The thoughts below will follow no particular pattern, sort of like the Preakness at Old Hilltop yesterday. 

• You spend all these days looking at the form and the past performances and you get to a point that you envision a certain pace scenario.  Yesterday, that scenario looked like a speed duel between Flashpoint, Shackleford, and possible Astrology or Dance City.  The gates opened and the leaders blistered the opening quarter in 22.69 and you think, "hey, they are doing what I thought they'd do!".  Then the rest of the race happens.
  
  The key to the Preakness, and the resulting pace scenario, was (in my opinion) Flashpoint.  After zipping through an opening quarter in 22.69, he slows it down to 24.18 in the second quarter.  If you watched both Flashpoint and Shackleford as they left the gate and went by the finish line for the first time, you could see that Shack was going to go with Flashpoint; he rushed up to join him going into the first turn.  If Flashpoint keeps going hard after that first quarter, Shackleford probably follows and the pace is probably much quicker.
  
  Flashpoint ran six furlongs in 1:12.01 and then backed up badly.  The fact that he backed up didn't surprise most players - he's a sprint pedigree with a sprint profile - but the fact that he didn't run the first six in under 1:11 is surprising. The only way he could have won that race is to make the rest come and get him whiling attempting to grind the rest of the field into the ground. He was either unwilling or unable to do just that, which opened the door for Shackleford.
  
• Jesus Castanon and Shackeford did what they needed to do in the middle stages of the Preakness, helped out a bit by Flashpoint, and come home gamely just as they had in the Florida Derby and the Kentucky Derby.  A nice ride by Castanon, who was able to settle his mount for the second straight time in one of the biggest races of the year. 
  
  I didn't have Shackleford in any of my Preakness wagers but that didn't make it hard to be extremely happy for trainer Dale Romans winning his first Triple Crown race.  A native of Louisville, Kentucky, and seemingly one of the most down-to-earth trainers there is in the sport, Romans deserves every accolade this morning for the training job he's done with the Preakness winner. Hopefully this is the first of many more winners in the Triple Crown series, including (someday) a win in his hometown Kentucky Derby.
• Looking at the internal splits, Animal Kingdom and Dialed In ran the slowest opening quarters in the field (25,82 and 26.24, respectively).  They then ran the fastest 2nd quarter, 3rd quarter and final 3.5 furlongs.  With that in mind, the inability of either horse to stay closer to the lead in the opening quarter really hamstrung them at the end.  Before the race, I thought Dialed In would have an excellent chance to win if he could stay 10 to 12 lengths back early, not the 15+ he was in the Derby.  After a quarter of a mile yesterday, Dialed In was 20+ lengths behind (according to the charts). Game over at that point.
  
  If Nick Zito wants Dialed In to win some races in the future he's going to need to either a) enter a rabbit to ensure a quicker pace, or b) train him to get into the race a bit sooner after leaving the gate because Dialed In is trying to win by running a Zenyatta-style without Zenyatta's talent.
• I'm still waiting for Midnight Interlude to cross the finish line. 
  
• Anybody wondering how Nehro would have done yesterday?  Me too.
• Mucho Macho Man ran 47.74 for the first half-mile and then  finished up the final 3 1/2 furlongs in 45.00. A consistent colt all spring, Mucho seemed to finally hit the wall in the Preakness. 
  
• Animal Kingdom ran the fastest final 3 1/2 furlongs of any colt in the field - 43.61.
• The Beyer figure for the Preakness was 104, with Animal Kingdom duplicating his 103 from the Derby.  Take that for what it's worth.
• It appears all fourteen horses came out of the Preakness in good order and the entire card at Pimlico went off without any major injuries (Paddy O'Prado has a minor foot bruise).  That's always the best news you can hear.
• I have no inclination as to what to expect at the Belmont except to say that if the pace was this slow in the Derby and the Preakness, what in the world is going to happen in the Belmont.  In recent years the pace has been absolutely non-existent in that race and now we've got a field of horses heading to New York that seemingly don't want anything to do with quick fractions.  Here is an early prediction: I think we will see a horse very close to the lead winning the Belmont this year.
• I think it's time for Life At Ten to begin her life-after-racing career.  If you watched her race yesterday, you saw a once top-class mare run about as disinterested a race as a horse can. What more is left to do at this point?
• I'm going to have a bit longer post on this in a day or so, but the best handicapping information to come out of the day at Pimlico yesterday may have been in regards to the turf course.  The most descriptive word I read to describe the conditions yesterday was "demanding", as Steven Crist of the Daily Racing Form called it.  You could also call it brutally slow.
  
  The turf course was rated "GOOD" but I almost feel like they called it that due to the fact that Friday the course was Yielding and it was dry overnight and, therefore, it must be Good.  In reality, the turf course played about as slow as a turf course can play.  The races on the lawn yesterday had speed horses in them; maybe not a ton of speed, but they weren't without pace.  The course, however, was not going to allow a horse to run quick fractions on the front-end. 
  
