And Down The Stretch They Come: FanPosts

Fishing for a winner: 2013 Kentucky Oaks

2013-05-02T19:45:05Z

The Kentucky Oaks

Inaugurated in 1875, the Kentucky Oaks is the Kentucky Derby for 3-year old fillies. The race is held annually at Churchill Downs the day before the Kentucky Derby (on Friday). Post time is at 5:45 pm EST, and the weather is iffy at this point, with scattered thunderstorms in the forecast both Friday and Saturday. However, it seems the bulk of the rain and showers will be Saturday, so Friday may turn out all right. Just have to wait and see.

This year’s Kentucky Oaks field is perhaps one of the deepest fields seen in many years (see below). There's 10 horses running this year, which is a bit less than the last three years (14, 13, and 14, respectively). It's worth noting that it was 11 horses, but Flashy Gray scratched the day after the post-selection due to a foot bruise. Below are the entrants, along with their post position, jockey, trainer, and morning line odds (courtesy of anddownthestretchtheycome.com).

So who do I like? Well, first, let’s take a look at some statistics regarding the Oaks. Did you know that nearly half of the favorites in the last 20 years finished either 1st or 2nd? Also in the last 20 years, only three horses have won from outside post 9? Ok well that may not play as big a role, but inside position helps in this race. Statistically, the best post position in the Oaks is the 5th post, followed by the 4th post.

My Picks:

Winner: Dreaming of Julia (3-1) ridden by J. Velazquez

Why she’ll win:

This horse is a straight-up BEAST. She won the Gulfstream Park Oaks by nearly 22 lengths! She posted a BRIS figure of 107 in that race and a Beyer Speed figure of 114!!! It’s very rare that those type of numbers are flukes, and while she may not top that effort, I think she’ll be pretty darn close. For what it’s worth, her time at the Gulfstream Oaks was nearly 2 seconds faster than Orb’s time in the Florida Derby that day (I don’t like comparing times across races because there’s always different factors). One other fact most people are leaving out, is that the Gulfstream Oaks is a 1-1/8 mile race, the same as the Oaks. Her workouts at Churchill Downs have been solid, so she has no faults in that department.

Why she’ll lose:

I hope not! Let’s be honest though, this race is the best of the best. None of these horses have faced the competition that they will face tomorrow. Julia will be facing a much faster pace than she’s used to, and will have champion horses up front to catch like Beholder, and Unlimited Budget. She’s not a lock to win, but I would be absolutely shocked if she didn’t hit the board.

Runner-Up: Midnight Lucky (9:2) ridden by R. Bejarano

Why she’ll place:

She broke the track-record in her win at the Sunland Park Oaks running 1-1/16 miles in 1:41.06! It seems that track was fast (see Governor Charlie), but opening up to win by 8 lengths and setting a track record is still impressive. Even more impressive, have been Lucky’s works at Churchill Downs this week. She made Code West look silly, and has had some of the best works an owner could ask for. A very solid pedigree doesn’t hurt her chances either.

Why she won’t place:

She’s very inexperienced (only run twice), and hasn’t faced very stellar competition. This is a BIG leap up for her, and many feel she won’t be able to handle it. Despite the fact that she set the track record at Sunland, her speed figures weren’t anything to write home about.

Show: Unlimited Budget (7:2) ridden by J. Castellano

Why she’ll show:

Undefeated and battle-tested, she’s the real deal. Let me make this clear, she could WIN. She’s raced at 1-1/8, and defeated Emollient in the process. Her style indicates she will be there in the end, and her works have indicated that too. Perhaps no one has put in more eye-catching works at Churchill than Unlimited Budget. Great post position doesn’t hurt either.

Why she’ll miss:

Her speed figures did regress a small bit in her last race, and she doesn’t have the flashiness and finishing touch of Julia or Lucky. It’s hard to find any faults with her as of yet. I just like Midnight Lucky a bit more, that’s all.

Hitting the board: Beholder (7:2) ridden by G. Gomez

I think Beholder is overmatched in this race. I know some people are ranting and raving like lunatics that he will win. Who knows, its horse racing…it’s always a possibility! I just don’t think he will. I think the pace is too much for him and he gets caught by Julia, Lucky and Budget after the final turn. I also like Rose to Gold as a longshot, but am worried she just may be too slow to keep up with the rest of these top Fillies, especially since she likes to be on or close to the lead.

I hope you guys enjoyed my first (of what I hope to be regular) ‘official’ selections and feel free to comment on who you like. Tomorrow I’ll post my Kentucky Derby selections.

Well, it's that time of year again. The first weekend in May is the Super Bowl of Horse Racing. For the average sports fan, let's be honest...they don't really care. For the casual horse racing fan, they may check the blurb on ESPN, look at the Morning Line favorites and think they've struck oil! For Horse Racing aficionados, this weekend is the culmination of almost 1-1/2 years of watching horses develop from 2-year olds into legitimate contenders for the Triple Crown. Owners, trainers, and jockeys alike are vying for an opportunity to be enshrined in greatness, and earning the highest paydays that Horse Racing has to offer. We, as fans and handicappers, also have an opportunity to capitalize on the biggest races of the year, so let's take a look.

The Kentucky Oaks
Inaugurated in 1875, the Kentucky Oaks is the Kentucky Derby for 3-year old fillies. The race is held annually at Churchill Downs the day before the Kentucky Derby (on Friday). Post time is at 5:45 pm EST, and the weather is iffy at this point, with scattered thunderstorms in the forecast both Friday and Saturday. However, it seems the bulk of the rain and showers will be Saturday, so Friday may turn out all right. Just have to wait and see.

This year’s Kentucky Oaks field is perhaps one of the deepest fields seen in many years (see below). There's 10 horses running this year, which is a bit less than the last three years (14, 13, and 14, respectively). It's worth noting that it was 11 horses, but Flashy Gray scratched the day after the post-selection due to a foot bruise. Below are the entrants, along with their post position, jockey, trainer, and morning line odds (courtesy of anddownthestretchtheycome.com).

So who do I like? Well, first, let’s take a look at some statistics regarding the Oaks. Did you know that nearly half of the favorites in the last 20 years finished either 1st or 2nd? Also in the last 20 years, only three horses have won from outside post 9? Ok well that may not play as big a role, but inside position helps in this race. Statistically, the best post position in the Oaks is the 5th post, followed by the 4th post.

