The Breeders' Cup picture is beginning to clear up given the rush of graded stakes races taking place all over the country.  Last weekend it was turf racing at Arlington Park while this weekend we have races in the Classic, Ladies' Classic, Mile, Sprint, and Filly & Mare Sprint divisions taking center stage.

Below is the schedule for the weekend along with some thoughts on several of the races taking place this weekend.

-Following the tragic death of Tuscan Evening (IRE) after a workout over the Del Mar turf course, the Filly and Mare Turf division was left with a gaping hole at the top of the board.  Éclair de Lune (GER), runner-up to Tuscan Evening at Arlington over a month ago, took one step to fill that hole when she won last Saturday's Beverly D. Which every filly wins the Ballston Spa will take another step to fill that gap.

There appears to be a decent amount of speed in the Ballston Spa, as well as a solid selection of closers looking to run it down in the lane.  While this field doesn't contain any standouts it does feature a collection of very evenly matched fillies and mares. 

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Because of its relatively remote location the racing at Emerald Downs is pretty self-contained from year-to-year, meaning that in many races the same horses run against each other on multiple occasions, especially in stakes races.  In some ways that makes handicapping easier in that there is a known quality about the contenders and their strengths relative to one another.  On the other hand, it can be difficult to come to a clear opinion on a race when much of the field has spent time beating up on each other in race after race. 

This year's Longacres Mile presents this time-honored Emerald Downs tradition of a stakes race filled with horses that have taken turns beating up on one another over the past two years.  Below is a breakdown of the major stakes races at Emerald over the past year and how entries in the Mile have fared in those events.  I've included a few races from Hastings Park in B.C. since the field has a bit of bleed over from the two tracks:

• Mt. Rainier Handicap (1 1/8 miles, 8/1/2010): Noosa Beach goes wire-to-wire for the win over Senor Rojo (2^nd), Gallon (4^th), Wasserman (5^th), and Assessment 6^th).
• Randall Plate Handicap @ Hastings (1 1/16 miles, 7/18/2010): Burj Dubai and Senor Rojo finish 2^nd and 4^th respectively.
• Governor's Handicap (6½ furlongs, 7/11/10): Assessment defeats Noosa Beach (2^nd), Gallon (3^rd), Davos (4^th), Wasserman (5^th), and Winning Machine (7^th).
• Budweiser Handicap (1 1/16 furlongs, 6/6/2010): Almost Time defeats Teide (2^nd) and Senor Rojo (3^rd).
• Seattle Handicap (6 furlongs, 5/16/2010): Noosa Beach defeats Winning Machine (2^nd), Assessment (5^th), Gallon (6^th), and Wasserman (8^th).
• Allowance (5 ½ furlongs, 4/18/2010): Noosa Beach defeats Winning Machine (2^nd) and Wasserman (5^th).
• G3-B.C. Derby @ Hastings (1 1/8 miles, 9/27/2009): Winning Machine defeats Jersey Town (2^nd), Noosa Beach (4^th) and Senor Rojo (4^th).
• G3-Longacres Mile (1 mile, 8/16/2009): Assessment defeats Teide (3^rd), Wasseman (4^th) and Gallon (8^th)

There is only one horse in the field that hasn't run a race against any of his rivals in the last year and that is the morning line favorite, Gallant Son. 

Here's a look at each horse in this year's Longacres Mile:

-The first of two entries trained by Frank Lucarelli, 1-Winning Machine has had a bit of a tough time in 2010 after winning the Grade 3 B.C. Derby at Hastings and the Emerald Derby in September of 2009.  Since those back to back Derby wins he's 4-0-2-0 including a pair of weak performances in the Budweiser and Governors Handicap in his last two starts.  He was right with Noosa Beach in April and May (and he was third to Gallant Son and Noosa Beach in the 2008 Gottstein Futurity) but he current form suggests he's in for a tough go.

-Normally based in B.C. at Hastings Park, 2-Senor Rojo made his first start at Emerald Downs in the Mt. Rainier Handicap on August 1^st.  He finished a second to Noosa Beach in that race but it was a well-beaten second (4 ½ lengths back).  The Mt. Rainier represented one of his all-time best performances but he'll have to improve on that in order to have a realistic shot to beat Noosa Beach and Gallant Son in this spot.