  Check out the splits from yesterday's turf races at two-turns:
  

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Shackleford, the 4th place finisher at the Derby after leading most of the way, survived a quick duel in the opening quarter mile and then relaxed on the front-end and held off a hard charging Animal Kingdom to win the Preakness at Pimlico.

Animal Kingdom, the Kentucky Derbby winner, split horses midway on the far turn and came with a strong rally in the final quarter mile but, in the end, it was not enough to overtake the game Shackleford.  Astrology finished 3rd with Dialed In rounding out the superfecta.

Shackleford is trained by Dale Romans and ridden by Jesus Castanon.  Congratulations to the connections.

1st: 5-Shackleford - ($27.20, $10.20, $6.80)
2nd: 11-Animal Kingdom - ($4.20, $3.60)
3rd: 1-Astrology - ($8.00)
4th: 10-Dialed In

$1 Exacta: $57.40
$1 Trifecta: $700.90
$0.10 Super: $310.63
$1 Daily Double: $32.60
$0.50 Pick 3: $29.10
$0.50 Pick 4: $135.80
$0.50 Pick 5: $730.65

Fractions:
1/4: 22.69
1/2: 46.87
3/4: 1:12.01
Mile: 1:37.22
Finish: 1:56.47

Internal Splits:
1/4: 22.69
1/2: 24.18
3/4: 25.14
Mile: 25.21
Finish: 19.25

The splits make it abundantly clear where Shackleford won this race; after a very quick opening quarter, the pace slowed to a crawl of 24.18 and 25.14 for the next two splits.  The fourth quarter? 25.21.  Fast, slow, slower.

A little fact related during the broadcast today, and updated after today's Preakness, since the Rebel on 3/19, there have been 15 graded stakes races at a mile or longer on dirt or turf for three-year-olds, and every favorite has lost.

Video replay below the jump.

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Time to get your Preak on! The 136th running of the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico is set to go to post at 6:18pm Easter Time this afternoon.

Animal Kingdom made it from Fair Hill to Pimlico this morning on what is looking like a very nice day in the Baltimore area.(Blood-Horse: Animal Kingdom Arrives on Beautiful Morning)

Pimlico Scratches and Changes
Main Track: FAST
Turf Course: GOOD

Below is a summary of the results and payouts of today's races at Pimlico. Click on the winner's name link to go to the full result chart (via DRF.com).

(Note: the chart below appears best on the "wide" viewing setting.  I try to make all of the charts display best on narrow or wide setting, but wasn't able to make that happen for this one.)

*A dead-heat for the place position in the Gallorette, keying off split payouts for the Ex, Tri and Super.

TV coverage on Versus begins at 2:30p Eastern and runs until 4:30p.  NBC's coverage runs from 4:30p to 6:30p Eastern.

Below are the fractional times for each race.

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(Note: I was planning on a Preakness undercard post going up today, but that will probably not happen until early tomorrow morning.) 

As soon as a horse crosses the wire as the winner of the Kentucky Derby, the question of "can this colt win the Triple Crown?" is put forth.  Over the last 32 years, that question has been answered in the negative.  On Saturday afternoon, Animal Kingdom will attempt to become the twelfth horse since 1978 to pull the Derby/Preakness double, and in the process, take one step closer to ending the Triple Crown drought.

The Preakness Stakes is run at a mile and three-sixteenths distance, one-sixteenth of a mile (or 110 yards) shorter than the Kentucky Derby.  The perceived challenge of the Preakness isn't so much the distance, but the fact that horses that ran in the Derby have just two weeks to rest up before wheeling back for the second leg of the Triple Crown.  While this seems like a daunting task, the reality is a bit different.  Over the last quarter of a century, horses that ran in the Derby have done exceptionally well in the Preakness, and the Kentucky Derby winner has finished in the top three at Pimlico 75% of the time (18-for-24, nine wins). 

Below is a look at the field for the Preakness, along with betting selections.

1-Astrology (15/1): Hasn't won a race since Oct. 31^st of 2010, when he scored in the G2-Iroquois at Churchill Downs.  His last two efforts were decent (2^nd in both the G2-Jerome and G3-Sunland Derby). The 2^nd by Adios Charlie to Alternation in last weekend's Peter Pan Stakes certain flatters him since Adios Charlie beat Astrology in the Jerome).  If Astrology wants to stay close to the lead in the Preakness, like he has in all of this other races, he can't have a poor break or a sluggish beginning.  With the speedy Flashpoint to his outside (as well as Shackleford and Norman Asbjornson), he doesn't have a lot of room for error in the early going. 

