection process simpler."

  32. Keep stats of your wagers. Find out what races fit your style. I kill at 7 furlong races. I suck at turf routes. It helps me keep the bankroll fresh.

  33. Make sure your bankroll for horses is extra money. Picking winners to pay for food is impossible and not much fun.

  34. Remember when I said superfecta`s are tough. The HI-5 is worse. Don`t bother.

  35. Pick 4`s can be very profitable. Play one single and it`s very affordable.

  36. Don`t be so quick to throw out a horse who is moving from 6 furlongs to 6 and a half. Too many people throw out solid picks thinking that extra half furlong is too far. It`s not as far as you think and a horse will cover it in about 5-6 seconds.

  37. Bullet training works often lower a horses odds, even though they can be bad for a horse pre-race. Look for steady training works instead.

  38. Horses that move up or down one level are nothing to get excited about. Unless it`s from maiden specials to claimers I wouldn`t even worry about it.

  39. Yes. Lone speed is still a great bet.

  40. You know why the best jockeys win 20% of their races – they usually have the best horse, but use that to your advantage when they don`t and play against. You will get better odds on the horse you like.

  41. Do not bet ``value`` horses to win. If you think an even money favorite is the likely winner, but you don`t like the odds then pass the race. Why bet a 8-1 horse when even you don`t think it will win Your much better off to bet both of the horses in a multi-race exotic. You stay alive if the even price horse wins and have a chance at a good payoff if the longer shot comes out on top.

  42. Horses than usually break poorly will continue to do so. Don`t hope a slow breaker suddenly figures it out.

  43. Horses coming back from a year off rarely win. Unless it`s Da`Hoss in the Breeders Cup and blows up your pick 6 ticket.

  44. Horses breaking their maiden can bring great prices next race back. People dismiss the form too fast and the odds are often juicy.

  45. Identify a track that suits your style. For some reason my style works at Tampa Bay Downs. I couldn`t win a handicapping contest at Gulfstream Park even if the only two entrants were me and Andy Serling.

  46. The rail on muddy tracks is usually the worst place to be. If there are three speedballs, you can toss the one that will be stuck against the rail.

  47. Drink coffee from a paper cup. They don`t break things when you throw them after losing a photo finish or getting disqualified. (I learned this one the hard way – I needed a new TV anyway!)

  48. Take a look at the horse`s record at the distance its running today. If it is 0-13, why shouldn`t it be 0-14 instead of 1-14

  49. Don`t ever, ever, ever try and understand a stewards decision. You`ll be wrong.

  50. It`s only a game. Life is short. It`s all OK.


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