My Picks:

Winner: Dreaming of Julia (3-1) ridden by J. Velazquez
Why she’ll win:
This horse is a straight-up BEAST. She won the Gulfstream Park Oaks by nearly 22 lengths! She posted a BRIS figure of 107 in that race and a Beyer Speed figure of 114!!! It’s very rare that those type of numbers are flukes, and while she may not top that effort, I think she’ll be pretty darn close. For what it’s worth, her time at the Gulfstream Oaks was nearly 2 seconds faster than Orb’s time in the Florida Derby that day (I don’t like comparing times across races because there’s always different factors). One other fact most people are leaving out, is that the Gulfstream Oaks is a 1-1/8 mile race, the same as the Oaks. Her workouts at Churchill Downs have been solid, so she has no faults in that department.
Why she’ll lose:
I hope not! Let’s be honest though, this race is the best of the best. None of these horses have faced the competition that they will face tomorrow. Julia will be facing a much faster pace than she’s used to, and will have champion horses up front to catch like Beholder, and Unlimited Budget. She’s not a lock to win, but I would be absolutely shocked if she didn’t hit the board.

Runner-Up: Midnight Lucky (9:2) ridden by R. Bejarano
Why she’ll place:
She broke the track-record in her win at the Sunland Park Oaks running 1-1/16 miles in 1:41.06! It seems that track was fast (see Governor Charlie), but opening up to win by 8 lengths and setting a track record is still impressive. Even more impressive, have been Lucky’s works at Churchill Downs this week. She made Code West look silly, and has had some of the best works an owner could ask for. A very solid pedigree doesn’t hurt her chances either.
Why she won’t place:
She’s very inexperienced (only run twice), and hasn’t faced very stellar competition. This is a BIG leap up for her, and many feel she won’t be able to handle it. Despite the fact that she set the track record at Sunland, her speed figures weren’t anything to write home about.

Show: Unlimited Budget (7:2) ridden by J. Castellano
Why she’ll show:
Undefeated and battle-tested, she’s the real deal. Let me make this clear, she could WIN. She’s raced at 1-1/8, and defeated Emollient in the process. Her style indicates she will be there in the end, and her works have indicated that too. Perhaps no one has put in more eye-catching works at Churchill than Unlimited Budget. Great post position doesn’t hurt either.
Why she’ll miss:
Her speed figures did regress a small bit in her last race, and she doesn’t have the flashiness and finishing touch of Julia or Lucky. It’s hard to find any faults with her as of yet. I just like Midnight Lucky a bit more, that’s all.

Hitting the board: Beholder (7:2) ridden by G. Gomez
I think Beholder is overmatched in this race. I know some people are ranting and raving like lunatics that he will win. Who knows, its horse racing…it’s always a possibility! I just don’t think he will. I think the pace is too much for him and he gets caught by Julia, Lucky and Budget after the final turn. I also like Rose to Gold as a longshot, but am worried she just may be too slow to keep up with the rest of these top Fillies, especially since she likes to be on or close to the lead.

I hope you guys enjoyed my first (of what I hope to be regular) ‘official’ selections and feel free to comment on who you like. Tomorrow I’ll post my Kentucky Derby selections.

Who will Win the 2013 Kentucky Derby?

2013-05-02T05:05:56Z

OK And Down The Stretch They Come followers. The draw has been completed and the morning line odds have been made (with a few quirky prices, if you ask me). Now the fun begins.

Print off the PP's, sharpen the pencils, pour your drink of choice, and let the handicapping begin!

Matt, JP, Swale and Siva have been hard at work providing the inside information, trends and angles to set the stage for some good discussion. There's a lot of new race fans adding new perspectives and, in my opinion, ADTSTC is the best forum for talking thoroughbred racing.

I'm relatively new to the sport, have been lucky to cash a few tickets, and am looking forward to a fun Derby weekend. While I might not offer the handicapping insight of the real players, I like to contribute with polls, links to free PP's and the such.

I'm providing the poll here with an ulterior motive - I'm going to take the top five selections for a Derby Super Hi-5 ticket.

For what it's worth, I've been hot on Normandy Invasion for the prep season, I've got him in some Exacta boxes in the futures pool, he's been working great at CD, and so that's my pick. Good luck.

OK And Down The Stretch They Come followers. The draw has been completed and the morning line odds have been made (with a few quirky prices, if you ask me). Now the fun begins.

Print off the PP's, sharpen the pencils, pour your drink of choice, and let the handicapping begin!

I'm providing the poll here with an ulterior motive - I'm going to take the top five selections for a Derby Super Hi-5 ticket.

For what it's worth, I've been hot on Normandy Invasion for the prep season, I've got him in some Exacta boxes in the futures pool, he's been working great at CD, and so that's my pick. Good luck.

Poll

Who will win the 2013 Kentucky Derby? (Opening M/L odds)

1 - Black Onyx - 50/1

3 votes

2 - Oxbow - 30/1

13 votes

3 - Revolutionary - 10/1

84 votes

4 - Golden Soul - 50/1

3 votes

5 - Normandy Invasion - 12/1

43 votes

6 - Mylute - 15/1

13 votes

7 - Giant Finish - 50/1

0 votes

8 - Goldencents - 5/1

37 votes

9 - Overanalyze - 15/1

22 votes

10 - Palace Malice - 20/1

10 votes

11 - Lines of Battle - 30/1

7 votes

12 - Itsmyluckyday - 15/1

41 votes

13 - Falling Sky - 50/1

3 votes

14 - Verrazano - 4/1

38 votes

15 - Charming Kitten - 20/1

3 votes

16 - Orb - 7/2

45 votes

17 - Will Take Charge - 20/1

8 votes

18 - Frac Daddy - 50/1

9 votes

19 - Java's War - 15/1

14 votes

20 - Vyjack - 15/1

10 votes

406 votes | Poll has closed

NBC Sports Group Presents 14.5 Hours Of Kentucky Derby Week Coverage

2013-04-29T19:29:55Z

Link: Press Release at NBC Sports Group:

NBC Sports Group will present 14.5 hours of Kentucky Derby coverage beginning Wednesday, May 1, at 4 p.m. ET on NBC Sports Network with Kentucky Derby Classics, and culminating with the 139th running of the Kentucky Derby on NBC, Saturday, May 4, beginning at 11 a.m. on NBC Sports Network and continuing at 4 p.m. ET on NBC.