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ARCADIA, CA - NOVEMBER 04: Gio Ponti in a morning workout in preparation for the Breeder's Cup 2009 at the Santa Anita Race Track on November 4, 2009 in Arcadia, California. Gio Ponti will attempt to win his second consecutive Arlington Million on Saturday August 21, 2010 at Arlington Park. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

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On Saturday, Gio Ponti will attempt to become the first back-to-back winner of the Grade 1 Arlington Million and the second two time winner.  John Henry won the inaugural Arlington Million in 1981 (the first million dollar horse race in the world) and won the race again in 1984.  Powerscourt (GB) crossed the wire first in 2004 but was taken down following a stewards inquiry and placed fourth behind ultimate winner Kicken Kris.  Powerscourt got his revenge in 2005 when Kieren Fallon (replacing 04 jockey Jamie Spencer) rode him to victory over 2004 Eclipse winner Kitten's Joy.

At first glance, this year's Arlington Million appears to be a fantastic opportunity for Gio Ponti to repeat.  In fact, one could make the argument that his biggest threat is not even in this race but is instead in running in the Secretariat Stakes, Paddy O'Prado.  Regardless, I'm in complete agreement with The Daily Racing Form's Mike Watchmaker in thinking that Gio Ponti is a dead-on "bet against" in this Saturday's Million and there are two reasons I have for straying from the favorite.  The first reason is similar to Watchmaker's in that I am not a fan of his last race, the Grade 1 Man o'War at Belmont.  Take a look at some of the more notable horses from the Man o'War:

• Runner-up Mission Approved, the horse that Gio Ponti was all out to defeat in the Man o'War, has won one race in the last two years - a $40k claimer at Delaware. 
• Expansion, third in the Man o'War, was a horse that I really thought was coming into his own, enough so that I had him as my top selection in last weekend's Sword Dancer at Saratoga, but his performance in that race was tepid, at best.  Despite how well Expansion has been running, he only has a Grade 2 win in a late-November race at Aqueduct on his resume. 
• Bearpath came back to run second in the Sword Dancer but holds one graded stake win in his career - the Grade 3 Pan American at Gulfstream in late March of 2010.
• Sixth and seventh place finishers Interpatation and Grand Couturier (GB) came back to run in the Sword Dancer where both failed to challenge repeat winner, Telling.

I just don't see the depth in that field that I'd want to see in a Grade 1 race, which leads me to my second reason for fleeing from Gio Ponti in the Million: his odds.  Gio Ponti, given his name and past accomplishments, will get pounded at the windows on Million day and probably endings up somewhere around Even money come post time.  Those are odds I just can't take on a colt that hasn't been at the top of his game at any point in 2010.  If you put Gio Ponti at 5/2 or 3/1 in the Million he becomes a much more enticing prospect, but 7/5 (likely as high as he'll be) or Even for a favorite that is coming out of a race that appears to be a Grade 1 in name only is not something I can back.  

Given the above factors I'm going to look to one of the European shippers, Shadwell Stable's 9-Tazeez (6/1), as my top selection in the Million.  This amounts to a pure class play on my part as I'm banking on the premise that losing to decent Group 1, 2 and 3 horses in Europe is better than beating a so-so Grade 1 field in the North America.  If I'm wrong, so be it, but at least I'll be chasing after a bit more value.

Here's a look at what's happened over the last three races for Tazeez:

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Three good things: The Form, a winning ticket, and a beer. (Photo: MattG)

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The draw for the 75th running of the Longacres Mile took place this morning at Emerald Downs.  A full field of twelve have drawn into the race with 2008 Emerald Downs champion two-year old, Gallant Son, the 5/2 morning line favorite.

I'll have more on this race once the past performances are relseased.

Grade 3 Longacres Mile
Emerald Downs
One mile
Three years old and up
Purse: $250,000

A bit of a lighter stakes calendar this weekend with only one Grade 1 affair, the Sword Dancer, on the docket.  We get a bit more of a glimpse at the juvenile divisions as Monmouth will run a juvenile turf race in the Continental Mile on Saturday, while Saratoga will offer a pair of juvenile races, the Saratoga Special and the Adirondack.

-Today's Continental Mile is an opportunity to take a look at some of juvenile on the lawn, many trying the surface for the first time.