2-Norman Asbjornson (30/1): He faded a bit in the final furlong of the G1-Wood Memorial when he was challenging Uncle Mo and Toby's Corner for the top spot.  Prior to that he ran second in the Gotham to Stay Thirsty (just ahead of Toby's Corner),  in probably his best race of the year.  With the exception of the Wood, Norman generally finds himself a length off the pace in the early stages.  When you considering all the speed that is around him today, jockey Julian Pimentel may decide to sit a bit further back than he has in previous races.  This colt hasn't shown a tremendous burst of late speed in any of his races but he seems to fit the profile of a "grinder" that will always put himself in the mix in the final furlongs.

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Over the last 25-years, all but one winner of the Kentucky Derby has gone on to race at Pimlico in the Preakness.  The only exception during that time frame was Grindstone, the 1996 Derby winner that was retired five days after the Derby due to bone chips in his knee. The other 24 horses that have gone on to race in the Preakness have had a good deal of success.  Since 1986, nine Derby winners have won at Pimlico, six have finished 2nd, and three have finished 3rd, for an overall in-the-money success rate of 18-for-24 (75%). 

Below is a list of Kentucky Derby winners and their Preakness finish since 1986.

UPDATE: The draw for the Preakness is done and none of the top contenders got anything in the way of an awful draw (if there was one to be had).  The connections of Astrology and Mr. Commons probably don't care for their positions, and Flashpoint seems to be in a spot the will require him to gun it from the word "go", but the main players ended up in good spots.  Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom, along with Mucho Macho Man, Shackleford and Dialed In are in good spots.

ORIGINAL POST: The post positions for Saturday's Grade 1 Preakness Stakes will be drawn at Pimlico Race Course this afternoon at around 5pm Eastern/2pm Pacific time.  The draw will be carried live on HRTV.  If you don't have HRTV, you can follow the draw along live with this post as I was granted a day of reprieve from jury duty. 

Prior to the Kentucky Derby, I didn't spend the time that I usually do looking through the pedigrees of the contenders.  Sure, I took a glance at the sires and damsires, but nothing more than that. Had I done that I likely wouldn't have had much of a change in the way I viewed the race, but I also wouldn't have been so surprised by the enormous stamina influences in Animal Kingdom's pedigree, which I only delved deeper into after he won the Derby.

Instead of waiting until after the Preakness to actually look at some bloodlines, I've gone ahead a produced some high-level pedigree profiles for the current contenders.

(Note: If you're looking for great pedigree information for present or past thoroughbreds, there are several resources that are a must-read.  Pedigree Query is sort of the holy grail of pedigree information, as is Brisnet's Sire Stats 2011.  Additionally, Blood-Horse.com has excellent information within their Stallion Register Online, while the Thoroughbred Times also provides an excellent Stallion Directory.)

Animal Kingdom: Leroidesanimaux (BRZ) out of Acatenango (GER) (Dalicia (GER))

I've already covered the Derby winner, which you can find at the following link (A Closer Look At Animal Kingdom).  In short, Animal Kingdom is one of the odder pedigrees we've seen from a Derby winner in quite some time.  Tons of stamina, a bottom-half of the pedigree filled with German-breds, a grand-sire that produced Horse of the Year Invasor (ARG) and the very useful broodmare, Candy Girl (ARG) - it's just a fascinating pedigree.  And while pedigree alone won't win Animal Kingdom the Preakness, it's nice to see such strong stamina lines in a classic winner.

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Since the year 2000, the Kentucky Derby has produced a winning horse that paid over $10 for a $2 win bet every year but two.  In that same time span, the Preakness has produced a $10+ winner just two times, a stark contrast to the race that precedes it by two weeks.  Much of the price difference between Derby and Preakness winners can be traced to a couple of different factors.  First, the unknown is much greater in the Derby for many of the colts involved; they've never run 10 furlongs or faced as big or as talented a field as they have in the Derby.  This can create completely unpredictable results but it also clarifies the talent and class questions for many horses before they get to Pimlico.  Second, the Derby field is significantly larger than the Preakness (20 vs. 14 starters), a fact that in and of itself can cause great variation in results due to pace and trip.

While the Preakness tends to not be as chaotic of a race as the Derby,  the large field and big pools still create good wagering opportunities.  However, unlike the Derby, a player has to be a bit more selective in what pools to get involved with and, more importantly, where to find value.  Simply "having it" will not necessarily result it a big payday, like it does on Derby day.

Below is a summary of the pari-mutuel payouts at the Preakness since 2000.  (I've split the data into two charts - one for vertical wagers and one or horizontal wagers - for display purposes.)

Preakness Horizontal Wagers, 2000-2010

*The "P/S DD" is the Preakness/Black-Eyed Susan Daily Double.

I've normailized the data so that they all reflect the same minimum amount across the years.  Not all years offered the same wagering base amount.

Some thoughts on the payouts over the last 10+ years:

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