COMENTATORS: NBC Sports Group coverage of the Kentucky Derby will feature co-hosts Bob Costas and Tom Hammond; analysts Randy Moss and Jerry Bailey; reporters/handicappers Mike Battaglia and Bob Neumeier; NBC Sports Network host Laffit Pincay, III; reporters Kenny Rice, Donna Brothers, pre-race reporter Jay Privman; and race caller Larry Collmus, who will call the Kentucky Oaks, Turf Classic and Kentucky Derby (NBC plans to take the call of track announcer Mark Johnson for the remaining races on Derby Day).

Michelle Beadle of Access Hollywood and NBC Sports Network, will provide features and interviews, and Coco Rocha will talk Kentucky Derby fashions and handle celebrity interviews throughout the week.

KENTUCKY DERBY LIVE PROGRAMMING

Wed., May 1 - 5 p.m. Kentucky Derby Draw NBCSN

Thurs., May 2 - 5 p.m. Kentucky Derby Access NBCSN

Fri., May 3 - 5 p.m. Exclusive Worldwide Kentucky Oaks Broadcast NBCSN

5:46 p.m. The 139th Running of The Kentucky Oaks Stakes (G1)

Sat., May 4 - 11 a.m. Exclusive Domestic Kentucky Derby Saturday Broadcast NBCSN

11:02 a.m. Race 2

11:33 a.m. Race 3

12:05 p.m. Race 4

12:39 p.m. Race 5

1:20 p.m. Race 6 The 19th Running of The Twin Spires Turf Sprint Stakes (G3)

2:10 p.m. Race 7 The 27th Running of The Distaff Stakes (G1)

3:00 p.m. Race 8 The 28th Running of The Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Stakes (G2)

3:50 p.m. Race 9 The 79th Running of The Churchill Downs Stakes (G2)

Sat., May 4 - 4 p.m. Exclusive Worldwide Kentucky Derby Broadcast NBC

4:47 p.m. Race 10 The 27th Running of The Turf Classic Stakes (G1)

6:28 p.m. Race 11 The 139th Running of The Kentucky Derby Stakes (G1)

Sat., May 4 - 7 p.m. Kentucky Derby Post-Race Show NBCSN

ADDITIONAL PROGRAMMING:
Wed., May 1 - 4 p.m. Kentucky Derby Classics – Mine That Bird NBCSN
Thurs., May 2 - 4 p.m. Kentucky Derby Classics – Animal Kingdom NBCSN
Fri., May 3 - 4 p.m. Kentucky Derby Classics – I’ll Have Another NBCSN

Link: Press Release at NBC Sports Group:

NBC Sports Group will present 14.5 hours of Kentucky Derby coverage beginning Wednesday, May 1, at 4 p.m. ET on NBC Sports Network with Kentucky Derby Classics, and culminating with the 139th running of the Kentucky Derby on NBC, Saturday, May 4, beginning at 11 a.m. on NBC Sports Network and continuing at 4 p.m. ET on NBC.

COMENTATORS: NBC Sports Group coverage of the Kentucky Derby will feature co-hosts Bob Costas and Tom Hammond; analysts Randy Moss and Jerry Bailey; reporters/handicappers Mike Battaglia and Bob Neumeier; NBC Sports Network host Laffit Pincay, III; reporters Kenny Rice, Donna Brothers, pre-race reporter Jay Privman; and race caller Larry Collmus, who will call the Kentucky Oaks, Turf Classic and Kentucky Derby (NBC plans to take the call of track announcer Mark Johnson for the remaining races on Derby Day).

Michelle Beadle of Access Hollywood and NBC Sports Network, will provide features and interviews, and Coco Rocha will talk Kentucky Derby fashions and handle celebrity interviews throughout the week.

KENTUCKY DERBY LIVE PROGRAMMING

Wed., May 1 - 5 p.m. Kentucky Derby Draw NBCSN

Thurs., May 2 - 5 p.m. Kentucky Derby Access NBCSN

Fri., May 3 - 5 p.m. Exclusive Worldwide Kentucky Oaks Broadcast NBCSN

5:46 p.m. The 139th Running of The Kentucky Oaks Stakes (G1)

Sat., May 4 - 11 a.m. Exclusive Domestic Kentucky Derby Saturday Broadcast NBCSN

11:02 a.m. Race 2

11:33 a.m. Race 3

12:05 p.m. Race 4

12:39 p.m. Race 5

1:20 p.m. Race 6 The 19th Running of The Twin Spires Turf Sprint Stakes (G3)

2:10 p.m. Race 7 The 27th Running of The Distaff Stakes (G1)

3:00 p.m. Race 8 The 28th Running of The Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Stakes (G2)

3:50 p.m. Race 9 The 79th Running of The Churchill Downs Stakes (G2)

Sat., May 4 - 4 p.m. Exclusive Worldwide Kentucky Derby Broadcast NBC

4:47 p.m. Race 10 The 27th Running of The Turf Classic Stakes (G1)

6:28 p.m. Race 11 The 139th Running of The Kentucky Derby Stakes (G1)

Sat., May 4 - 7 p.m. Kentucky Derby Post-Race Show NBCSN

ADDITIONAL PROGRAMMING:
Wed., May 1 - 4 p.m. Kentucky Derby Classics – Mine That Bird NBCSN
Thurs., May 2 - 4 p.m. Kentucky Derby Classics – Animal Kingdom NBCSN
Fri., May 3 - 4 p.m. Kentucky Derby Classics – I’ll Have Another NBCSN

Points System Rant

2013-04-18T19:40:30Z

After year one, it seems clear what the goals of the point system are:

1. Reward 3 year old success

2. Keep sprinters out

3. Keep fillies out.

4. Destroy Hawthorne

5. Promote Derby Trial

Goals 1 and 2 are fine. 3-5 are dumb. You really don't need a points system to do all this. Regardless, the cutoff is going to be 20 points or lower, which makes it all the more ridiculous. With 20 spots, any horse that could possibly have a hope in the Derby can make it (Except Dreaming of Julia). Was there ever a horse that didn't make the derby that should have made it? In the previous system, I doubt it.

In this system, it's much more possible. A horse who dominates their 2 year old campaign, maybe even wins the BC Juvenile, and maybe even wins a race at 3, but gets hurt, bad weather, etc... can get shutout, when a horse who finishes 3rd in the Spiral then 4th in the Blue Grass gets in.