7-Powhatan Country (3/1) makes sense in this race on a lot of level, the most significant of which is his maiden breaking score on the lawn at Saratoga on July 29^th.  He had a bit of a wide trip that day but made a nice late charge in deep stretch to score by ¾ of a length at the wire.  In that win, Powhatan Country ran the final 3/8ths of a mile in 29.36

9-Beatnik (10/1) looks like a nice long shot play in this spot.  A son of Kitten's Joy out of a Gone West mare, Beatnick won his debut effort at Presque Isle Downs on the Polytrack on June 26^th.  The Beyer figure for that race came back abysmally slow (40) but I'm pretty much ignoring that number in this spot.  The key for me is the breeding and the first time start on the lawn; all spring and summer we've seen Kitten's Joy offspring that woke up on the lawn after performing so-so in their dirt or synthetic races.  Graham Motion knows how to handle turf runners and I'd expect Beatnick to out run his 10/1 morning line odds in this race.

-Sunday's Grade 2 Adirondack for juvenile fillies features an extremely contentious field of ten.  Todd Pletcher's 8-Position Limit (5/2) grabs morning line favoritism based of her impressive maiden breaking win at Belmont back on July 14^th, but she's going to face a much sterner test in this spot. 

Bob Baffert ships 4-Alienation (4/1) across the country to run in this spot following her maiden breaking score in a turf Maiden Special Weight at Hollywood Park on July 5^th.  She was a bit green in that debut winning effort but still held on for the win over a field that featured two next out winners, a next out runner-up, and a next out show filly.  If she can take a step forward off of that effort she should fit in nicely with this group even with the surface change. The filly is owned by the Baffert family.

-Monday's Grade 2 Saratoga Special doesn't have the depth of the Adirondack but it's got a bit more star power in the form Kantharos and Sovereign Default.

Kantharos is probably the current default leader of the juvenile division based on his two dominating wins at Churchill Downs in May and July.  He broke him maiden on July 13^th with a 11 ¾ length score in a Maiden Special Weight and followed that up with a 9 ½ length win in the Grade 3 Bashford Manor on July 3^rd where he broke poorly and still blew away the field. 

Sovereign Default only has a maiden score to his credit (July 15^th, MdSpWt @ BEL), but it was a powerful and professional effort for the Northern Afleet colt.  On paper, he appears to be the prime rival for Kantharos.

Here are a few observations I had while reviewing the results charts from the past weekend.

-Mine That Bird got off to his usual slow start in the Whitney (25.52 opening quarter, slowest of the field) and then ran straight :24 second clips for the 2^nd, 3^rd, and 4^th quarters (23.99, 24.05, 23.92).  When it came time to turn for home, he had zero left in the tank (13.55 for the final 1/8^th).

I think it's about time Lukas tries to find a softer spot for this gelding instead of sticking him on the grass and/or throwing him to the wolves in Grade 1 competition.  Right now, he seems like a horse that might be losing interest in the lane.

-Zenyatta ran the final 1/8th of a mile in the Hirsch in 29.39 seconds and the final five furlongs in 53.14.  She went the first half mile in 51.89 seconds.

I hadn't looked at Zenyatta's Classic chart in a while but I was curious as to the internal fractions that she ran that day as compared to some of her more recent races.  As usual, it's hard not to come away extremely impressed. 

Zenyatta broke poorly from the gate in the Classic and ran the slowest initial quarter mile of the field at 26.74 seconds...even slower than Mine That Bird.  Following the first quarter mile, Zenyatta ran the fastest 2^nd, 3^rd, 4^th, and 5^th quarters of any horse in the field and in doing so ran the final mile of the 2009 Classic in 1:33.87.  For comparative purposes, the one mile record on the Santa Anita main track since the conversion to synthetic is 1:33.37 by El Gato Malo in 2008.  On the old dirt course, the one mile track record was 1:33 and 2/5^th by Ruhlmann in 1989.  Zenyatta's final mile was only a few tenths slower than the Santa Anita track record. 

(UPDATE: By the way, how good is Goldikova?  She won the Turf Mile in 1:32.26...um, yeah, that's pretty fast.)

