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The 2014 Kentucky Derby is just around the corner, and the excitement is building. From dreams of making big money, to simply enjoying the ambiance of the Greatest Day in Racing, I cannot wait for the Kentucky Derby.
Here are my main observations from watching the Prep Races, from the El Camino Real Derby (Feb. 15th) at Golden Gate to the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland (April 19th):
- California Chrome VISUALLY appears to be the best horse.......but I worry about the history of CA horses in the Derby......and if he goes off at 2-1 with history not on his side, is that worth it?
- If I liked a horse in my Turfway Park Handicapping contest, I gotta stick with them, don't I? Intense Holiday got me a 1st (Fair Grounds Risen Star) and 2nd (Louisiana Derby), while General A Rod got me a 2nd (Gulstream Fountain of Youth) and 3rd (Florida Derby). I liked these horses before, I think they can close even better in the future.....I like General A Rod and Intense Holiday because I have before, I can't jump ship.
- BETTING-WISE:As always, this is a tough race to handicap. This year more than ever.......do I key on 1 horse? Or, pending the entries on the races before the Derby, should I see if the earlier races are more clear and have a Pick 3 ending with an ALL wheel in the Derby since anybody can win this race. (Easier said than done, I am thinking Race 9 Pick 3: Top horse with Top 2 horses race 10 with ALL Derby). But is a bet like that worth it?
Since I think California Chrome looks great and will be a huge favorite, but has flaws due to historically poor performances by CA favorites in the Derby, is it worth the bet?
I thought the recent payouts may help me structure my bet, regardless of who ends up as my top picks.
SO BELOW I HAVE THE PAYOUTS FOR THE PAST 6 KENTUCKY DERBY RACES. I TRACKED WIN / PLACE / SHOW, EXACTA, TRIFECTA, SUPERFECTA, AND PICK 3:
2013 Derby
16 Orb: win - $12.80, place - $7.40, show - $5.40
4 Golden Soul: place - $38.60, show - $19.20
3 Revolutionary: show - $5.40
5 Normandy Invasion
$2 Exacta: $981.60
$2 Trifecta: $6,925.60
$2 Superfecta: $57,084.00
$2 Pick 3: $74.00
2012 Derby
19 I'll Have Another: win - $32.60, place- $13.80, show- $9.00
6 Bodemeister: place $6.20, show - $5.60
5 Dullahan: show - $7.20
13 Went the Devil Well
$2 Exacta: 306.60
$2 Trifecta: $3,065.60
$2 Superfecta: $96,092.80
$2 Pick 3: $3,297.40
2011 Derby
16 Animal Kingdom: win - $43.80, place - $19.60, show - $13.00
19 Nehro: place - $8.80, show - $6.40
13 Mucho Macho Man: show - $ 7.00
14 Shackleford
$2 Exacta: $329.80
$2 Trifecta: $3,952.40
$2 Superfecta: $48,126.00
$2 Pick 3: 4,738.20
2010 Derby
4 Super Saver: win - $18.00, place - $8.80, show - $6.00
2 Ice Box: place - $11.20, show $8.00
10 Paddy O Prado: show - $7.40
9 Make Music for Me
$2 Exacta: $152.40
$2 Trifecta: $2,337.40
$2 Superfecta: $202,569.20
$2 Pick 3: $5,726.20
2009 Derby
8 Mine That Bird: win - $103.20, place - $54.00, show - $25.80
16 Pioneer of the Nile: place - $8.40, show - $6.40
2 Musket Man: show - $12.oo
7 Papa Clem
$2 Exacta: $2,074.80
$2 Trifecta: $41,500.60
$2 Superfecta: $557,006.40
$2 Pick 3: 2,905.00
2008 Derby
20 Big Brown: win - $6.80, place - $5.00, show - $4.80
5 Eight Belles: place - $10.60, show - $6.40
16 Denis of Cork: show - $11.60
2 Tale of Ekati
$2 ExactaL $141.60
$2 Trifecta: $3,445.60
$2 Superfecta: $58,737.80
$2 Pick 3: $732.80
AFTER LOOKING AT THE PAYOUTS OVER THE PAST 6 YEARS, HERE ARE MY THOUGHTS IN RELATION TO THIS YEAR'S KENTUCKY DERBY:
- Even though this is a tough field, the payout for the Pick 3 has not been too large in the past couple of years, so maybe stay away from the pick 3.
- To me, the TRIFECTA seems like the best value, between being an affordable bet and huge payouts. You could do a 5 or 6 horse box for $0.50 cents and it would only be $30-60 dollars, and if you hit, it should pay nice, even if a low odd horse gets in there
- If you like California Chrome......look at Big Brown's payouts......there wasn't much difference between Win and Show...so call me crazy, but IF you like him to win, might as well put the $100 on him to SHOW instead of WIN.....payout would be slightly less, but not by that much, and less risk. I usually hate show bets, but look at Big Brown's payoffs. (This is IF and only IF you are an old-school guy and don't like exotic betting)
- The number 16 sure is hot the past couple of years.......in the top 4 in 4 of the past 6 Derbies. Who will be #16 this year? My favorite number is 3.....when the hell will a #3 win the Derby, #3 is nowhere to be seen recently
- I STILL HAVEN'T A CLUE WHAT MY FINAL PICKS WILL BE, but I have early hunches (1: California Chrome, 2: Intense Holiday, 3: General A Rod, 4: Tapiture, 5: Danza, 6: Ride on Curlin)
I still have a lot of thinking to do, see final entries, post positions, see final odds, see jockeys, etc. As of right now though, STRUCTURALLY thinking, most of money will go towards a Trifecta, and Win / Place / Show money on my Top 3.
At the end of the day, I hope to be lifting my hands in the air in celebration, feeling like one cool dude for making the pick that won "millions," (queue Dr. Evil lifting his pinky finger to the corner of his lips). Good luck to all.
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* Picture References: Photos supplied from www.paulickreport.com & www.americasbestracing.net &www.derbyexperiences.com, & laweekly.com, in that order. 4/22/14