There's all this talk about how great the system was, but really, at the end of the day, it kept the Illinois Derby winner out and Dreaming of Julia. Yay...

After year one, it seems clear what the goals of the point system are:

1. Reward 3 year old success

2. Keep sprinters out

3. Keep fillies out.

4. Destroy Hawthorne

5. Promote Derby Trial

There's all this talk about how great the system was, but really, at the end of the day, it kept the Illinois Derby winner out and Dreaming of Julia. Yay...

Expanded Roles Seen for Santa Anita, Del Mar

2013-04-14T19:36:54Z

With Fairplex Park announcing it is pulling out of expanding its racetrack, Santa Anita Park and Del Mar are likely to host the 2014 Southern California racing circuit should Hollywood Park shut down.

Santa Anita's major meet, which begins Dec. 26 and ordinarily runs to late April, would be extended through July 4. The calendar could then go dark for a period of 10 to 15 days before the annual Del Mar summer stand commences.

The northern San Diego County track would likely extend its meet an extra week during the summer. Fairplex would then hold its annual three-week meet in conjunction with the Los Angles County Fair.

More changes would be coming in the fall, when Hollywood Park usually hosts its autumn meet. As it has in recent years, Santa Anita would run from late September or early October through the first week in November. Del Mar would then add a fall meet for the balance of November.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/77531/expanded-roles-seen-for-santa-anita-del-mar

The northern San Diego County track would likely extend its meet an extra week during the summer. Fairplex would then hold its annual three-week meet in conjunction with the Los Angles County Fair.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/77531/expanded-roles-seen-for-santa-anita-del-mar

Rainbow Blues

2013-04-08T21:36:25Z

I'm not a big Pick-6 player. I'm really not a big player at all. If a big Saturday is going on, I'll spread $100 on a Pick-4 and some exactas, and enjoy the day.

But the Rainbow 6 mandatory payout is an exception so I made a ticket. $14.40. Gave me 2 in 2 races, 3 in two races, 4 in one race, and a single in the last race.

Well, at least it was the 3rd race I lost by a head and not the last race. And, that was the race I put 4 horses in too. Either way, I missed the Pick-6 by a head and I'm just real bummed. It would have probably paid out around $5,000, because my horse went off longer than the winner. For me, $5000 is a lot of money.

I tried to tell a couple of people and they didn't care. I guess I don't blame them. I'm just bummed. One more jump and my horse would have made it. Y'all probably don't care too much, but maybe you can share some of your stories and I'll feel better.

I'm going to Hot Springs for the first time this weekend, but I just don't feel like playing too much. Maybe by then I will.

I'm not a big Pick-6 player. I'm really not a big player at all. If a big Saturday is going on, I'll spread $100 on a Pick-4 and some exactas, and enjoy the day.

But the Rainbow 6 mandatory payout is an exception so I made a ticket. $14.40. Gave me 2 in 2 races, 3 in two races, 4 in one race, and a single in the last race.

I'm going to Hot Springs for the first time this weekend, but I just don't feel like playing too much. Maybe by then I will.

Horse Racing Memories from a 20-something Kentuckian, or Yay Keeneland (and Turfway)!

2013-04-04T01:47:45Z

This Friday, April 5th, 2013, Keeneland's Spring Meet opens. Even though I'm a native of Florence, Kentucky, where Turfway Park is, when I think of horse racing, I think Keeneland and Churchill Downs before I think of anywhere else. That doesn't mean that Turfway Park should be dismissed. There's more history to the track than one would think.

Before I started going to the track with my dad, and even before my birth, Turfway has had famous winners race there in the 1980s and early 1990s. Broad Brush won the Jim Beam [now the Spiral, its original namesake] and later ran 3rd in the Derby and Preakness. Alysheba ran there as a 2 year old. Summer Squall won the 1990 Preakness. Hansel won the 1991 Preakness and Belmont Stakes. Lil E. Tee became the first horse to win the Jim Beam and Kentucky Derby in 1992. [Animal Kingdom was the second in 2011 when it was the Spiral once more.] Prairie Bayou won the 1993 Preakness. Which meant that 4 years of racing saw Jim Beam Stakes winners win 5 of the 12 Triple Crown Races in that span.

Four horses that have won major races at Turfway Park won the Dubai World Cup, the world's richest horse race. Silver Charm, Captain Steve, and Roses in May won the Kentucky Cup Classic and the Dubai World Cup. Animal Kingdom won the Spiral Stakes and the Dubai World Cup. In 2000, Point Given won the Kentucky Cup Juvenile before becoming a Champion 3 year old that was a Dual Classic winner and the Horse of the Year in 2001. Tiznow probably would have been more likely to win 2001's Horse of the Year if he did what he did in 2001 in 2013, but that doesn't take away from Point Given, my generation's Damascus with a shorter racing career.

The first time I remember going to a racetrack with my dad and grandpa was the 1994 Kentucky Cup. I saw Tabasco Cat win the inaugural Kentucky Cup Classic. The following year, I went to my first of five ['95, '98-'00, '11] Derbies to see Thunder Gulch win the Roses. He was also at the Kentucky Cup Classic for its 2nd running. Silver Charm also ran there in 1998 after his successes in the 1997 Kentucky Derby, 1997 Preakness, and 1998 Dubai World Cup and won the '98 Kentucky Cup Classic in a famous dead heat photo. The jockey statue they painted the winning colors' on for that race is still in the 1st Floor lobby today with half the Lewis' famous gold and green striped silks and the other half the Stronach Stables silks for the other dead heater, Wild Rush.

While many of my early memories of the track were formed at Turfway, the allure of Keeneland seamlessly molds the traditions and buildings of the past with the technologies of the 21st century. The ivy on the walls of the main building, the Trakus high-definition TVs, the polytrack and the apron--all of it takes my breath away. In my eyes, it's the premier meet in the country--both Spring and Fall alike.

Living in a horse-racing rich state like Kentucky can spoil you as a racing fan. Churchill's always 90 minutes away from Florence. When I was in undergrad at the University of Louisville, it was a 5 minute drive up 4th Street to Central Avenue. Churchill opens 1 week before the Derby and closes around the 4th of July. Then it opens again for the end of October and November. Turfway runs December-March and September. If you miss one day at either track, there's plenty of other opportunities to check it out during a live meet.