-Majesticeperfection has been ultra-impressive in his last two starts, as well as incredibly consistent.  Check out the internal clockings of his last two victories:

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ARCADIA, CA - NOVEMBER 07: Winner Mike Smith rides Zenyatta races in the Breeders' Cup Classic race during the Breeders' Cup World Championships at Santa Anita Park November 7, 2009 in Arcadia, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

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Updated: Just noticed a couple of omissions from the original table of graded stakes this weekend - I forgot to include the G2-West Virginia Derby and the G3-Seagram Cup Stakes.  Both have been added.

-This weekend's graded stakes action begins with the juvenile fillies in tonight's Grade 3 Sorrento at Del Mar.  Wesley Ward's 6-Sky Mesa (5/2) rolls into this race off three straight victories to begin her career, including back-to-back scores against listed stakes competition at Delaware and Woodbine.  Her most recent effort saw her win the five furlong My Dear Stakes by 7 ¾ lengths in Canada.

Bob Baffert's 3-A Z Warrior (4/1) is a daughter of Bernardini out of a Carson City mare (Carson Jen) and is a half-sister to E Z Warrior, who won the Grade 3 Hollywood Juvenile Championship at six furlongs and the Grade 1 Kings Bishop Stakes at seven.  Not a bad pedigree for this filly and the odds are much nicer than those of Sky Mesa. 

-Zenyatta was made the 1/5 morning line favorite for Saturday's Hirsch Stakes, a number that makes perfect sense in that spot.  If you can pick out while filly or mare will finish second, an ice cold exacta might be the way try andmake some money.

-We get a good opportunity to size up the competition in the Filly & Mare Sprint division in the Grade 1 Test Stakes at Saratoga on Saturday. 

2-Buckleupbuttercup is a filly that I like an awful lot in this spot as I believe the seven furlongs suits her much better than the six furlongs and mile she was asked to run in her last two tries.  In her career in races at 6 ½ or 7 furlongs, Buckleupbuttercup is a solid 4-3-1-0 with a score in the Grade 3 Eight Belles at Churchill on Derby day.  She's got a good late kick and a bunch of fillies in this field that want to go hard early.

9-Christine Daae (15/1) got a lot of attention earlier this year after she blew away a MdSpWt field at Gulfstream and then won at next asking going a mile and an eighth against N1X company.  Since then, however, she's faced some adversity, finishing 5^th in both the Grade 2 Bonnie Miss and the Grade 3 Jersey Shore.  The Jersey Shore was against the boys so perhaps we can forgive the sub-par effort.  Christine Daae, like Buckleupbuttercup, is a filly that may relish the seven furlongs.

Franny Freud was originally entered in this race but has been retired and will scratch out.  She was originally 5/2 on the morning line and her abscence will greatly change the odds we see on the other contenders in this field. With Franny's defection, 1-Pica Slew (7/2) will be the likely favorite after an impressive win in the Grade 3 Azalea at Calder last time out.

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Grade 1 Ruffian
Saratoga
1 1/8 miles
3&up, Fillies & Mares
Purse: $250,000
Post time: 5:30 EDT

What to do with Unriavled Belle (Even) in this spot?  She beats Rachel Alexandra by a head in the La Troienne and then comes back to run a decent, but underwhelming race in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps at Belmont on June 12^th.  She's got back class all over the place but she's also got a pretty gutsy filly to her inside that she's going to have to deal with all the way around the track.

1-Malibu Prayer (2/1) should have the early speed edge on Unrivaled Belle and I would be surprised if Valazquez doesn't try to take this one in wire-to-wire fashion.  The Pletcher trainee has fired three bullets in the morning since her last race, so she would appear to be sharp as she looks for her first Grade 1 victory.

Honestly, I don't know whether I'd be able to play either of those two fillies, or any in this race, as I just don't think there is much money to be made where the two heavy favorites have such a class edge on the rest of the field.

If I was going to try and find an upset choice I suppose I would play the Woodbine shipper, 5-Tasty Temptation (5/1).  She's trying dirt for the first time after winning listed stakes on both synthetic and turf, but the switch doesn't concern me as much with this filly as other synthetic horses due to a) a good amount of dirt success in her pedigree, and b) Woodbine horses seem to make the transition from synthetic to dirt a bit better than horses from other tracks where they race on the plastic. 

I don't think Tasty Temptation is a good play at 5/1; she'd have to be somewhere around 8/1 or 10/1 before I'd take a nibble in the win pool. 

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