Keeneland is an hour or so away from either ~~Lexington~~ Florence or Louisville. It has more of the allure as a seasonal or boutique meet because it's only open in April and October. The seasons are limited, but less is more with Keeneland's product. While missing a weekday outside of Derby or Breeders' Cup week is quite normal for Turfway or Churchill, you could go to Keeneland on a Wednesday and not miss a beat compared to most tracks' weekends. While October offers the aspirations of the championship contenders for all racing divisions and offers great racing in its own right at Keeneland, April at Keeneland is the time of the most promise for me. You see the first regular 2 year old races at 4 1/2 furlongs, the Oaks contenders, the Derby contenders, and every other division in between.

Being more or less a lifer at the track through my father, who has been going since the early 1970s, most of my peers didn't catch the racing bug until they were ready to graduate high school or more likely, in college. Since then, it has taken an even greater hold of my life. Being the lifer, people around my age usually ask me for betting advice, especially around Triple Crown or Keeneland seasons. I usually don't explicitly say "bet this horse," but I will advise them what would fit their opinions based on what I know.

Friday is College Day and Opening Day at Keeneland. I shall be there for yet another time. I've lost count of the times I've visited, I've been there so much in the past 15-20 years. I do have vague memories of when there used to not be an announcer on track and several with Kurt Becker. I have memories of the dirt track and the polytrack eras. Every single trip involves different positive memories that change from year to year, but the allure of Keeneland never seems to lose its charm. Here's to some more good memories in the Spring of 2013.

Kentucky Oaks/Derby Schedules

2013-04-02T20:47:26Z

Friday, May 3, 2013:

1st Race	10:30 AM $50k 7F Maiden F&M Allowance
2nd Race	11:00 AM $50k 1 1/16M Maiden F&M Allowance 
3rd Race	11:30 AM $52k 7F F&M Allowance/Claiming
4th Race	12:05 PM $52k 1M F&M Allowance/Claiming
5th Race	12:43 PM $54k 1 1/16M F&M Allowance/Claiming
6th Race	1:26 PM $150k Edgewood Stakes 1 1/16M (T)
7th Race	2:08 PM $150k Eight Belles Stakes 7F
8th Race	3:02 PM $300k La Troienne Stakes 1 1/16M
9th Race	3:52 PM $300k Alysheba Stakes 1 1/16M
10th Race	4:44 PM $200k American Turf Stakes 1 1/16M (T)
11th Race	5:47 PM $1M Kentucky Oaks Stakes 1 1/8M
12th Race	6:21 PM $57k 1M (T) F&M Allowance/Claiming

Saturday, May 4, 2013:

1st Race	10:30 AM $50k 7F Maiden Allowance
2nd Race	11:03 AM $50k 1 1/16M Maiden Allowance 
3rd Race	11:33 AM $52k 7F Allowance/Claiming
4th Race	12:06 PM $52k 1 1/16M Allowance/Claiming
5th Race	12:40 PM $54k 1M Allowance/Claiming
6th Race	1:21 PM $125k Twin Spires Turf Sprint Stakes 5F (T)
7th Race	2:12 PM $300k Distaff Stakes 7F
8th Race	3:02 PM $250k Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Stakes 1M (T)
9th Race	3:51 PM $400k Churchill Downs Stakes 7F
10th Race	4:47 PM $500k Turf Classic Stakes 1 1/8M (T)
11th Race	6:31 PM $2M Kentucky Derby Stakes 1 1/4M
12th Race	7:21 PM $28k 1M or 6F Starter Allowance
13th Race	7:53 PM $57k 1 1/16M (T) Allowance/Claiming

Friday, May 3, 2013:

1st Race	10:30 AM $50k 7F Maiden F&M Allowance
2nd Race	11:00 AM $50k 1 1/16M Maiden F&M Allowance 
3rd Race	11:30 AM $52k 7F F&M Allowance/Claiming
4th Race	12:05 PM $52k 1M F&M Allowance/Claiming
5th Race	12:43 PM $54k 1 1/16M F&M Allowance/Claiming
6th Race	1:26 PM $150k Edgewood Stakes 1 1/16M (T)
7th Race	2:08 PM $150k Eight Belles Stakes 7F
8th Race	3:02 PM $300k La Troienne Stakes 1 1/16M
9th Race	3:52 PM $300k Alysheba Stakes 1 1/16M
10th Race	4:44 PM $200k American Turf Stakes 1 1/16M (T)
11th Race	5:47 PM $1M Kentucky Oaks Stakes 1 1/8M
12th Race	6:21 PM $57k 1M (T) F&M Allowance/Claiming

Saturday, May 4, 2013:

1st Race	10:30 AM $50k 7F Maiden Allowance
2nd Race	11:03 AM $50k 1 1/16M Maiden Allowance 
3rd Race	11:33 AM $52k 7F Allowance/Claiming
4th Race	12:06 PM $52k 1 1/16M Allowance/Claiming
5th Race	12:40 PM $54k 1M Allowance/Claiming
6th Race	1:21 PM $125k Twin Spires Turf Sprint Stakes 5F (T)
7th Race	2:12 PM $300k Distaff Stakes 7F
8th Race	3:02 PM $250k Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Stakes 1M (T)
9th Race	3:51 PM $400k Churchill Downs Stakes 7F
10th Race	4:47 PM $500k Turf Classic Stakes 1 1/8M (T)
11th Race	6:31 PM $2M Kentucky Derby Stakes 1 1/4M
12th Race	7:21 PM $28k 1M or 6F Starter Allowance
13th Race	7:53 PM $57k 1 1/16M (T) Allowance/Claiming

Retro Diary: Triple Crown Aspirations and Failures of the Past. Can someone end the post-Affirmed Drought?

2013-04-01T03:48:10Z

In Blazing Saddles, there's a law book that Hedley Lamaar and Taggart look at for a legal precedent as part of the plot. "Haley vs. United States, Haley 7, United States 0; it CAN be done!" I wrote this note last year during the high expectation/bitter disappointment Triple Crown Campaign of I'll Have Another. Hopefully, I can update it this year with more optimism and better endings.

The Triple Crown not being won since 1978 is almost as ridiculous as that quote from that movie that titles this note, it's failed so many times. In my lifetime (the 90s/00s bids, as I was a fetus at the time of Sunday Silence's run), Haley represents the failed bids prior to I'll Have Another. US represents the successes since 11/26/1989. Since 1978 (1979's bid being the first since then), 11 have tried, 11 have came up short. Now we find out if I'll Have Another shall be #12 to win all three races or #12 to come up short. On June 10, 1978, Affirmed beat Alydar by a head to become the 11th Triple Crown winner and the 3rd Triple Crown winner in a 6-year span. Nine days later, Garfield was published in comic strips for the first time. I jokingly refer to the drought as the Curse of Garfield. 1978 is also the year of my sister's birth. She hasn't seen one, either. Hopefully, we see one on June 9th. I will now recap the failed bids since then, followed by what I think about I'll Have Another's bid.

The failed bids since 1978 [note--all of these failed bidders won 3-year-old champion in their years]:

Spectacular Bid (1979)--He was 2 year old champion in 1978, and later an older horse/Horse of the Year champion in 1980. His trainer, Bud Delp, was so confident in him winning the Derby, he was reported as telling racegoers to "Go Bet" on his horse. They'd have won if they listened, as 'Bid' won the Derby and later the Preakness. He stepped on a safety pin the morning of the [Belmont] race, putting his soundness to the test. He ran the race all right in that he was safe throughout the race. But he lost when his jockey was stupidly chasing speed horses, one of them being Golden Act, who ran 2nd. Coastal won the race, with Bid running 3rd. After the race, the jockey was switched to Hall of Famer Bill Shoemaker. He never lost a race as a 4-year-old. Probably the best horse to not win the Crown the past 40 years. 0/1 since 1978.

Pleasant Colony (1981)--He won the first two legs from off the pace. On Belmont Day, he broke badly and had to try and win from dead last. He beat everyone...but 2 horses. Summing and Highland Blade beat him that day, though he was well clear of the 4th place horse. 3rd is good for a show bet, but not for the Triple Crown. A good horse, no doubt, but not a great one. 0/2 since 1978.

Alysheba (1987)--Entering the Derby, he only officially won his maiden race, but had crossed the line first more than that before being disqualified. He won the first two legs convincingly, making people think he'd avenge his dad--Alydar--in winning the Crown that Alydar lost to Affirmed. He lost a 3-way photo for 2nd that day, costing him a $1 million bonus for best overall performance in the Triple Crown. Bet Twice beat him soundly by 14 lengths. Later on, Alysheba would win 1988 Horse of the Year as a 4-year-old. The best horse of the past 25 years didn't do it, either. 0/3 since 1978.

Sunday Silence (1989)--This was the year I was born, though I was still in the womb at the running of these races. His rivalry with Easy Goer was akin to Affirmed/Alydar. Only difference being, Easy Goer won the Belmont by 8 lengths. Not only that, he [Easy Goer] ran the fastest "not Secretariat" Belmont ever. But Sunday Silence won the Breeders' Cup (BC') Classic that year, winning Horse of the Year. And was a legend in breeding in Japan. Even bred a Japanese Triple Crown winner that accomplished the feat in Japan unbeaten in 2005 (Deep Impact). But he had the misfortune of being as old as Easy Goer. 0/4 since 1978.

Silver Charm (1997)--The first Triple Crown bid of my lifetime. He won the first two in gutsy fashion. Had a good guy connection line. Owners were the Lewises, trainer was Bob Baffert--he just lost the '96 Derby by a nose, and Gary Stevens won 2 Derbies and a Belmont before. In 1998, he almost became the 3rd Dual Classic winner to win the BC' Classic. Watched at home with family that day. He lost to Touch Gold, a horse that just lost the Preakness (4th, beaten less than 2 lengths) after an awful trip. I joked that Silver Charm got too busy combing his mane for the winner's photo to win the race, but I know better that he was lucky to have the chance at the bid looking at Touch Gold's Preakness in retrospect. 0/5 since 1978.

Real Quiet (1998)--The unlikeliest of bidders. He was the #2 in the Baffert barn that year to Indian Charlie. Jockey was Kent Desormeaux, his 1st of 3 Derbies (and 1st of 2 Triple Crown tries). My late uncle picked him to win that year. We all wanted him to do it in 1998; I watched the Belmont at home and saw him at the Derby in person. He had a clear lead at the top of the stretch in the Belmont. Then Victory Gallop ran him down to win a "$5 Million photo" by a nose. Crushing. I cried for about 20 minutes after that. Really hated Victory Gallop for that, especially since he beat Favorite Trick, the winter-book Derby favorite that year in his Derby prep. Not VG's fault; Real Quiet was a horse that sold for under $20K in the auction ring. That he was less than a foot from being a Triple Crown winner shows that he wins the 'bang for the buck' award of the failed bidders. 0/6 since 1978.

Charismatic (1999)--My dad had him in the Derby (we were at that Derby) and Preakness. Same owners as Silver Charm, trained by D. Wayne Lukas--a legend, ridden by Chris Antley who was the Josh Hamilton of jockeys. Immense talent and past demons about to be redeemed by Charismatic. My dad and I watched at River Downs in Cincinnati. Then he fell short in the Belmont, running 3rd to Lemon Drop Kid (eventual 2000 Older Horse Champ) and Vision and Verse. Also got hurt in the Belmont, but lived to tell the tale and become a stallion and the 1999 Horse of the Year. This hurt worse than Real Quiet in many ways, as at least Real Quiet wasn't injured in the race. 0/7 since 1978.

War Emblem (2002)--Impressive winner of the first two legs that used his speed to win them both (gate-to-wire Derby, sat 2nd before overtaking in Preakness). Entered the Belmont as live as any of them with raw speed and talent; watched it at home. But he lost the race at the start, stumbling before rushing up to fade to 8th place. A bomb, Sarava, won the race at 70-1 odds. Medaglia d'Oro, a game horse that was an underachiever at that point, later won millions of dollars and sired (was the daddy of) Rachel Alexandra. Medaglia d'Oro was 2nd that year. This one hurt the least, as War Emblem got through the race healthy, even if soundly beaten. He also didn't get my hopes up as much as the other 3 did. 0/8 since 1978.

Funny Cide (2003)--He was a plucky underdog that won the first two jewels of the Crown. Also a gelding, meaning that he wouldn't retire immediately because of the money involved in breeding. Won by a ton in the Preakness, but he left it out on the track before the Belmont. Watched at home. That, and the 57 second workout at 5/8 of a mile the week of the race, sapped his energy. Two fresh horses, Empire Maker (Derby favorite) and Ten Most Wanted (Travers winner), beat him. My dad kept saying "he's [Funny Cide] going to lose" and he was right. I didn't react well to that, and I later saw "Bruce Almighty" at the theater that day. Showed that no matter the intention, can't get what you want from prayer all the time, and sometimes it's for the best, even if it hurts short-run. 0/9 since 1978.

Smarty Jones (2004)--The horse that towered over the rest of his fellow 3-year-olds. Ran through the races unbeaten headed to the Belmont Stakes. Won the Preakness by about 10 lengths. Which is like winning Game 6 of a 7 game series by 30 points. I thought he'd do it that year. Watched the race at Hoosier Park just north of Indianapolis that year. Had a lead in the stretch, but got ran down by Birdstone. Birdstone later won the Travers and he was a 2-year-old that failed to click at 3 before that day. Smarty Jones was subjected to a faster middle half-mile in the Belmont than Secretariat was (:48 for Secretariat; :46.79 for Smarty Jones). That eventually did him in that day. Crushed me to no end; I later threw up that night from eating too much and being emotionally down from the loss. 0/10 since 1978.

Big Brown (2008)--The horse that had no rival but himself going into the Belmont Stakes. He was a perfect 5/5 in his career entering the race. His main rival, Casino Drive, scratched the week of the race. It was an inside speed track and Big Brown had the #1 post. Seemed too good to be true. Well, it was. He ran last, not finishing the race that day. His owner and trainer were humbled for exaltation that day. A random 38-1 bomb, Da' Tara, won that day and Da' Tara never won another race. Big Brown won his 2 starts post-Derby, but retired too soon to foot problems, the same foot problems that plagued him in the Belmont. Watched it at Keeneland in disbelief at such an epic fail attempt. But at least he erased the doubt before the final 1/4 mile, unlike 1997-99 and 2004 did. 0/11 since 1978.

I'll Have Another (2012) and his career reflection since he is now retired: Now we get to 2012. The year I graduated college with a Bachelor's in Middle/Secondary Education-Social Studies. Big Brown went for it after I graduated high school. Smarty Jones went for it after I was promoted/graduated from 8th grade. Point Given, with a better effort in the 2001 Derby, might have won all 3 after I was promoted/graduated from 5th grade. These events seem to happen after graduations. Which means my masters' degree (and beyond, if I go beyond) will probably involve one lol. Anyway, now to get to I'll Have Another.

Here is an extended preview of what his chances to win the Triple Crown would have been, if healthy. (and with it, the Belmont [Stakes] on June 9th):

I'll Have Another (4/4 this year, 7-5-1-0 in his career)

Trained by Doug O'Neill, Jockey Mario Gutierrez, Won Preakness Stakes (5/19) and Kentucky Derby (5/5).

The whole controversy with the Doug O'Neill 45-day suspension and Paul Reddam--his owner--gaining a reputation as a loan shark for running CashCall, a high-risk loan company, didn't help, media-wise. He gave us a good ride all year, going 4/4 on the year. His Kentucky Derby and Preakness wins were sublime. Joins a group of three (Burgoo King, Bold Venture, and now I'll Have Another) who got hurt and withdrew from the Belmont Stakes. It was the right decision, but ouch for the dashed hopes...again. Not sure what God wants out of a Triple Crown winner. Were this Doctor Who, I'd get the TARDIS ready to see Secretariat's run just to know what it's like to see someone do it. Sure, I've seen a Canadian (Wando-2003) and Japanese (Deep Impact-2005) Triple Crown winner, and a horse called Camelot might do it in England this year to end a drought that's been around since my dad graduated high school in 1970. But it's not the same.

His mother had injury problems that made her retire early; her son suffered the same ending. It's like how Bulls fans felt after Derrick Rose went down with an ACL injury in the 2012 NBA Playoffs. It looked like they might end the post-Jordan drought, compared to I'll Have Another ending the Triple Crown drought. But both fell short to injury; at least Rose has another chance (or more). And there could be a Triple Crown winner sometime before I die; I'm only 22, after all. My dad was about my age for Secretariat's run. Who knows? But it doesn't end the world that it happened this way. Better that than a catastrophic injury on the scale of Charismatic, Barbaro, or Eight Belles. Though not a happy conclusion, better than one that feels like the dementor's kiss. It felt empty this afternoon upon finding out, but it was redeemed by a fine day at the Cengage company picnic with friends and going with my parents and my best friend to Keeneland the following day. Life goes on. To quote the late, great Andres Escobar from a guest column he wrote in 1994 after the 'own goal' game in the '94 World Cup, "Life doesn't end here." No worries; on to fight another day.

The failed bids since 1978 [note--all of these failed bidders won 3-year-old champion in their years]:

Here is an extended preview of what his chances to win the Triple Crown would have been, if healthy. (and with it, the Belmont [Stakes] on June 9th):

I'll Have Another (4/4 this year, 7-5-1-0 in his career)

Trained by Doug O'Neill, Jockey Mario Gutierrez, Won Preakness Stakes (5/19) and Kentucky Derby (5/5).

Race Order Announced For DWC Night

2013-03-20T01:21:54Z

R1: 4:30pm (8:30am ET) Dubai Kahayla Classic Stakes (G1) Arabians

R2: 5:10pm (9:10am ET) Godolphin Mile Stakes (G2)

R3: 5:45pm (9:45am ET) Dubai Racing Club Gold Cup Turf Marathon Stakes (G3)

R4: 6:25pm (10:25am ET) UAE Derby Stakes (G2)

R5: 7:00pm (11:00am ET) Al Quoz Turf Sprint Stakes (G1)

R6: 7:35pm (11:35am ET) Dubai Golden Shaheen Stakes (G1)

R7: 8:50pm (12:50pm ET) Dubai Duty Free Stakes (G1)

R8: 9:20pm (1:20pm ET) Dubai Sheema Classic Stakes (G1)

R9: 10:05pm (2:05pm ET) Dubai World Cup Stakes (G1)

Only the off times for the Kahayla Classic Stakes and Dubai World Cup Stakes are set in stone. The rest may fluctuate pending events on the racecourse that night.

R1: 4:30pm (8:30am ET) Dubai Kahayla Classic Stakes (G1) Arabians

R2: 5:10pm (9:10am ET) Godolphin Mile Stakes (G2)

R3: 5:45pm (9:45am ET) Dubai Racing Club Gold Cup Turf Marathon Stakes (G3)

R4: 6:25pm (10:25am ET) UAE Derby Stakes (G2)

R5: 7:00pm (11:00am ET) Al Quoz Turf Sprint Stakes (G1)

R6: 7:35pm (11:35am ET) Dubai Golden Shaheen Stakes (G1)

R7: 8:50pm (12:50pm ET) Dubai Duty Free Stakes (G1)

R8: 9:20pm (1:20pm ET) Dubai Sheema Classic Stakes (G1)

R9: 10:05pm (2:05pm ET) Dubai World Cup Stakes (G1)

Only the off times for the Kahayla Classic Stakes and Dubai World Cup Stakes are set in stone. The rest may fluctuate pending events on the racecourse that night.

Turf Classic Draws 62 Early Nominations

2013-03-06T21:41:06Z

For $100 a pop, Wise Dan, Animal Kingdom, Little Mike and Point of Entry are among 62 early nominations for the $500,000 Turf Classic Stakes. Late nominations (for $1k a piece) are due April 10, the same day as the rest of the Derby/Oaks undercard stakes nominations are due.

The Turf Classic Stakes is limited to 14 starters, with up to 6 also eligibles and will air on NBC as apart of its Kentucky Derby broadcast, with an expected post time of 4:50pm ET.

Click Here To View Nominations

The Turf Classic Stakes is limited to 14 starters, with up to 6 also eligibles and will air on NBC as apart of its Kentucky Derby broadcast, with an expected post time of 4:50pm ET.

Click Here To View Nominations

Grammys

2013-02-11T03:49:08Z

To make a long story short. I was making fun of the Grammys and how many different awards there are (Over 80). So while I was looking at seeing how many awards there are, I happened to glance at award 77.

Best Classical Vocal Solo:

Debussy: Clair De Lune - Natalie Dessay - Virgin Classics

Debussy - Winner of 2010 Arlington Million

Eclair De Lune - Winner of 2010 Arlington Beverly D

Any one else think that's really weird?

Best Classical Vocal Solo:

Debussy: Clair De Lune - Natalie Dessay - Virgin Classics

Debussy - Winner of 2010 Arlington Million

Eclair De Lune - Winner of 2010 Arlington Beverly D

Any one else think that's really weird?

Kentucky Derby Futures

2013-02-06T15:15:40Z

Well, it's near time for the ultimate crapshoot - The Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 1. I'm sure for serious handicappers this is like playing a game of pin the tail on the donkey, but for a casual daydreamer like myself there is a level of excitement holding a $2 exacta box with long odds.

I like Chad Brown's horse, Normandy Invasion. He looks like he wants to go the distance. Actually, he reminds me a bit of Nehro and may do better in the later Triple Crown races, but I sure like his spirit.

In an earlier post, pgunpgun57 said he'd be keeping an eye on Revolutionary for the Derby and that horse is getting a lot of chatter as a possible at long odds. I guess I'm looking for a fringe horse; one the talking heads haven't played up. Proud Strike and Tiz the Truth might fit that mold. Any thoughts on a longshot worth watching?

Downtime/ADW Blackout Poll

2013-01-22T23:16:23Z

Since ADW is currently illegal in the great state of Illinois, I've found myself with some horse racing downtime. It's a bit tough to both follow horse racing news and not participate, so I've come up with a few alternatives. I'd be curious to see what others would do in this situation. These are the alternatives and pros/cons I've come up with:

OTB:
Pro: I get to play.
Con: Less convenient, e.g., requires some travel, fewer resources at my fingertips (to the extent I actually use them advantageously), etc. Concerned that the scene-change could affect my already shoddy performance. Strong preference for keeping my vocal post-race regrets and self-loathing at home.

Fake it (i.e., review PPs and see how I would've done):
Pro: Get to practice.
Con: Gotta pay for PPs without hope of recouping the cost. And this would undoubtedly be my handicapping golden age and I would never again do as well as I did while I was just pretending (this is an absolute lock).

Read a book about horse racing:
Pro: Up the knowledge base.
Con: Too easy to not follow through on the pledge; will probably just increase the urge to go to an OTB to test new-found, possibly harebrained, angles.

Stay away until it's back online:
Pro: Will reinforce valuable life-long lessons of humility and restraint.
Con: It stinks.

Other?

Stay away until it's back online:
Pro: Will reinforce valuable life-long lessons of humility and restraint.
Con: It stinks.

Other?

Poll

If you use ADW and ADW access were taken away for a period of time, what would you do?

OTB

2 votes

Fake It

1 votes

Read a Horse Racing Book

1 votes

Stay Away

2 votes

Other

1 votes

7 votes | Poll has closed

Who will win the Smarty Jones Stakes?

2013-01-20T20:23:46Z

January 21's Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park is the next race in the new Kentucky Derby qualifying system. It is Oaklawn Park's first in a series of 3-year-old races leading toward the April 13 Arkansas Derby (gr. I) and the Triple Crown races beyond, the one-mile Smarty Jones is worth points of 10-4-2-1 to the top four finishers on the road to the Kentucky Derby Post-time will be approximately 5:38 p.m. (ET). I'm not sure why the race isn't getting much press because there's a few horses with TC pedigree and the potential to make some noise later in the season. I'm going with the 6, Officer Alex, because he's got good speed figures, but he might be outclassed here. See if you can pick the winner! 1- Stormy Holiday 15/1 2- Always in a Tiz 9/2 3- Avare 2/1 4- Texas Bling 10/1 5- Best of Birdstone 20/1 6- Officer Alex 6/1 7- King Henny 6/1 8- Brown Almighty 4/1

Poll

Who will win the 2013 Smarty Jones Stakes?

1- Stormy Holiday 15/1

0 votes

2- Always in a Tiz 9/2

1 votes

3- Avare 2/1

0 votes

4- Texas Bling 10/1

0 votes

5- Best of Birdstone 20/1

0 votes

6- Officer Alex 6/1

2 votes

7- King Henny 6/1

0 votes

8- Brown Almighty 4/1

0 votes

3 votes | Poll has closed